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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,521
  • Oct 21, 2010 1:40am Oct 21, 2010 1:40am
Eur/Jpy
Usd/Chf
Aud/Jpy
Eur/Jpy
Aud/cad
Gbp/Usd
Usd/Jpy
Nzd?usd
Usd/Chf

some better than others
  • #8,522
  • Oct 21, 2010 1:59am Oct 21, 2010 1:59am
Quoting shiko
It is actually interesting how situations like this can be analyzed.
According to what Mortician showed us, it might actually look like a sell signal as price entered area of broken trend line. On the other hand those green candles and quick rise looks like a flag pole which is a signal to wait for the top of the pole break out.
SHIKO, you are right. it was a sell signal, i guess. price has dropped by a 100 pips. Trend collapse people or mr. greenius would have probably taken the trade.
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  • #8,523
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:06am Oct 21, 2010 2:06am
Quoting Mortician.
AUD/USD. interested?

Personally, i will need to wait for 1,2,3 formation on 15mins time frame at that spot to short. H4/15MINS.

BE trade at 1:1. CLOSE 1st position at swing low.
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1287587255

It is now up by +50 pips on the short side(check chart below). The 1,2,3 formation completed at 0.9855 on the 15mins...risk would have been -33pips. AT +49 pips, that is enough for a move to BE. I absolutely didnt take the trade, of course. It is too anti-trend for my taste. I like to see this formation in the direction of the trend. That is just me. *GREENIUS TOOK THE TRADE THOUGH*
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  • #8,524
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:12am Oct 21, 2010 2:12am
Quoting shiko
It is actually interesting how situations like this can be analyzed.
According to what Mortician showed us, it might actually look like a sell signal as price entered area of broken trend line. On the other hand those green candles and quick rise looks like a flag pole which is a signal to wait for the top of the pole break out.
well, as I said, I just go with the long-term trend. As long as my outest trendline doesn't get broken to the downside, we are still in an uptrend as far as I am concerned.
Of course it could be the start of a downtrend, but in my opinion it's more likely that the uptrend will resume sooner or later.

In my experience, and this is really just my experience, trendline breaks against the longterm trend are not that reliable. Very often price breaks the trendline only to resume the old trend later. That's why it's typically so hard for people to hold onto trades, cause trendlines after trendlines get broken and would cause us to close profitable trades in direction of the long-term trend, but then price just resumes to go with the long-term trend.

cheers
  • #8,525
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:14am Oct 21, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Custos
well, as I said, I just go with the long-term trend. As long as my outest trendline doesn't get broken to the downside, we are still in an uptrend as far as I am concerned.
Of course it could be the start of a downtrend, but in my opinion it's more likely that the uptrend will resume sooner or later.

In my experience, and this is really just my experience, trendline breaks are not that reliable. Very often price breaks the trendline only to resume the old trend.

cheers
You are absolutely right. I will like to see that formation in the direction of the trend. That is also why i didnt take the AUD/USD formation(it was too anti-trend for my taste.). Oh yes, just because the setup works for gbp/usd or aud/usd is ABSOLUTELY NOT CHANGING MY VIEW ABOUT TRADING WITH THE TREND. I am sticking with the trend. That is good enough for me.
  • #8,526
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:18am Oct 21, 2010 2:18am
Quoting Custos
well, as I said, I just go with the long-term trend. As long as my outest trendline doesn't get broken to the downside, we are still in an uptrend as far as I am concerned.
Of course it could be the start of a downtrend, but in my opinion it's more likely that the uptrend will resume sooner or later.

In my experience, and this is really just my experience, trendline breaks against the longterm trend are not that reliable. Very often price breaks the trendline only to resume the old trend later. That's why it's typically so hard for people to...
I am thinking of not discussing that strategy here, or, only talking about it when only in the direction of the trend, because it may give people the wrong idea.
  • #8,527
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:25am Oct 21, 2010 2:25am
completely supporting CUSTOS point. see the GBP/USD daily time frame:

the TRENDLINE held that price to the upside.....
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  • #8,528
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:25am Oct 21, 2010 2:25am
New poster here and wondering if this is a possible setup.
4 hr is trending down. A countrendline has been broken on the 1 hr and if price went in the direction suggested by my arrows a sell would be in order?
Appreciate any help.
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We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #8,529
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:32am Oct 21, 2010 2:32am
Quoting Mortician.
I am thinking of not discussing that strategy here, or, only talking about it when only in the direction of the trend, because it may give people the wrong idea.
well, I think the strategy you mentioned with the trendline break has validity, but I think newbies could get confused, if people start taking anti-trend trades.
Yeah, best is to only trade that strategy in direction of the trend. completely agree

cheers
  • #8,530
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:36am Oct 21, 2010 2:36am
Quoting Iamfx
New poster here and wondering if this is a possible setup.
4 hr is trending down. A countrendline has been broken on the 1 hr and if price went in the direction suggested by my arrows a sell would be in order?
Appreciate any help.
In my opinion that is not a valid setup. If you look at the h4 chart, you will find that usd/jpy is in a range. You want nice swings to the downside, not a ranging situation.
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  • #8,531
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:56am Oct 21, 2010 2:56am
Quoting Custos
In my opinion that is not a valid setup. If you look at the h4 chart, you will find that usd/jpy is in a range. You want nice swings to the downside, not a ranging situation.

