Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

Here is some charts that i took trade last nite, and some of them is up to now set up

One more thing i want to say to all whom using pitchfork. Rules of trading pitchfork does not apply all the time. You have to flexible in all market conditions.

Yes, I can relate to that. IMHO your red downsloping fork has its Po in unchartered territory. At least that would be too risky for me. In a sideways ranging market or chipchop I would probably take the safest overall down fork emcompassing the range.....a bit like Nhat shows with AJ. A modified Schiff seems to work quite well in sideways or choppy market structures. For me at the moment, that is.

But if I look at Nhats, Anthonis and Kapitals charts long enough, I am sure I will slowly make better toddler moves.....

__________________
michael

Hi pipin
You have to look at the overall market structure & PA.

Here is my view on AJ .

Regards,
TAQ

QUOTE OF THE DAY!!!

Hi NG,

I was out last week but am reviewing the posts. I'm glad your 10/21 chart worked out for you, BUT... your AU H1 chart is missing around 3 days worth of data, including the peak of 1.0003 on Oct 15, ~8:15AM ET (NY).

If you had the missing bars you would not have seen a "perfect touch and reverse" as is in your post. On my chart here, the yellow circle shows price fell well short of the UML, whereas on your chart, it touched. On my chart, the blue circle would have been a good ML target for your short, and as you can see, it touched exactly and bounced long. This was slightly above your preferred target on your chart.


I'm just letting you know you had some kind of Ensign data problem that caused the missing H1 bars. It was enough to affect the fork, but fortunately for you (I hope), the trade worked out anyway.

ForkTrader,

I've been away from trading much of the past month, but I always take the time to catch up with this thread. It's helpful to see the old posts and bring up the current charts and find out how well the various traders projections turned out.

There are several very good traders that post here (and I thank everyone for posting and keeping this thread active). You, however, are certainly way up there on my list. (You get my first vouch).

First of all, most of your charts suggest trades that do actually work out well. I don't know the percentage but it's pretty high.

Second, for the most part you post your charts live, before the outcome is known. This is a great help to me and others. I can only hope to read PA as well as you. Kudos to you.

Third, your charts are clean and clear. Nice job.

Fourth, you give helpful suggestions and comments to others which is always appreciated.


Anyone wanting to learn pitchforks could do well to just review your old posts (and those of other posters) and open up the equivalent current charts to compare. (You like tick charts too, but as I have only MT4, I make do with just the time-based charts).

I could go on, but you get my point... and my thanks. I only wish I had an easy way to tell my computer to make an alert noise whenever you make a post, because it's often an opportunity to check out a possible good trade.


Your profile says you are in the U.S. as am I. (Mountain zone myself). Do you stay up late a lot? Get up early? Do you ever sleep? (lol) What hours seem to work the best for you when trading forex pitchforks?


Thanks again,
Kent (pips4life)

Thanks, but what was wrong with the chart, and the trade that I took?..thats what I'd like someone to tell me. I took short off the line like i was suposed to do. Price tested that red fork line about 7 times before I took my trade, but like the others, they ended going against me. Getting tired of playing guessing games, especailly when I rarely "win".

If someone stands in front of a door and knocks on it for a considerable length of time and then leaves and returns to sit in front of it again and knocks some more, that lets me know he/she is serious about wanting the door opened.

This is how I look at it: I know this is after the fact but
it seems to work for me. I always start with higher timeframe and draw my
my biggest fork which is the major trend fork, in your chart I see it was the limegreen color.

The price moved from the top to the bottom of that fork, you see there was last big long swing down. I see it as an exhaustion thrust that means the downward move cycle is about to end.

And then you see price turned north with a lot of speed/ momentum this show new cycle begin which is UPTREND and I would not go SHORT until it reaches the top of the limegreen upper ML unless price action pushes it and break the lower ML

You entered the market right when price doing pullback on its way to go UP which is against the trend.

As you know I'm no expert and fairly new to this but this way of looking a ML works for me. Sometimes I wonder why I got stopped out all the time, it's because I didn't listen to te bigger TimeFrame. Hopefully more experienced traders here would share their thought.


Hope this help a little bit...Good luck!
tony
PS:bottom chart
-Daily median line a very STRONG S/R

-and momentum on LOWER TF when price getting close to this

My 2 cents...

Drawing forks is something of an art, and I'm not one who has mastered it either. That said, when I look at your chart, I have a few observations.

You drew the red pitchfork. Right off the bat (after the 3rd point), price did indeed reach the median-line and even surpassed it by a quartile, then bounced up close to the UML parallel, and then and retested your ML perfectly before it went up and even busted through the UML. Arguably this PF has already met the supposed statistical claim that price will reach the ML 80% of the time.

