AUD/USD

In three and a half hours, Ben bernanke speaks to try and indicate the size of QE2. As economists try and read into his speech the Aussie dollar will pull back slightly. Maybe around the .9925 area or .9955 area. Depends where it is at the time. With current strength it may move back as far as .9917 before heading back up.
The Aussie is currently over bought on the RSI and keeping steady.
My MA indicators on the 15min chart have touched and about to cross over in a downward direction, showing that the current move is cooling off.

Let us see how it plays out.

Anybody seen how strong the Aud/Cad pair has been going. Wow, it really shows how strong the Aussie dollar is getting.

Just a month ago it was a round the .95's and .97's, and now steady over a dollar.

Everyone is short the dollar expecting bad news, the sell off started Sunday night and gained momentum early this morning.

Now, think about it...

Everyone expects bad news, how bad can it be? Our imaginations are always worse than anything anyone could do, so whatever the news the expectation will be that it would have been worse will be driving this.

If its as expected, then expect a sell off, only if its much worse would I expect it to move up.

Sell or buy the rumour, dump the fact.


Mike Haran

USD is currently Moving to the previous lows from Nov'94.

USD is losing value and the Aussie moving up higher which is the cause of the AUD's moves higher.

Is there a buy opportunity at the 80.00 mark? I would say it will Bounce off that and give you at least a 50-100 pip move.

Hey mike your right!
That's why it is better to wait until the news is out. Then you can see new direction.

Cut my losses it seems like the best play .99081 hmmmmm cant it reteace to 86 hahahah

The Australian dollar was valued at $1.10 from 1950 through to 1970.

Now that is a fact! Wow, huh.

Then through to 1975 when it went to $1.50

Did you know that a price of a big Mac, inn Australian dollars of course is $2.18.

Do you remember the price of petrol in 1983?

Wow man. It was only 0.47cents per litre.

In 1993 it was 0.68cents per litre. And in 2003 it was 0.96cents.

2010 is now at 1.24cents per litre.

In 1975, it was 40 cents a gallon

Sorry i meant in australia. It is all quoted by Australian facts. Not American.

Oh, but you meant in 1975. I get ya mate! No worries. I am not sure in 1975 but now i know. I was quoting some news from today's paper here in Sydney, daily telegraph. Hehe... cheers.

Bernanke speaks in one hour! Woohoo....

Hey Pqt, they say history repeats itself. You think we will hit the price like back in the 70's??

Who ya think I am? Nostradamus?

Whatever Ben says, I would say that "the market had already priced in the news", how many times have we seen the financial experts come up with that old chestnut.

Think like a dealer, where are the stops, you all will be more than aware of being stopped out in a trade and wondering why did it get you maybe even to the exact pip. Its because we all read the same technical analysis books.

Often have I read, put your stop above the last high or low, haha yes so the dealers know exactly where they are. I bet there are a ton of new traders fresh to the market having read the most recent hyped up trading book usually produced by someone that does not trade or even worse may actually be a dealer or work for a broker. You think that these people may not have a bias. I do, countless stop outs taught me most books are plain WRONG.

Let see what happens, if the news is nothing new I would be fading.

Good luck to you all

Mike Haran

still trying to short this I see...

Some interesting tidbit about AUD and CAD: In November 2007, CAD was at all time high against USD @1.10 while AUD/USD was @0.94
This time around, CAD/USD is languishing around .98 while Aussie is on a tear.
Food for thought?

I thought about that quite some time ago.... question came up, what then is stopping the AUD from going to 1.10?

One big factor is 2007 was a record year in term of M&A plays in favor of Canada.
We have not seen that many yet for Australia so far, but the current surge of Aussie is in part underpinned by an M&A play.