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  • #24,601
  • Oct 22, 2010 5:44pm Oct 22, 2010 5:44pm
Appreciate the time you invest here Mike, thanks

Quoting Mike Haran
Firstly, I am not able to define a turn point and tell you that it will turn, put the farm on it. Those of you that think that anyone including me can tell what the market will do definately, well its chaotic so it can do pretty much anything.

However, I am still in my sell trade, because I set correct stops, I was able to get out of those positions because the market is in a range and to be honest in these conditions you could do anything and make money, not a lot but enough.

My turn on the 21st at 16:00 was a high not a low, accurate to 1...
  • #24,602
  • Oct 22, 2010 5:46pm Oct 22, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting Mike Haran
Firstly, I am not able to define a turn point and tell you that it will turn, put the farm on it. Those of you that think that anyone including me can tell what the market will do definately, well its chaotic so it can do pretty much anything.

However, I am still in my sell trade, because I set correct stops, I was able to get out of those positions because the market is in a range and to be honest in these conditions you could do anything and make money, not a lot but enough.

My turn on the 21st at 16:00 was a high not a low, accurate to 1...
always willing to learn Mike! Thanks for sharing...
assume the position...whichever that may be
  • #24,603
  • Oct 22, 2010 7:35pm Oct 22, 2010 7:35pm
swing here swing there~~~!! SWINGGGGGG
Swinger Club
  • #24,604
  • Oct 22, 2010 8:14pm Oct 22, 2010 8:14pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting lowyat82
swing here swing there~~~!! SWINGGGGGG
Instead of posting such useless messages, why don't you contribute constructivley and show us a chart displaying your trade/proposed trades. That way we will know what you are talking about.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,605
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:15pm Oct 22, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting damo
Instead of posting such useless messages, why don't you contribute constructivley and show us a chart displaying your trade/proposed trades. That way we will know what you are talking about.
i prefer not to expose my positions as it will put my trade in danger conditions. moreover, my views r extremely bias to d side which m gonna trade.

cheers~~~
Swinger Club
  • #24,606
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:20am Oct 23, 2010 7:20am
Yes lowyat 82 messages maybe pointless, but I always read them and it always makes me laugh. Jokes are pointless too but if they make you happy then they have helped in this otherwise gloomy old world. There are enough people on this thread to make it excellent. I want everyones comments, opinions and views together we can make headway, working as a team. People are divided by politics, religions and faiths even age, thats why we are in this mess.

All of us on this forum are seeking knowledge, we are open enough to share our views, we should all focus on the task before us and unite as one powerful force. There must be 100's of bright people on the thread, as trading tends to attract the people with more intelligence, as by its nature, its complex, or certainly seems so. We all should focus on a single goal and that is making money as a team, we can all work together on this and combine our knowledge, skills and experience to help each other. Rather than try to pick holes in other peoples work we should contribute. I for one would never take a slice at someone who was trying to help.

So let me start, piviot points are very useful, some currencies tend to react off them some don't. The AUD seems to respect them. So it is worthwhile to have them on a chart.

Auto Pivots is one I use and can be found on this forum I would post mine but, for some reason its not showing up in my indicator file. If you have a problem finding it let me know and I will pull it off my other computer.

Now, I will show you how I approach the AUDUSD in steps.
  • #24,607
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:13am Oct 23, 2010 8:13am
Firstly, I use a zig zag with the settings 3,5,3, I don't believe in elliot waves, but I like to look at the swings, and where abouts in the move we are.

Next, I draw a channel to see where price is, especially in a channel, is it at the bottom or the top of the channel, or has it broken out. We can see that the AUDUSD has broken out to the downside. A green trend line is to the upside a red trend line is to the downside, so when I go to a 4H chart I know should I sell or should I buy.

Next, I map out support and resistance levels, because they are critical to give me an indication of what is happening.

Step 4
Finally, I put on the one of the only indicators I use Auto Pivots. then I go down to the 4H time time frame and map out where I expect a turn to happen. Because we have a weekend, the turn won't occur of course because the markets do not trade on a weekend.

Step 5
You can see we have had 3 waves down, then a big bounce, so it could be an ABC correction, if the market does not take out what would be a wave 2 then a 4th wave has occured, so now we have a point where the market should not trade in order to support the downside, we are going sideways, indicating a corrective wave, supporting the idea of a 4th wave.

