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  • #121
  • Feb 2, 2006 8:32pm Feb 2, 2006 8:32pm
Quoting jotty
Do we now lower down to the 1 hour chart and get the range for the asia trading range? Then we calculate the 50% retracement from the high-low of the asia trading range and if the market breaks the 50% level, we initial short position.
Is that how I should do it?
Jotty---Friend

I believe from what Vegas has said that you have it part right.

Vegas has promised a new doc, this Sunday, that will help in this kind of entry. He has also inferred that it wont be quite as simple as "when you see the star, step on the gas" we just don't know yet.

The Good news is....if we miss this entry, Look at the charts....there will be lot's more.

But if you do press the button.
I hope it works out for you.

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #122
  • Feb 2, 2006 8:41pm Feb 2, 2006 8:41pm
Quoting Bemac
The last thing I want to do is dull your enthusiasm, but if you don't have a huge bill due this weekend that you can't cover unless you make a killing in FX, relax, take your time, compose yourself. Breeeeaaathhhh.

There is information coming to you {all of us} this weekend that has the potential of putting all recommendations that we could possibly contrive [the plebs that is] to shame.
There are times when you can step down from your workplace and say to yourself... "Time for a break." Enjoy it and perhaps even play a video game or two. The mind is >50% of your trading.
There will be enough times in the future to be busy. Just try to avoid getting busy on a project that involves building a bridge from Ayres Rock [Aus] to Mount Fuji.[Jpn] just because you have nothing to do at the moment.
haha, Bemac , yea I think thats what I'll do. Been staring at these charts all day. Thanks for the good advice.
  • #123
  • Feb 2, 2006 8:42pm Feb 2, 2006 8:42pm
Quoting HeavyJ

But if you do press the button.
I hope it works out for you.

HJ
Hehe, Thanks, but I guess I'll just chill for now till Vegas post his new document. I was so tempted to press earlier on, but I told myself I must maintain my discipline. It isnt easy, hehe.
  • #124
  • Feb 2, 2006 8:55pm Feb 2, 2006 8:55pm
Quoting jotty
It isnt easy, hehe.
Your tellin me

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #125
  • Feb 3, 2006 8:29am Feb 3, 2006 8:29am
Couple of pages ago in this thread I posted an image of the Daily USD/JPY.
{this one}
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...3&postcount=48

The Red Line is 2* the Distance from MA24 to the Green Dotted Line of Interest.

Notice that it only gets to the Red once a month or so and that it doesen't spend much time there {realatively speaking}

Well... After the reports... It's touching it now...
This could be the Nibble Entry we have been looking for.
Watch for signs of reversal soon.
Attached Image
  • #126
  • Feb 3, 2006 8:55am Feb 3, 2006 8:55am
Quoting Bemac
The last thing I want to do is dull your enthusiasm, but if you don't have a huge bill due this weekend that you can't cover unless you make a killing in FX, relax, take your time, compose yourself. Breeeeaaathhhh.

There is information coming to you {all of us} this weekend that has the potential of putting all recommendations that we could possibly contrive [the plebs that is] to shame.
There are times when you can step down from your workplace and say to yourself... "Time for a break." Enjoy it and perhaps even play a video game or two. The mind is >50% of your trading.
There will be enough times in the future to be busy. Just try to avoid getting busy on a project that involves building a bridge from Ayres Rock [Aus] to Mount Fuji.[Jpn] just because you have nothing to do at the moment.
Well said buddy..Fruit will be more tasteful if we allow it to ripe..This pair is so bullish now that we really have to wait for the right reversal signal..

Jotty, btw, if you get time go thru James 16 Price action thread which will be very helpful to identify reversals....
  • #127
  • Edited 9:04am Feb 3, 2006 8:57am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting firehorse
HiI haven't had time to test the 1hr tunnel. Can you tell more about how you tested it, like data source, periodicity, how far back in data did you go, which platform you are using. And if possible, do you have a spreadsheet of the trades it generated? It would be very interesting for me to see.

Thanks
Alan
Hello firehorse

I tested, the one-hour system using some coding, I wrote in TradeStation Omega Pro 2000i . The equity curve was done with 2.7 years of data on the Swiss franc. I have not done much modifications to the one hour system, which Vagus describes. The only difference. I have the Time filters turned off. So it trades all the time. And the two moving average that formed the tunnel are from the high and the low. As opposed to the close. If the fast moving average is on top.It takes the average of the high if it is on the bottom. It takes the average of the low.

One more thing I should mention for money management purposes, I have my TradeStations set up for micro lots. So if you see this system taking 500 lots it's actually only five regular lots.

Or you can think of it as $500,000

For a spreadsheet, I will attach the TradeStations performance report, which you can examine in Excel.

OK, seems that I can't upload an Excel file. So I zipped it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip CHF_USD.zip   137 KB | 390 downloads
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #128
  • Feb 3, 2006 9:12am Feb 3, 2006 9:12am
Quoting Bemac
Ok Shan. You can be dumm, Iyill be dummmerrerr.
Man I have a tonne {that's metric btw} o' Q's.
I know I'm gonna have to read VWB Stage II at least 3 times to make sure the answer to my dummm question isn't there already. That's not a slight on Vegas' writing style, merely a reflection of my absorbtion skills.

