AUD/USD

Is .97 entry on the long a good entry ?

Better wait for a retest of the lows if you want to go long.

What do you think of this scenario? (4H):


Expanded flat (3-3-5) -> Definition: wave B extends beyond the start of wave A, and wave C extends beyond the end of wave A.

http://thepatternsite.com/EWExpanded.html

http://thepatternsite.com/images/FlatExpand.JPG
http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/images/fig13334.gif

http://thepatternsite.com/images/ExpandedFlatBu.JPG

If yiu look on the daily chart it shows that on a previous day there has been a retracement from the lows of the day before that. Therefore the fib 50% retracement has occurred and turned at .9742 giving us the next price target of .9813 and .9832 when it touches these prices it may show new direction to further downside or continue on the upside.
I would buy now for a 50pip profit. Then look to see where it continues to place another Buy to go long.

Bearish engulfing pattern looks to be setting up on the weekly chart. If AUD/USD closes under 9850 tommorow you can expect this pair to sell off.

Who's excited?

Rising import prices, supports the Aussie as it continues along rising trend. Good buy opportunities exist now.

So true. You learn alot from your mistakes, but we don't seem to want to advertise mistakes.

I went chasing a trade the other day. I thought I had a decent entry, but in hindsight the position of my stop would have been a more appropriate entry.

Looking back at it the entry was in no mans land and the entry point did not reflect my views. It could have worked but I did not stack the odds in my favour.

By making that mistake I have learn't my lesson and I should be better off in the future as a result.

I'm waiting for price to reach the 0.9850 area. However with it being a Friday sitting on the sidelines might be safer, but I will keep an eye on it.

got this in my email today - very good read:

there were charts in the original but dont seem to show up.....but some very interesting point about what is driving the AUD price.........


Within minutes of yesterday's Money Morning hitting the newsstands we received a reply from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

You'll recall that yesterday we told you about an email we'd sent to the RBA on Tuesday asking why the 'Three Cobbers' - Mr. Corbett, Mr Kraehe, and Mr. McKibbin had bunked off the last RBA board meeting.

Here's what Mitchel, public relations officer at the RBA had to say:



Source: Your editor's email


Quick as a flash we replied:



Source: Your editor's email

I know, it's all very childish and maybe we shouldn't waste our time with it. But, the beauty of email is that it only takes a few seconds to fire off a letter.

Anyway, we'll see what response-if any-we get.

Oh, and one more thing before we move on. Earlier this week I gave you some stats about the influence foreign exchange trading has on the Australian dollar. I quoted to you that according to the Bank for International Settlements, the Aussie dollar accounted for 7.6% of all foreign exchange transactions.

Well, it just so happens we were fishing around the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) website yesterday and came across a presentation titled: "Australian Government Securities."

The presentation was given by Neil Hyden, chief executive officer of the AOFM. Just in case you're not aware, the AOFM is the government department that handles all of the government's debt sales and purchases.

For instance, this week the AOFM has sold $500 million of Treasuries maturing in 2017 at an interest expense to the taxpayer (yield to the investor) of 5.0431%, and $1 billion of short-term Treasury Notes that mature in February 2011 at an interest expense to the taxpayer of 4.6867%.

You can add that to the $167,401 million-or $167.4 billion-of debt already outstanding. That's approximately 16.7% of total GDP. But more importantly-seeing as the government subtracts from the economy and doesn't add to it-it represents over 24% of private sector GDP. As you'll read shortly, that's not enough for some analysts…

Anyway, that's by the by. It's the Aussie dollar I was going to show you. One of the slides from the AOFM presentation shows the increase in foreign exchange trades on the Aussie dollar since 2001. You can see it represented on the chart below:





Source: AOFM

As you can see, trading on the Aussie dollar has increased from 4.3% of FX trades in 2001 to 7.6% of FX trades in 2010.

Importantly, you can see that during the period from 2004 to 2007, when stock markets experienced the extraordinary boom-including the resources boom, trades involving the Aussie increased by just 0.6 percentage points.

This increase in activity was largely driven by Australian exposure to resources. And that's the same reason why the Aussie has seen a full percentage point increase in FX activity over the last three years-nearly double the previous three-year growth rate.

As punters flood the market in a torrent of activity to either bet on bet against the Aussie dollar. Right now, the weight of money is punting in favour of it. But that could change… and most likely it will.

But until that happens we've been holding our breath to see what cuts the ConLib (Conservative and Liberal Democrat) coalition government was going to make to public sector spending in the UK.

As you can imagine there's been plenty of huffing and puffing about the subject.

Trade unions and public sector workers have been up in arms about cuts to the budget and cuts to public services. The Labour opposition has warned it could send the economy back into recession.

They needn't have worried about the cuts… because there aren't any. Not really. As for the recession part, well, they'll be right about that. But not because of the cuts, rather it's because of the lack of cuts.