So what to expect?

A break below the last low (DAILYS S3) would indicate a 5th corrective wave to be followed by a corrective rally. This would imply a A wave has played out. As A waves are part of a larger corrective pattern, wave 4 can break the top of wave 1, in fact it did by 38% which was what I said it could do in an earlier post, corrective A waves are usually followed by5 ABC three wave structures subdividing into (5,3,5) structures and they are usually hard and fast, comming up to 78-88% of the fall down, then either a C wave or an impulse down will occur, this is the move to catch as it is the longest and most powerful move.

So at the moment its home on the range for me, until I can see where this market is going, I am flat, break below the last low, I would go long, if it breaks the 4th wave high, then it was a 3 wave correction down that should exceed the last high at 1.00. I will use pattern analysis to then try to nail the top.

All have a great weekend.


Mike Haran
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  • #24,608
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:50am Oct 23, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Mike Haran
Yes lowyat 82 messages maybe pointless, but I always read them and it always makes me laugh. Jokes are pointless too but if they make you happy then they have helped in this otherwise gloomy old world. There are enough people on this thread to make it excellent. I want everyones comments, opinions and views together we can make headway, working as a team. People are divided by politics, religions and faiths even age, thats why we are in this mess.

All of us on this forum are seeking knowledge, we are open enough to share our views, we should...
pivot has been successful since jesse livemore time..lol. me use it as well.
Swinger Club
  • #24,609
  • Oct 23, 2010 12:23pm Oct 23, 2010 12:23pm
Here I go out on a limb predicting a potential top. Often the markets like to fool everyone, they make a dive, all the traders go short, just to rise again and take out the last high, by miles,everyone is stopped out, many reverses and go long only to see the markets reverse and take them out.

So here is a prediction (not 100% cast iron sure) but a date to watch, as it can be out by a day or so, usually later not usually earlier. I have two dates for you.

2nd.11.2010

or

7th.11.2010

These are two date I would look at for a top, if it is not already in, comming into these two dates I would start to zero in on price levels.

These are as follows:
1.00273
1.01461
1.02277

I am not saying the market is going to go to these levels all I am saying is IF on these days the AUDUSD is trading at one of these levels it would have me shorting. I don't know what will happen, I only forecast price and time points where I would short the market if it arrives there.

Kind regards to all and have a great weekend


Mike Haran
  • #24,610
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:17pm Oct 23, 2010 5:17pm
Having sat down and computed out a fourier function to extract the dominant cycle period from the AUDUSD, I come up with a figure of 183 days, from the last main low at the start of this trend we have 183 calender days from the low to the 24.10.2010, so cyclically we are in a position to put a top in.

The other cycles in the AUD will be
91
45
22
11
6

These are approximations and will vary, but in effect all of these cycles will work to act constructively or destructively, at major tops all cycles are in phase.

If any programmers are reading this I would be more than happy to work with you in this area to forecast future price turning zones.


All the best


Mike Haran
  • #24,611
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:20pm Oct 23, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting Mike Haran
Firstly, I use a zig zag with the settings 3,5,3, I don't believe in elliot waves, but I like to look at the swings, and where abouts in the move we are.

Next, I draw a channel to see where price is, especially in a channel, is it at the bottom or the top of the channel, or has it broken out. We can see that the AUDUSD has broken out to the downside. A green trend line is to the upside a red trend line is to the downside, so when I go to a 4H chart I know should I sell or should I buy.

Next, I map out support and resistance levels, because they...

Mike,
Thanks for your informative input. It’s good to see a trader with a well thought out plan…I know, not fixed in stone, but thoughtful planning will always come out in front.
Thanks
  • #24,612
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:43pm Oct 23, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting Mike Haran
I have two dates for you.

2nd.11.2010

or

7th.11.2010

These are two date I would look at for a top, if it is not already in, comming into these two dates I would start to zero in on price levels.


Mike Haran
Hi Mike Haran.

how did you get this dates ?
Funny in 2nd Nov we have RBA meeting
7th is Sunday so I guess that will not work.

The whole week will be extreme for Forex traders. So funny you pick that week.

What means a top for you ? How many pips will the fall will be ? 100 - 200 3000 ? What's you're history of predicting tops and bottoms ?

