ActionForex style analysis

EUR/CAD, Weekly Outlook
EURCAD Weekly Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 10 2010 08:22 GMT

EUR/CAD soared to a new high of 1.4228. A temporary low might be in place after the sharp fall from friday. Note that the signal went below MACD histogram and with the invalidation of 1.4092 its likely to see some consolidation in next week. But downside move is expected to be contained by 1.3683 and give us another rise. Over the 1.4223, the target will be 100% projection of 1.2448 to 1.369 from
1.3068, to 1.4311.

On the medium and long term view the rise from 1.2448 to 1.4228 is treated as a three waves correction of the initial impulse 1.6007-1.295.
The prediction is still bullish with the 1.3683 support and the trend line valid.
Any decisive break on them with confirmation on 1.3068 will get bearish outlook in place and fall to 1.2448.

EURCAD Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 10 2010 12:05 GMT

This pair rejected violently from the attempt to break the high to a low as 1.4095. Break of the initial support of 1.4099 and the signal above the MACD histogram indicates that a greater correction will develop towards 50.0% from 1.3659 to 1.4366 at 1.4012 . Firm break of 1.3973 level will change dramatically to bearish, targeting the 1.3659 level.

EURCAD Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 10 2010 12:05 GMT

No change in EUR/CAD outlook, so far with the price staying over the SMA(55), even tough the price crossed the minor support of 1.4092. If the invalidation of the support is valid the first target will be on 23.6% from 1.2469 to 1.4228 at 1.3804. Breaking the next support from 1.3683 will have in target the 50.0% retrace of 1.2469-1.4228 movement. With the signal line staying above the histogram, the trend remains cautiously on the downside.

EURCAD Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 20th 2010 8:33 (GMT+2)

The pair continues its up move, as we expected from last week hitting 1.4309, near the 1.4311 level (100% projection from 1.2448 to 1.369 on 1.3068). The price retreated firmly after that and we can assist to consolidation. Even so, with the minor support intact from 1.3939, the bias is remaining for decisive break of the 1.4311 and targeting higher at 38.2% from 1.7503 to 1.244, at 1.4379.

EURCAD Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 21th 2010 8:59 (GMT+2)

The pair continued its march above 1.4311 target. The break above it suggest that the up move is not yet finished. Currently EUR/CAD is in a narrow consolidation. With the minor support (1.3945) intact, the price above SMA(55) and the MACD above its signal), the next target will be 38.2% from 1.7503 to 1.2440, at 1.4379. Break above that level will trigger towards the weekly trend line, about 1.4507.

Half partial profit taking as it reaches the 1.4311 level.

EURCAD Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 22nd 2010 15:01 (GMT+2)

No change it EUR/CAD outlook, even tough the macd cross below the signal and the presence of divergence, no significant fall on the sight. With the minor support from 1.3939 intact the pair remains on its upside bias. Above 1.43331 level will target 38.2% from 1.7503 to 1.2440, at 1.4379.

EURAUD Weekly Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 23rd 2010 09:52 (GMT+2)

EUR/AUD tends to up scenario, with the price positioning above the SMA(55) and above the minor support from 1.4093, even tough the signal is above the MACD histogram, which indicates that the price is missing its momentum for a consistent up move yet. Over the 1.4370 level, the target will be focus on the 61.8% projection from 1.3659 to 1.4370 on 1.4045, at 1.4484. As long as the minor support is intact the bullish scenarios remains in discussion.

On the medium and major term, the break of the trend line from weekly chart, indicates that is possible to assist to a bigger correction of the 2.1153-1.3659 move. Even so, is needed for confirmation. The break of the 1.4970-1.5012 area and climbing above the SMA(55) will confirm the eventually testing of 23.6% retrace from 2.1153 to 1.3659, at 1.5427, in the presence of the bullish divergence.

S&P500, Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 24th 2010 21:51 (GMT+2)

The US index S&P500, with the minor support of 1130.77 invalidated, is midly on the upside, with the price staying above the SMA(55) and will remain on the upside, as long as this support holds. Above the maximum level of 1219.27, the key-resistance, the target will be the 161.8 Fibonacci projection from 1010.22 to 1128.75 on 1038.55, at 1230.33.

Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Oct 31th 2010 11:36 (GMT+2)

No signs of bottoming on USD/CHF, yet. Even in the presence of the bullish divergence, the minor support of 1.0400 still intact. It's invalidation, will trigger further correction towards SMA(55) (currently on 1.1237) and then 23.6% of 1.8309 to 0.9461 at 1.1549 and implicitly to trend line zone, at 1.1665 level. Break of the 0.9461 will push the price even lower to 61.8 projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946.

The closed trades on USD/CHF, based on this analysis:

+159
+198
+15
+134
_____
Total
+506 pips

Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 1st 2010 15:56 (GMT+2)

The pair seems like topping already, with the 1.4122 level support broken. Further continuation of the correction is expected towards 1.3945-1.3898, with MACD below its signal, with price staying below SMA(55) and presence of the bearish divergence. Further break, of this area, will target lower, to 1.3683 support and 38.2% of 1.2448 to 1.4345, at 1.3620 and implicitly to the trend line support zone where we expect a greater degree of resistance.

Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 2nd 2010 04:05 (GMT+2)

The pair seems like topping already and its bias is inverted, on down direction. With the price staying below SMA(55), MACD below its signal and major support of 1.3973 broken, further fall in price is expected, towards 1.3659 minimum and below. Decisively break of the historic minimum of 1.3659 will have as a target the 61.8 projection from 1.4977 to 1.3659, on 1.437, at 1.3555.

I have entered long observing that, after the price broke the 1.4122 minor resistance, it made a support on it, immediately after that. I have ensured the trade to 9 pips, when the price almost hit the SMA(55) and I will leave the position for further grow, as you can see that the major resistance it is not invalidated yet but the up momentum it is growing significantly. I will wait for major resistance to be broken (1.4265) and the maximum of 1.4543 too for entering other long positions.

The transaction was closed during FED Funds Rate Decision volatility.

Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 5th 2010 07:49 (GMT+2)

EUR/CHF falls sharply breaking both minor support of 1.3672 and sMA(55), recording a low of 1.3568. A deeper correction might be in developing as long as the minor support of 1.3672 is valid. Any true break above it will change the bias and we'll start to look towards upper levels again, 1.3803 first and 1.3833 for confirmation of the breaking and continuation of the upper initial move. Below the low of 1.3568 will target the trend line (about 1.3530).

Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 5th 2010 11:29 (GMT+2)

The bias is again neutral, because of the rejection of the price from 1.4265 resistance which is extremely powerful. So, the price rejected near the sMA(55), about 1.4194 level. Decisive break above the 1.4265 resistance will target the maximum of 1.4645 first, and further break will target 38.2% of the move from 1.7503 to 1.2440, at 1.4349 (weekly chart). Invalidation of the 1.4122 level support will change the outlook once again.

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EURCAD Weekly outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu | Nov 6th 2010 07:07 GMT

Intraday bias is down again, the price broke the 1.4122 support, making a low at 1.4028 so far. We are expecting deeper falling in price and the main target will be for the beginning 1.3945-1.3898 area (1.3898 representing 23.8 Fibonacci retrace of 1.2448-1.4345 movement). Break there will target the 1.3683 support level.

On the medium term, this pair didn't seems to be made a temporary top. With the medium term support intact (1.3690), the correction in place has to be tiny. With the break of the 1.3690 level (daily) only then we can talk about a deeper pull back, towards 50.0 or 61.8 Fibonacci retrace of the 1.2448-1.4345 movement. The medium term bias is still up.

On the long term, we cannot talk about a continuity of the up movement. As we can see the trend line (weekly) it is not invalidated yet and we cannot think about long term targets yet, on a period greater than six months. The bias is neutral.
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S&P500, Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 7th 2010 09:26 (GMT+2)

S&P500 bias became up again, with MACD above its signal, the price remaining above the sMA(55) and then, breaking above the maximum of 1219.27. Further rise is expected towards 161.8 Fibonacci projection from 1010.22 to 1128.75 on 1038.55, at 1230.33. Decisive break above that level, will target the weekly support of 1250.66.

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EURCAD, Daily Outlook | Written by Dîrzu Andrei-Ovidiu (diavolul) | Nov 10th 2010 09:36 (GMT+2)

The pair has continued its strong down move, breaking the 1.3945-1.3898 are, recording a minimum at 1.3821. Further falling in price is expected towards 1.3683-1.3620 (1.3620 represents 38.2 Fibonacci retrace from 1.2448-1.4345 movement). A break-out below this area will target even further, to trend line area, which is currently situated on 1.3481 level.