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AUD/USD

  • #24,621
  • Oct 24, 2010 3:33am Oct 24, 2010 3:33am
im a swinger guy~~~!!!! lets hav swinger partyyyyy
Swinger Club
  • #24,622
  • Oct 24, 2010 5:05am Oct 24, 2010 5:05am
Lowyat82 :-)

DMA in answer to your questions

How many pips will the fall be

I expect the fall to be greater in time and price then any correction in the move up so in excess of 552 points and greater than 9 days, this is the minimum requirement. In practice I would expect a retrace of approximately 68% or more, a fall in the order of 900 points or so.

What's you're history of predicting tops and bottoms?

I started using just price, this meant that I had no clue which level it would be. In the last month time started to make sense to me. I am still learning it but let me show you a chart of the GBPUSD, where I was predicting swing levels, before price got to them. I have attached the results of what happened showing how the levels were spot on. Now I know how to predict time levels I would have nailed the first turn and the second to the bar.

If you can predict possible price levels time gives you the second cross hair on which to nail price. As the market is a chaotic system, I am not always correct, but I could show you countless examples where both time and price prediction is possible.

There are two ways to trade this method, one way is with very small stops, lets say you stick to the 4H chart, you should be able to trade with 50 pip stops, usually the moves on say the GBPUSD are approx 200 points so if you can hit 70% winning trades then

7X200=1400 pips
3X50=-150
Profit 1250 pips

even trading at 50:50 you will still make money, most traders fail as they let losses run and close trades in profit quickly. A trade in profit should be allowed to run if in the trend direction.

In 2007 I predicted we would crash, I sold my flat in the UK and moved. Knowing what I know now I would have nailed the top to within a day and about 50 pips. My mentor called the day of the turn on the S&P. I wish I knew then what I know now, it has been a very hard journey.

The markets can be predicted, not all the time, but they can sometimes. Part of the skill is knowing when not to predict and when to predict.

If I have not answered your questions in enough detail please let me know.

Mike Haran
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h result.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #24,623
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:31am Oct 24, 2010 8:31am
Quoting Mike Haran
That last call of mine sucked badly, I had in mind a wave 4 pulling up to a 38-50% retrace, it pulled up some some 78%, unexpected in my mind. I thought I knew, I don't the market will always be right I won't.

I did mention to use a big stop of about 100 plus pips, so even though I was wrong in my price and time I could still exit that trade with a profit. Once price exceeded my time and price level I knew I was wrong so I waited and got out.

If you look at my chart you will see a line at 16:00 on the 21:10:2010, that where I expected a turn....
Hey Mike,
Nobody is trying to prevent you from posting, but if you have the guts to post your calls, you should have the guts to follow thru, good or bad. Nothing irks me more than some young gun get in here bragging about his credentials and making bold predictions like the world owes it to him, but then goes silent if things don't go his way. Don't forget in this game we are swimming with sharks, BIG sharks, and no matter if we are mofos or mofas, we have to be on the lookout for them, they don't watch out for us.
Peace and Good luck.
  • #24,624
  • Edited 9:29am Oct 24, 2010 9:12am | Edited 9:29am
Week Oct-10 Oct-17
High 1.00019 0.99572
Open 0.98939 0.98768
Close 0.98770 0.98123
Low 0.97655 0.96608

Candle Spread 236.4 296.4
Body Spread 16.9 64.5

Upper Wick 108.0 80.4
Lower Wick 111.5 151.5

On the weekly we had a spinning top for the week of Oct. 10 followed by lower low on all readings for the week of Oct. 17. All of this on increasing volume.

If this is not a top it would be a great fake. Time will tell but I'm most definately short biased at this point.
  • #24,625
  • Oct 24, 2010 9:43am Oct 24, 2010 9:43am
Commodities is Bullish (which affects greatly commodities based currencies such as AUD and CAD). China's GDP is very Bullish and China is a major buyer of Australian Commodities. Therefore, Australia will remain bullish (as long as China is Bullish).

We did have AUDUSD reaching parity a few days ago. And most traders think it is time to go short for whatever reasons.

Hmm.. Personally I do not know though I am inclined (subjectively) to think Short as well but somewhere inside of me thinks to go long because of bullish commodities market.
  • #24,626
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:34am Oct 24, 2010 10:34am
Approximately every 68-70 trading days we get a fourier cycle, these are not always from previous lows or highs sometimes when the market is conjesting you will get a strong push on these cycle points.

Thing is they often are close to highs, lows or dramatic moves, you can see the polarity of the move is not always clear. We are approaching a point cycle point pretty soon. What I did note was that often these moves are of the order of 1,000 points and typically you use a 100 pip stop with these trades. Using pattern analysis and fib levels it should be able to work out where the greatest chance for a reversal is. It could also be that a better analysis then fourier could be used for this work.


Mike Haran
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  • #24,627
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:50am Oct 24, 2010 10:50am
Quoting jtfx
Commodities is Bullish (which affects greatly commodities based currencies such as AUD and CAD). China's GDP is very Bullish and China is a major buyer of Australian Commodities. Therefore, Australia will remain bullish (as long as China is Bullish).

We did have AUDUSD reaching parity a few days ago. And most traders think it is time to go short for whatever reasons.

Hmm.. Personally I do not know though I am inclined (subjectively) to think Short as well but somewhere inside of me thinks to go long because of bullish commodities market.
If you look at USD/CAD chart you will see the reason why people try to short AUD/USD. AUDUSD maybe a different beast but at least it still stays below the down TL on 4H TF since it reach parity. I m still bias in the downside until it break that TL and hold above 0.9900.
  • #24,628
  • Oct 24, 2010 11:26am Oct 24, 2010 11:26am
I continue to watch that triangle pattern closely (man, I love that word ). A decisive breakout means a potential ~250 pips target, which on the upside would correspond to 1.01 level, my favorite level to go short.
A break to the downside would give strong possibility that a top is in place and correction would begin in earnest.
  • #24,629
  • Oct 24, 2010 4:32pm Oct 24, 2010 4:32pm
Hey Mike, i too am usually just reading and not posting.