We've taken a look at the so-called savage cuts made by Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, and we've come to the conclusion that it's nothing more than a not-so-elaborate smokescreen.

The first giveaway was this from the BBC:

"Mr Osborne ended his hour-long Commons statement by claiming the 19% average cuts to departmental budgets were less severe than expected… The chancellor claimed it meant his savings were less than the 20% cuts Labour had planned ahead of the general election."

There you have it, 'I'm Mr Tough Guy, I'm going to cut the budget… but I'm also Mr Cuddly Guy because the cuts won't be as bad as what the other mob had planned.'

But then you need to look at the actual spending review to see that the supposed £81 billion (AUD$130 billion) of savings over the next few years actually results in an increase in government spending of £43 billion (AUD$69 billion):





Source: HM Treasury

It's using the good old fashioned "savings" trick.

The exact same trick that we saw in a letter from the Commonwealth Bank this week offering a pre-approved Platinum credit card with a $15,000 credit limit.

The benefit of this credit card was that it would "save" us $30 a year!

Wow! $30 a year… better in our pocket than the bank's… where do we sign! Only it wasn't really a $30 saving because the annual fee for the credit card was $280. So we'd have to spend $280 to get a $30 "saving."

Er, no thanks. We'll stick with what we've got thanks.

It's like seeing a pair of shoes for half price in a sale, "Ooh, I'll save $50 if I buy those shoes." Actually, you won't save anything because you're spending $50 more than you otherwise would have spent.

But back to the so-called budget cuts. It's nothing of the sort. Instead it's typical political chicanery. And boy, are the Keynesians making hay out of it.

You see, because the UK government is fraudulently labelling its spending review as cuts, as an austerity package, and as a roll-back of government spending, the Keynesians and other interventionists are out there saying that this is a result of pressure put on the government by free marketeers.

That these cuts are exactly what free market supporters want. And exactly what the economy doesn't need. Take this quote from Nobel Prize economics winner Joseph Stiglitz:

"The stimulus was always thought of as a stopgap measure until the private sector could recover. In some countries, such as the US, politics rather than economics drove the size and design, with the result that they were too small and less effective than they might have been. Still, they worked. Now, financial markets-the same shortsighted markets that created the crisis-are focusing on soaring deficits and debts."

Of course, governments and central banks had nothing to do with the crisis did they? I mean, as US economist Peter Schiff says-sure the markets got drunk, but it was the government and the central banks that were pouring the drinks.

Anyway, Stiglitz concludes:

"Britain is embarking on a highly risky experiment. More likely than not, it will add one more data point to the well-established result that austerity in the midst of a downturn lowers GDP and increases unemployment, and excessive austerity can have long-lasting effects."

In other words, what Stiglitz is saying is that Britain's policy of supposedly cutting public expenditure-even though it's actually increasing it-will be proof that free markets don't work when the UK economy collapses again.

When in reality the opposite is the case. It's because government spending and meddling has continued that will result in the UK heading back to recession. The high taxes, the high debt… and public expenditure that will still be well over 40% of the UK's GDP.

But the propagandists are hard at work. Claiming the UK is making savage cuts to public spending-all at the behest of evil free marketers.

It's tripe of course.

And besides, further proof the UK government isn't really serious about looking after the taxpayer is in the following story from Bloomberg News. If it was serious about public debt and government spending it wouldn't be using the cheats' and fraudsters' way of pretending to pay down the national debt-quantitative easing (QE).

As reported by Bloomberg News: "Osborne Says King May Act If U.K. Deficit Cut Leads to Slump".

It's a proverbial double whammy for the UK economy. Its economy will continue to remain weak as government spending continues unabated.

The economy will head into a double-dip recession, the Keynesians and other interventionists will shout, "We told you so… more stimulus… more spending… more borrowing… more money printing…"

And lo, that's what the government and the Bank of England will do. They'll warn that only government can cure the problems of this terrible, private sector induced mess. And Keynesians and other interventionists will be invited back to wreak more havoc.

But at least it'll mean Bank of England governor Mervyn King will have gotten one thing right. This is what he said in a speech earlier this week:

"The next decade will not be nice. History suggests that after a financial crisis the hangover lasts for a while."

But the next part of the quote he gets wrong: "So the next decade is likely to be a 'sober' decade-a decade of savings, orderly budgets, and equitable rebalancing… A sober decade may not be fun but it is necessary for our economic health."

He's wrong because "savings, orderly budgets, and equitable rebalancing" won't be possible.

Not for the majority of the population anyway-the bankers, bureaucrats, politicians and favoured businessmen will be OK.

But for the rest of the people, they'll be too consumed with paying taxes, or claiming unemployment benefit, or having any savings they have managed to lock away being eroded by criminally insane central bank created inflation.

For you as an Australian, count yourself lucky for now that even our crazy politicians haven't sunk to the same depths as the UK.