2 More Sleeps !!! WooHoo.
{***Note to self*** Cookies and milk on the counter?}
Hey Bemac, some times I'm so dumb that I don't know I'm asking an excellent question even a dummmmmerrerr knows!!!! So let's compete ;-)
  • #129
  • Feb 3, 2006 10:06am Feb 3, 2006 10:06am
100 pips on the non farm on the USDJPY wish I could figure out a way to harness that!!!!!!!!

I didn't use my interpretation of the 50% retace due to the spike from the non farm but,I did trade the fade because its hard to believe the USD can sustain the gain based on a 75 K lower than expected report.
See what happens
  • #130
  • Feb 3, 2006 10:38am Feb 3, 2006 10:38am
70 pips and still going one gotta love the non farm but,whay did it go up??

I just don't get that!!
  • #131
  • Feb 3, 2006 10:59am Feb 3, 2006 10:59am
Quoting zenophyte
70 pips and still going one gotta love the non farm but,whay did it go up??

I just don't get that!!
From:
http://www.bls.gov/lau/lauhvse.htm

The unemployed total from the household survey includes all persons who did not have a job during the reference week, were currently available for a job, and were looking for work or were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off, whether or not they were eligible for unemployment insurance. Figures on unemployment insurance claims, prepared by the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor, exclude, in addition to otherwise eligible persons who do not file claims for benefits, persons who have exhausted their benefit rights, persons who have been disqualified from receiving benefits, new workers who have not earned rights to unemployment insurance, and persons losing jobs not covered by unemployment insurance systems (some workers in agriculture, domestic services, and religious organizations, and self employed and unpaid family workers).

I don't get it either. That suggests that Lets say Ford Motors lays off 25,000 employees. They will show up in the NFP numbers.
But, when their benifits run out {exhaust} they will appear to be back in the workforce and be deleted from NFP. Does that sound realistic to you? Me niether. So I don't try to analyze NFP, just trade it if given the opportunity
$0.02 CAD
  • #132
  • Feb 3, 2006 11:54am Feb 3, 2006 11:54am
This (and James16 chart thread) are what I look for to signal a potential reversal.

Reversal patterns:
http://www.stockcharts.com/education...reversal1.html

http://www.stockcharts.com/education...reversal1.html

Joe Ross also has some very good info on how to get a low risk entry in these books: (my favorite)

http://www.trading-naked.com/library/Law_of_Charts.pdf
http://www.trading-naked.com/Article...rick_Entry.pdf


The failure to make a higher high and making a lower low is a great signal to think of going short when price hits the outer fib lines long and vis versa for short. You can get an entry with a tight stop and exit at BE or before it hits your stop if it fails to continure making lower lows and lower highs. The Law of Charts has a lot of great examples and Traders Trick Entry shows a low risk early entry strategy.

Tim Morgue says it best "I like to have good trade location. Having good trade location can cover many sins".
Forex Trading: The hardest way to make easy money.
  • #133
  • Feb 3, 2006 12:31pm Feb 3, 2006 12:31pm
Quoting Norbecker
This (and James16 chart thread) are what I look for to signal a potential reversal.
Thanks for the links. Great info on sticks.
4th one had a problem connecting 404 error.

Since some of us are watching USD/JPY, I thought this was worth mentioning...

18:18 USD/JPY: Still Vulnerable to Soft Tone Of U.S. Yields] San Francisco, February 3. USD/JPY managed to bounce off 118.80 after the morning sell-off and now trades at 119.07. However, USD/JPY may still be vulnerable to the soft tone of U.S. bond yields. Yields bounced off the morning lows but are drifting lower again, and hold at 4.54%. Some traders remain bearish USD/JPY and look to sell into current rallies. They believe that the economic recovery in Japan has been underestimated and that USD/JPY remains at risk of a correction lower. The strong recent flow into fresh carry trades is also seen making USD/JPY and JPY crosses vulnerable. Stops remain under 118.80 to 118.60 with offers ahead of 119.50.
  • #134
  • Feb 3, 2006 12:53pm Feb 3, 2006 12:53pm
Everyone,

Now that things have settled down, just a little update on my Cable position.

Initial position short 20 GBP/USD contracts from average price of 1.7891. 10 contract day-trade loss of 10 pips last Friday. 7 contracts covered last Friday near the close at 1.7679. On Monday, additional 3 contracts covered at 1.7657 when Cable entered the VWB tunnel. During the rest of the week, I covered an additional 3 contracts when the market rallied up through 1.7761.

So that leaves me still short 7 contracts. Stop on this is near breakeven at 1.7883. Hopefully, market can continue to move lower next week and touch 2nd or 3rd fib line on the other side of the tunnel. If not, I really don't care. I have a free trade on and I hope you see that this is the "Holy Grail" of trading.