But want to take the time to thank you for your insights. Im not a new trader but i found sense in what you posted so yeah a little appreciation there, dont stop posting imo.


Teach us more about cycles and predictions, it is true that market can be predicted at times, just like using pitchforks etc. but not all the time, reacting to the market should be the mainplay but nevertheless predictions must be used in reacting aswell its just a an alchemy.

anyway, any books to recommend on Cycles ? How do u get those blue lines? what lines are they call? ( 162% , 145% , 127%) What does the 28 day in your chart mean? I would like to learn more about cycles!


Cheers,

Edgar Ng
  • #24,630
  • Oct 24, 2010 5:09pm Oct 24, 2010 5:09pm
Fun facts about the number 28 that I lifted from another site:

Fun facts about the number 28:
- 28 is a perfect number.
- There are 28 digits in one cubit.
- It takes the Moon a little less than 28 Earth days to orbit around the Earth. The lunar day is also a little less than 28 Earth days.
- A 28-sided polygon is called an icosikaioctagon.
- February usually has 28 days.
- 28 is a triangle number.
- The string 28 was found at position 33 counting from the first digit after the decimal point in pi.
- XXVIII, 11100, 34, and 1C are all different ways of expressing the number 28.
  • #24,631
  • Oct 24, 2010 5:56pm Oct 24, 2010 5:56pm
SWWINNGGGG~~~~ today we had a early swingggg.. must b from d G20 meetin.. wahahahaha~~~
Swinger Club
  • #24,632
  • Oct 24, 2010 5:59pm Oct 24, 2010 5:59pm
Like I have posted previously. The AUD/USD was trading sideways into a wedge ready to break out. It has now broken to the upside where it will start to hit higher after the SGX has reported a take over bid for the ASX.
Aussie dollar now moving upwards to retrace previous highs. We are talking about valuation, the Aussie will now seek a higher price to retest it's previous highs. Due to a very important take over bid, once again Australian companies are sold to overseas investors. Making investing in Australia more risky.

My predictions for the previous price targets are valuation prices which have been targeted and obtained. I don't have any new target prices I can confidently provide right now as i wait for further price action. Once I receive the new price targets i shall post it for you all.

If the dollar hit over .9925 you need to start getting bullish on the dollar. .9955 is the next price for it's previous price action due to fib retracement. First retracement point has been obtained at .9900 second is the .9955.

I am bullish on the dollar for today. Look for pullbacks as the Aussie does not have any bad news to lose ground.
  • #24,633
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:00pm Oct 24, 2010 6:00pm
This may be the upside breakout.
Quoting pqt
I continue to watch that triangle pattern closely (man, I love that word ). A decisive breakout means a potential ~250 pips target, which on the upside would correspond to 1.01 level, my favorite level to go short.
A break to the downside would give strong possibility that a top is in place and correction would begin in earnest.
  • #24,634
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:34pm Oct 24, 2010 6:34pm
Above 0.9900
SHORT Time!
  • #24,635
  • Oct 24, 2010 6:42pm Oct 24, 2010 6:42pm
This is my view. Do you know that dogs always dig their food under the ground no matter how much are on the plate ? It's willing to dive maybe about 240ft under ground just to get it foods. To me, 0.9936 is the line of defence to the north atm. Should there be an invisible hand probably it can only reach 1.0039 at this point of typing. Anyhow I am just a joker , pls don't follow me.. peace !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,636
  • Oct 24, 2010 7:07pm Oct 24, 2010 7:07pm
issit so? coz my dog, whenever no food left in his mug, he will go inside my house to take food =.=! he even go take onions..zzzzzzzzzzzz..
Swinger Club
  • #24,637
  • Oct 24, 2010 7:23pm Oct 24, 2010 7:23pm
As you can see my previous notes provide you future inside info on where the dollar will go......

Quoting truenoteno
Currently the Aussie is pulling back as it trades on upside trend. Aussie has no reason to sell off to much unless it is weakened by bad economic data which will cause a sell off. So i currently see the Aud moving upwards further as it reprices itself around that .9850 critical level. I see a Buy opportunity on lower levels above .9750's as it awaits the Feds amount of QE2 in November, until then you will not even see a rate hike from the Australian Reserve in November as December looks more probable if data shows inflation concerns.
On the upside...
  • #24,638
  • Oct 24, 2010 7:30pm Oct 24, 2010 7:30pm
The bulls are on people. On it's way to second retracement level, watch for a small pullback before moving higher.

Dow jones futures has almost retraced it's previous highs, so look out for further upside move before the U.S. Exchange open tonight.

Aussie dollar may reach over a 1.00 dollar again tonight.
  • #24,639
  • Oct 24, 2010 7:42pm Oct 24, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting lowyat82
issit so? coz my dog, whenever no food left in his mug, he will go inside my house to take food =.=! he even go take onions..zzzzzzzzzzzz..
yeah, u mb right swinger. your dog must hv finish university my upper most short hs bn collected in profit 2b used @ 0.9933 . Its too risky trade at this level but I will take it. No worries, money is always there in the market
  • #24,640
  • Oct 24, 2010 8:53pm Oct 24, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
This may be the upside breakout.
Now I'm watching the ascending triangle with great interest !
An upside break would point to a potential target of 1.025 (unless reality sets in, of course!)
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