But don't get too complacent. As we feared, our own commentators and economists are beginning to trot out the "we can cope with more debt because it's not as high as theirs" argument.

After his terrible article on the Aussie dollar this week, Peter Martin has followed up by quoting an equally bad bit of investment advice from Stephen Halmarick at Colonial First State-you know them, that's the funds management firm that would have went bust if it hadn't frozen redemptions to retirees from its mortgage funds last year.

Anyway, here are some snippets of what Halmarick had to say, as quoted by Martin:

"While Australia's low net government debt position is seen as a strength, there exists a strong case for MORE government debt in Australia to help fund productivity enhancing infrastructure."

"Some estimates put the infrastructure shortfall in Australia at around $A600bn. The case could be made for the Commonwealth and States to increase their combined debt level by over $A200bn, which would increase net government debt from a projected peak near 16% of GDP to a still internationally low level of 30% of GDP"
[Ed note: That would equal around 52% of private sector GDP].

"Indeed, we argue in this paper that Australia has a unique opportunity to INCREASE its level of net government debt…"

You see, once politicians and bureaucrats start on the "at least we're not as bad as them" approach, you soon find yourself in a situation where the pollies are championing even just a one percent difference… as Osborne did with his argument that ConLib spending cuts are only 19% compared to the 20% the previous government had planned.

Even though, in reality there are no cuts anyway, just an increase in spending and the further devaluation of the British pound.

We'd like to think it won't happen here, but something about the universal make-up of all politicians and bureaucrats tells us that eventually it will.

The best term we can think to apply to all of these so-called experts is eco-terrorists.

But not the tree-hugging and animal-loving kind of eco-terrorism you'll find at your local hippie commune, no I'm talking about economic-terrorists.

These are the individuals and groups who want to maintain the current corrupt economic system. They dislike people having the freedom to make their own choices and make their own successes or errors.

They want someone to be in control. Preferably they want their group of bullies-aka, political party-in control to boss people about and steal their hard-earned income.

These are the people with the most influence, and that naturally enough they're keen to maintain the corrupt system, rather than supporting the only true method of achieving freedom and prosperity-and that's free market economics.

Ultimately the free market will win out, but it won't be before the crackpot eco-terrorists have done immeasurable damage.

Cheers.
Kris Sayce
For Money Morning Australia

As you guys can see, my prediction has been delivered.
For those that took that punt, congratulations as you should have earned a nice 50 pip profit.

I will keep posting my review of the analysis with price action and determined value on the AUD/USD.

The next turn of the Aussie will be coming soon after the Euro open, we shall see action taken from the Asian trade today and US last night. ASX added 0.55% to today's trade, which was ok and pretty normal for a general Aussie trading. I shall come back to post my thoughts for tonights trade and pip gains you can achieve tonight.

remember good memories n forget bad 1. lol


swing baby swinggggg~~~!!!

me no trade this pair coz been fooled out 7 hours ago..zzz

now tradin XU instead.~~~~ SWINGGGGGGGGG

why not just paste the link instead of paste the whole sentence...
anyway thanks for sharing

Morning Star at 30min?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/morningstar.asp

Trading sideways in a wedge. Ready to break out....

it was an email i received - how do i link you to that?

Swiiingggggg swwiinggggggg~~~~!!@!~~~~


be happyy dun worryyy n no gamble~~~

The big dogs are playing that triangle pattern to a T. Is it gonna break today or after G-20?

Most excellent advice.

Ahem...still waiting for u to give us some more pointers about market timing (silly me, I thought the biggest discovery was sliced bread ).Looks like ur last timing was off by about 2 days, was it intentional to teach us a lesson?

Firstly, I am not able to define a turn point and tell you that it will turn, put the farm on it. Those of you that think that anyone including me can tell what the market will do definately, well its chaotic so it can do pretty much anything.

However, I am still in my sell trade, because I set correct stops, I was able to get out of those positions because the market is in a range and to be honest in these conditions you could do anything and make money, not a lot but enough.

My turn on the 21st at 16:00 was a high not a low, accurate to 1 hours, so as with all chaotic system reversals do occur, I was wrong the sytem was not. It predicts turns, and often it gets it correct. Using a 4H chart here is a picture of the predicted turns.

So, you can see that 23.10.2010 at 16:00 cyprus time it predicts a turn thats Saturday, yeah markets don't turn on saturday I know. Turns are predictions, that means they are not fact. I trade these turns using trend lines, which if anyone is interested in I will show you.

Ladies and Gentlemen, in trading there is only one thing that will make you as a trader at that is a winning system and risk control. In this business nothing works all the time, hence you don't place all your cash on a single trade.

Because of the very positive messages I got I will continue to post, those negative comments are made by people that are losing, and I understand your frustrations, however I am trying to help you as well so please give me a bit of room to make mistakes because we all make those in trading. Making wrong calls is part of trading staying wrong is where the problems start.

A good weekend to you all

Mike Haran