Are there rules that invalidate the setup when ranges occur? As far as the 3 sma's are concerned it would be seen as valid.....?
  • #8,532
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:00am Oct 21, 2010 3:00am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Are there rules that invalidate the setup when ranges occur? As far as the 3 sma's are concerned it would be seen as valid.....?
well, I don't know if you did hector's course, but there are either swinging patterns or (I think he called them) breakout patterns.

as you can guess, nice swings to the down/upside is a swinging pattern

a flag, triangle or range are breakout patterns.

Well, and since we formed a range, we don't have a nice swinging pattern anymore, but a breakout pattern (range). So need to wait for the lows to be broken.

cheers
  • #8,533
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:01am Oct 21, 2010 3:01am
Quoting Custos
well, I think the strategy you mentioned with the trendline break has validity, but I think newbies could get confused, if people start taking anti-trend trades.
Yeah, best is to only trade that strategy in direction of the trend. completely agree

cheers
Indeed. You are absolutely right.
Since you are a more advance practitioner of the trading arts. Here is another guy, mr FXEURO on youtube who does something strikingly similar( i stole the video from greenius thread)
Inserted Video


He has more balls though: he sometimes go as low as 5mins trades. Too rich for my blood. He obviously doesnt have the hector spice thrown into the mix just the way i like it. But he still have some solid points. I can see him planning to take the NZD/JPY 15mins trade i attach below, afterall, it is in the direction of the downtrend. Something i wont do because I like H4 SETUP minimum for this kind of trade
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  • #8,534
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:14am Oct 21, 2010 3:14am
Quoting Mortician.
Indeed. You are absolutely right.
Since you are a more advance practitioner of the trading arts. Here is another guy, mr FXEURO on youtube who does something strikingly similar( i stole the video from greenius thread)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mY2pA...layer_embedded

He has more balls though: he sometimes go as low as 5mins trades. Too rich for my blood. He obviously doesnt have the hector spice thrown into the mix just the way i like it. But he still have some solid points. I can see him planning to take the NZD/JPY...
and interesting video, thanks for sharing. Seems like there are lots of guys out there trading similarly to what we do here.
  • #8,535
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:16am Oct 21, 2010 3:16am
Quoting shiko
EU is also showing flag pole... it is along the trend, so, we have higher probability of at least one more up swing.

Attachment
Already locked 50 pips profit, half position closed. stop BE.
next target just under 1.4100, if it gets there will close another 25% and see if there is more pips.
  • #8,536
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:16am Oct 21, 2010 3:16am
most probably another BE stop...
  • #8,537
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:31am Oct 21, 2010 3:31am
Quoting Custos
In my opinion that is not a valid setup. If you look at the h4 chart, you will find that usd/jpy is in a range. You want nice swings to the downside, not a ranging situation.
OK thanks for that. This is the chart I saw with the MA's streaming nicely and looked good to me.
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We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #8,538
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:38am Oct 21, 2010 5:38am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos,

pre news action, why not post news action - 15mins after news should be good to get a few pips out of market - possibly for rest of day...

There is a news trade specialist that I know of who posts regular videos on how to trade these setups... It is quite entertaining...

Just a thought...
P
sorry, somehow I missed a couple of posts.

well, I don't just want a couple of pips, I wanna participate in the long-term trend and compound my way into profits.
  • #8,539
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:39am Oct 21, 2010 5:39am
Quoting Siddhi69
Hey guys!...
yep, they look good.
And the higher time-frame will be your main focus. not the hourly time-frame. That's just noise in the long-term perspective.

cheers
  • #8,540
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:40am Oct 21, 2010 5:40am
Quoting Mortician.
Below is the chart of EUR/CHF monthly FROM 2007. I choose this example because of the many times the CHF bank has intervened in the market, fighting against the appreciation of the CHF. You can see the numerous spikes and angry rallies....what eventually happened? After the noise and whistle, and the billions spent by the SWISS to support their currency, the CHF;...
good, points, yeah the swissie showed an amazing trend the last couple of months. Hope it continues like that.
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