I know many of you are looking at usd/jpy and eur/jpy. Be patient and don't jump the gun.

VWB Part II will be out on Sunday.
vegas
  • #135
  • Feb 3, 2006 12:57pm Feb 3, 2006 12:57pm
Thanks Vegas.

See you Sunday.
  • #136
  • Feb 3, 2006 2:02pm Feb 3, 2006 2:02pm
Quoting vegas
Everyone,

Now that things have settled down, just a little update on my Cable position.

Initial position short 20 GBP/USD contracts from average price of 1.7891. 10 contract day-trade loss of 10 pips last Friday. 7 contracts covered last Friday near the close at 1.7679 (average +212). On Monday, additional 3 contracts covered at 1.7657 (average +234) when Cable entered the VWB tunnel. During the rest of the week, I covered an additional 3 contracts when the market rallied up through 1.7761 (average +130).

So that leaves me still short 7 contracts. Stop on this is near breakeven at 1.7883. Hopefully, market can continue to move lower next week and touch 2nd or 3rd fib line on the other side of the tunnel. If not, I really don't care. I have a free trade on and I hope you see that this is the "Holy Grail" of trading.

I know many of you are looking at usd/jpy and eur/jpy. Be patient and don't jump the gun.

VWB Part II will be out on Sunday.
Look at the risk/reward!!!!!! That is what makes this a killer system. I know that vegas experience and chart time is what results in this type of return. From your "average" entry price I take that to mean you average down? Entering more units, at a better price, as price moves against you. With the micro-minis it does not take a huge account to trade like this. Just lots of experience and big steele balls.
Forex Trading: The hardest way to make easy money.
  • #137
  • Feb 3, 2006 2:13pm Feb 3, 2006 2:13pm
Quoting Norbecker
Just lots of experience and big steele balls.
I think you mean Marballs
  • #138
  • Feb 3, 2006 3:45pm Feb 3, 2006 3:45pm
Hi Claude
Quoting Claude
I tested, the one-hour system using some coding, I wrote in TradeStation Omega Pro 2000i . The equity curve was done with 2.7 years of data on the Swiss franc. I have not done much modifications to the one hour system, which Vagus describes. The only difference. I have the Time filters turned off. So it trades all the time. And the two moving average that formed the tunnel are from the high and the low. As opposed to the close. If the fast moving average is on top.It takes the average of the high if it is on the bottom. It takes the average of the low.

One more thing I should mention for money management purposes, I have my TradeStations set up for micro lots. So if you see this system taking 500 lots it's actually only five regular lots.

Or you can think of it as $500,000

For a spreadsheet, I will attach the TradeStations performance report, which you can examine in Excel.

OK, seems that I can't upload an Excel file. So I zipped it.
Thanks for the spreadsheet. Looks like I will have to investigate the one hour system in more depth.

I thought the 4hr was supposed to be better than the 1hr but I couldn't get any 'mechanical' testing to duplicate the estimated results in the original 4hr document.

If you ever get the urge to code up the 4hr, it would be great to compare results.

I'll have to set up some testing on the 1hr to see if I can duplicate your results. Unfortunately, it won't be for a while. Just very busy!

Have tried it on other currencies?

The time filter would be a good thing to put back on as it does not reflect the results you will get trading it unless you have a trading partner overseas. How much would a time filter affect the results?

Did you account for spread? About 1000 trades, say 4 pip spread = 4000 pips gone! If not accounted for, it can make a large difference in the result. Just one of the hazards of backtesting that I've found

Best regards
Alan
  • #139
  • Feb 3, 2006 4:23pm Feb 3, 2006 4:23pm
Quoting firehorse
Hi Claude
Did you account for spread? About 1000 trades, say 4 pip spread = 4000 pips gone! If not accounted for, it can make a large difference in the result. Just one of the hazards of backtesting that I've found
Best regards
Alan
I'm sure he wil answer but in the meantim here's my $0.02.

Having utilized some {If not most} of Claudes code in the past, I wouuld be surprised if he didn't include spread. If He didn't, I'm guessing it's only because 2000i has no method of doing so.
It does have an allownce for Margin. Not sure if you could incorporate that to include Spread?
Claude?
  • #140
  • Edited 7:05pm Feb 3, 2006 6:53pm | Edited 7:05pm
First let me make sure that I'm clear on the time filter. Here's a quote fromthe original vagus one-hour trading system
Quote
2.)

We do not initiate new currency trading positions based on tunnel trading during the Asian time-frame. Anything between 5pm NY and Midnight NY is ignored for entry of new positions. Positions that are on are monitored as normal, i.e., everything else is the same.

This is the time filter that I'm speaking of the results I posted are from the system taking every trade and not filtering out the ones between those times.

As for the spread, absolutely. You'll notice it in the TradeStations performance report, a tab called analysis. You'll notice that there is $71,550 in commission. This is based on $.30 per micro lot. Therefore paying $30 per regular lot.
You are correct. I should've increased to $.40, but I had just finished running tests on the euro.
Attached Image
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
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