After these first two touches, for the next several hours price hung *above* the UML. You drew in a parallel line that price did respect for several hours and then it broke down and yet again tested the ML (for the 3rd, and so far, last time).

At this point, it rose again, broke right through the UML again, and when it did somewhat respect your parallel line above the UML, you took a short. If your chart is accurate where you took the trade, you were probably +50 pips at one point before you eventually took a loss. Maybe closing 1/2 or even all of the trade would have been the thing to do, but that's in hindsight. Was your setup really a good one? Then stick with your positions. If the setup wasn't that solid, taking 1/2 off might be a good practice. You could have broke even or better in this example (again, useless hindsight).

The fact that price hung out so much above the UML suggests to me that the PF downward slope is too strong because it's not holding price action.

Looking again at your red pitchfork, the 1st point origin is a swing point, yes, but there happens to be yet a higher swing point to the left about 60 hours. With such a PF, the highs on Oct 14 barely exceeded the UML, and the lows on Oct 20 fell just short. That suggests to me that my PF slope is still *slightly* too sharp. Back up the 1st point about 6 hours and you'll see that the UML and LML lines touch exactly. (see figure).

What this new PF shows is some pretty good resonance with an early attempt to break down that was followed by a rally up to the ULM. After that, it broke down to the LML and bounced HARD. You saw that bounce and were looking for a place to short it. But if I've seen the LML of a PF bounce as hard as this one did with a strong bullish thrust as it did, there is not much sign of real weakness to suggest that price will continue lower than the previous Oct 20 low. Sure it could have, and I'll be the first to say that I would not have been clear about it's future path. I can only say that to me it felt like you went short kind of in the middle of a confusing section, in the middle of quartiles, according to THIS pitchfork.

One difficulty with PF's is there are so many different pivots, and therefore just as many pitchforks. I like to stick with the most major (extreme H/L) pivots whenever possible.

One other possible analysis is this: This chart is the AUDJPY. This "cross" pair is at all times simply the multiplication of two other charts, the AUDUSD, and the USDJPY. For your short of AJ to have worked, then either or both of AU and UJ must have gone down. Did you look at those other charts? Did you see any sign of AU weakness or UJ weakness? Yes the AU had just gone down (from 1.0003), perhaps from a peak. But on a long term chart, it looks somewhat like it just fell to the lower edge of a very long rising channel.

For UJ, well everyone knows about the threats for BoJ intervention, and if they do jump in you don't want to be short the UJ (or any *J pair). The UJ to me looks as if it's attempting to find support. (Eventually I think it will in fact fall a bit farther after it keeps getting smacked down from rallies).

Just something to consider when trading cross pairs.


The bottom line here? You drew a decent fork and it *might* have worked, but you can see from mine and the charts of others who replied that there were perhaps some additional forks to consider. Look for the best setup opportunities always, but try drawing some alternative forks to keep from getting emotionally attached to some expected outcome. A remember that PF lines are NOT always about bouncing (countertrend). Sometimes they are for accelerating the move. (I'm not sure that was in play in this example, but it is in others).


Good luck,
Kent

I traded with the trend on the 1hr charts. Yes I have daily analysis too though.

If I have to look at a million different charts, then I'm never going to learn anything, because its going to be too confusing. I tried looking at 20min also, but thats just too time consuming. I keep my eye on 1hr and daily 99% of the time. When we broke down on the 19th, I was sure we were going to run south a few 100 pips...obviously not.

This is one reason i dont like forks. It's too subjective. At least with a stochastics, a crossover is a crossover...plain and simple, no arguing facts, but with forks, its all about what the trader sees.

Obviously we dont all draw our charts the same, and for that reason, there is no "right" answer.

I guess so...

Thanks pips4life for nice comments and a vouch. I greatly appreciate it. I trade 2 hours before London session opens to all the way NY session ends. Mostly 12 to 14 hours a day, I enjoy trading so it does not seem like a lot of work.
I have homes in Arizona & Dubai.

Isnt this with every trading method, its all about what a trader sees. There is always a bullish a bearish setup working side by side in every market, as there are bulls and bears and a disagreement on price.
Just accept the fact that you were late to the party and missed it, but there may be another party about to start but at a different place. Please look at my attached chart and if you like tell me why you have not shorted AJ at pt A and pt B. Who was stopping you?

Gold heading down again

Thank you, I am watching AUDUSD and its always very good to have a look at Gold.

AU now possibly at previous resistance forming support.....

Hello Tony,

very good, thank you. That´s about what I am trying to do - and in an effort to keep it as simple as possible.

The " art " probably relates to the ability to see the appropriate major Pivots, which is screen time and learning from the " elders ".

Great posts, thanks to all.


___________________
michael

Heading south again?

No problem. We're all here to share, learn and maybe make some dough