My personal opinion especially for new Forex traders is that they should not be in the business of predicting. They should focus on price action and go with the trend - the trend is where the big money is. So how come retail traders want to fight the big money ?

DMA
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #24,613
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:10pm Oct 23, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Hi Mike Haran.

how did you get this dates ?
Funny in 2nd Nov we have RBA meeting
7th is Sunday so I guess that will not work.

The whole week will be extreme for Forex traders. So funny you pick that week.

What means a top for you ? How many pips will the fall will be ? 100 - 200 3000 ? What's you're history of predicting tops and bottoms ?

My personal opinion especially for new Forex traders is that they should not be in the business of predicting. They should focus on price action and go with the trend - the trend is where the big...
I would have more confidence in his "predictions" and "market timing" if at least his first call had some positive outcome:

Quoting Mike Haran
I have placed one order beneath the last hourly bar low, one order at 0.97910, I will cancel one order if the other order is filled. I also have an order at 0.9800 just in case.

This trade can be left as my next turn is 5am tommorrow morning, so I am leaving this now, I expect the low of yesterday to be taken out and then some.

Good luck to you all


Mike Haran
Or would blame be put again on "chaotic nature" of the market?
We all know that, I can also flip a coin.
  • #24,614
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:31pm Oct 23, 2010 6:31pm
Always the trend is and will be your edge as a trader, trying to predict tops or bottoms is a very difficult and costly business especially if you are new to this business, I do not recommend it.

However, trends do reverse so as a trader a heads up to a trend reversal area is a point where you should sit up and take notice.

Once you think you are in an area for a top or bottom formation then watch how price moves, put a bollinger band on the daily chart and wait for price to hit the bottom if you are coming from a top, then wait for it to pull up and not move through the top band. That your signal to short and hold on tight.

DMA Trader, the dates are calculated using Hurst analysis and fourier transformation theory. Just because its Sunday, does not mean its not the start of a turn, its amazing how many turns start on a Sunday. Always go with the trend its where the money is. But like two runners one that has run 20 miles and the other having done a mile. One will collapse at some point, wait for the collapse the market will always let you know, my money would be on the one thats just done the 20 miles, but he might also be able to muster another 5, so wait for the fall, but be aware of it.

The market anatomy at a top is often the same, a period of big days, some large moves down looking like the top is in only to reverse and power up, taking your stop with it. We are seeing that at the moment, this is what makes me think we might get one last push up, just to take out all the stops. All markets do the opposite of what the crowd want, everyone was anticipating 1.0, so the number of stops up there must be huge, the market goes where the money is, it is a logical.

Clear the 1 level and grab the cash, all the retail traders are dust and the market is free to fall. Look at the GBPUSD, it approached the 2 level broke it by nearly 1000 pips then it fell 6500 pips. Chance I think not, the big boys don't want you along for the ride. You are playing against really clever people, they have deeper pockets are better connected, and are much more experienced. This is not a video game, those big moves are the players and they are the people who play this game, you are either the sheep or the wolf, if you don't know who you are all I have to say to you is woof.

Mike Haran
Having worked out what the cycles in the AUD are, the next big cycle is 6.12.2010, so once the top is in every high should move lower and every low should move lower, until the next cycle.
  • #24,615
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:09pm Oct 23, 2010 7:09pm
That last call of mine sucked badly, I had in mind a wave 4 pulling up to a 38-50% retrace, it pulled up some some 78%, unexpected in my mind. I thought I knew, I don't the market will always be right I won't.

I did mention to use a big stop of about 100 plus pips, so even though I was wrong in my price and time I could still exit that trade with a profit. Once price exceeded my time and price level I knew I was wrong so I waited and got out.

If you look at my chart you will see a line at 16:00 on the 21:10:2010, that where I expected a turn. Now, I made the mistake of trading my idea that my first turn was the high then we would see a decline, we were in a down trend looked like we had 1,2,3 waves down, I was expecting wave 4 then 5, elliot wave rubbish you see.

I was wrong on my first turn the second turn was within 1 bar of the predicted time, I had 16:00 the market turned at 17:00, the decline was 149 points from the 78% retrace, so the time was good.

I would appreciate your help and support in this thread, more than happy for you to have a go at me if I get it wrong. I am putting myself on the line with these predictions, thats my choice, if I go on public display I expect to get a good kicking if I get it wrong. But, I did almost stop bothering posting due to your negative comments. I thought whats the point, why bother posting at all. But, due to the fact that some people took the time to write to me and actually appreciated what I was doing I thought well that makes it worth it.

I won't always be right, but I try and thats really the best I can do. I wish I could tell you the exact pip and minute the market would turn. To allow you to make $1,000 of dollars in time for Christmas would be a reward in itself. I know you might be negative because you have been fleeced by the market and maybe you took that trade and got stopped out, and you want to point the finger at someone, your right in a way if I post I have to be prepared to accept flak when it fails.

Let me tell you something though, my mentor a well known pattern trader send me charts every day with price levels on. he has been at it for 40 years, he knows more about trading then I care to imagine. I don't think he's right more than 50% of the time, maybe not even that.

When he is wrong I accept it and try to figure out why, what clues were there. I don't trade his chart any more I prefer my own analysis, but I still look at what he is thinking every day.

No one knows what these markets will do, but as I have said before we all have a better chance working as a team and combining our resources.


kind regards


Mike Haran
  • #24,616
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:51pm Oct 23, 2010 7:51pm
As the retail 4x market gets even more popular your going to see different systems come and go. A few system will be similar and will have similar targets. The more people looking at those targets the more like a self fulfilling prophecy the systems become. Thats great but the market will never be in the same place twice there is always something different happening when the price reaches a spot that it has been before. So keep a ear on the news, make small steps with good money management and be prepared for the market to go threw cycles. When u have it dialed in enjoy -- when it goes a different way be attentive and try to adjust. When some one takes the time to share their information try to pick out the Perls and take a moment and thank them.
  • #24,617
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:00pm Oct 23, 2010 8:00pm
Look at the wave we are in and the similar wave when the GBP hit $2 to the £. It then rallied over 1000 points before it dived 6500 points. Don't think parity is the end of the road. The AUD is so bought up at the moment it will take a while to shake the tree and a lot of people will get caught thinking it cannot go higher.

Here is a graph of the GBPUSD look at the similar 5 wave corrective move that happened after it hit $2, looks familiar?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd at 2 dollars.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #24,618
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:56pm Oct 23, 2010 8:56pm
Mike,

I mostly watch from the sidlines but appreciate your input.
  • #24,619
  • Oct 23, 2010 9:00pm Oct 23, 2010 9:00pm
Hi folks,

Where tomorrow Aus dollar forcasts as RBA Governor has to give speech?

What are the prospectus on AUD in coming week?
  • #24,620
  • Edited 5:56am Oct 24, 2010 4:02am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting Mike Haran
Always the trend is and will be your edge as a trader, trying to predict tops or bottoms is a very difficult and costly business especially if you are new to this business, I do not recommend it.

However, trends do reverse so as a trader a heads up to a trend reversal area is a point where you should sit up and take notice.

Once you think you are in an area for a top or bottom formation then watch how price moves, put a bollinger band on the daily chart and wait for price to hit the bottom if you are coming from a top, then wait for it to...
I am going to rephrase some of the question since I don't see answers to them. A lot of people only follow blindly calls. and time trading really get's everyone excited.

So again:

What means a top for you ? How many pips will the fall be ? 100 - 200 3000 ? What's you're history of predicting tops and bottoms ?

Second. if you think there is a top. you could take profits. and wait for the trend to resume or the trend to change.

Third even if you call a top and somehow you get 500 pips (your example is with 20 miles) what about the miles/pips you already lost with bad predictions. it's not 20 miles anymore it's more like 10 or 5. just like the average trend follower.

Just be careful with going into prediction. I've seen people predicting the crash made a lot of money in 2008-2009 being short then lost more in the rebound that came because they think everything can be predicted and it's all there. it's not.

There is a nice quote that has been working for a few years now

"When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir?" Keynes

So when the trend is changed I will switch trade.

Another good quote.
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." G.S.

Anyway I wish you success in your Journey. About the wolf and sheep quote it's from training day a good movie but still a movie. this is real life. no happy ending for most of the traders here. So to get to a wolf you need 3 things. money lots of them, knowledge, experience.

Most of the beginners don't have any of those 3. Yet they still think they are wolfs

Anyway I guess everyone needs to find the answer on their own.

DMA
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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