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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,481
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:43am Oct 20, 2010 5:43am
Quoting Custos
sorry, but I don't understand what you talk about.

aud/usd daily has been in an uptrend since june 2010
eur/jpy weekly has been in a downtrend since october 2009

don't know where this should be in early stages, we are in perfectly healthy trends in my opinion.

But maybe you could elaborate more or show with charts why you think we are in early stages only.

cheers
sorry, was referring to the 1 ht trend. I may have interpreted what i read originally incorrectly
  • #8,482
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:47am Oct 20, 2010 5:47am
Quoting NaughtyPip
sorry, was referring to the 1 ht trend. I may have interpreted what i read originally incorrectly
oh okay, no worries. Well, h1 trends are kind of unreliable, they are only reliable if they line up with the long-term trend in my opinion.

cheers
  • #8,483
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:54am Oct 20, 2010 6:54am
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Red
  • #8,484
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:56am Oct 20, 2010 7:56am
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need more PA for direction
  • #8,485
  • Oct 20, 2010 8:36am Oct 20, 2010 8:36am
Quoting redsword11
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Red


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missed zone and turned - might dip into zone


makes me mad
  • #8,486
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:38am Oct 20, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Custos
Coming back to news. Hope you guys don't get fed up yet!

This is just pure theory, not tested at all, but opinions are welcomed.
Now we already agreed that we would get stopped out on most setups when trading the news.

However, let's forget about hector setups or any setups for one moment. Why not just entering in direction of the trend BEFORE the news come out and then let the news work itself out. If we are at a loss after an hour of the news coming out, we cancel out the trade, if we are in profit, we move stop to b/e. Now, we would of course...
Hi Custos,

pre news action, why not post news action - 15mins after news should be good to get a few pips out of market - possibly for rest of day...

There is a news trade specialist that I know of who posts regular videos on how to trade these setups... It is quite entertaining...

Just a thought...
P
  • #8,487
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:43am Oct 20, 2010 9:43am
Hey guys! First off Great thread. I have just got into trading the Hector setups and it is awesome to have a thread talking about it. I have only been trading since Feb. so I am pretty much a newbie! I have been reading this thread from the beginning, but I thought I would jump in and introduce myself. And ask a couple of questions

One thing I am not to sure about is if I am setting my trendlines properly for the retracements. I have added a couple of charts and would love it if you guys could comment. Please let me know if I should make some changes and how.

Also with this style of trading, if the HTF (Daily) shows an uptrend and the LTF (1hr) shows a downtrend should I worry about the 1hr being valid?

Thanks in advance and I look forward to following this thread.
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  • #8,488
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:43am Oct 20, 2010 9:43am
Quoting Custos
Coming back to news. Hope you guys don't get fed up yet!

This is just pure theory, not tested at all, but opinions are welcomed.
Now we already agreed that we would get stopped out on most setups when trading the news.

However, let's forget about hector setups or any setups for one moment. Why not just entering in direction of the trend BEFORE the news come out and then let the news work itself out. If we are at a loss after an hour of the news coming out, we cancel out the trade, if we are in profit, we move stop to b/e. Now, we would of course...
Below is the chart of EUR/CHF monthly FROM 2007. I choose this example because of the many times the CHF bank has intervened in the market, fighting against the appreciation of the CHF. You can see the numerous spikes and angry rallies....what eventually happened? After the noise and whistle, and the billions spent by the SWISS to support their currency, the CHF; eventually the CHF keeps going in the direction it was meant to go: appreciate against the EUR. The trend tells the tale.
Lesson i personally take from this: DONT FIGHT THE TREND. Not even the billions of the SWISS BANKS can. Only strong fundamental changes causes trend changes, nothing else. There maybe some intermediate correction due to technicals or some big banks or government buying or selling this...but in the end, a currency will do what fundamental trend dictates. Nothing can stop gravity. Not even the Bank of a whole country.

So, yeah, you are right: if the long term trend says down, and there are no major fundamental event that turns the table(like the dubai debt crisis or greece debt or subprime mortgage shock or unexpected rate hike/cut(chinese this week), or successful strings of solid employment or gdp news(as in the AUD and NZD). Then, all the other news or events, especially, if artificial like currency intervention by the SWISS BANKS or BOJ banks are to be faded at the appropriate technical levels in the direction of the higher trend.
And once fundamental trends has been established for a currency, say, like the AUD, there is a higher probability that subsequent fundamental news from AUD will be support that fundamental trend. Fundamental info trend takes a while to establish and takes a while to correct. Countries cannot just be fundamentally solid today and be fundamentally bad tomorrow.(fundamental is not technicals -- it is not as temperamental.)

just my two cents

P.S I personally dont like news trading.
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  • #8,489
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:44am Oct 20, 2010 9:44am
well, so far letting profits run has brought nothing but BE on my second half positions . I was 140 pips at one point. now I am out at BE on both positions. May be I should just start taking my 100-300 pips on second half and that it is.
  • #8,490
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:46am Oct 20, 2010 9:46am
I also on this chart how do you handle when price breaks above your channel in the wrong direction? I know I would not trade against the trend, but if price moves back into the channel and then breaks to the direction of the trend is it still valid. Have a look at this chart for an example.
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  • #8,491
  • Oct 20, 2010 9:46am Oct 20, 2010 9:46am
Quoting shiko
well, so far letting profits run has brought nothing but BE on my second half positions . I was 140 pips at one point. now I am out at BE on both positions. May be I should just start taking my 100-300 pips on second half and that it is.
Whatever makes you happy.
  • #8,492
  • Oct 20, 2010 10:04am Oct 20, 2010 10:04am
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  • #8,493
  • Oct 20, 2010 10:40am Oct 20, 2010 10:40am
Quoting redsword11
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missed zone and turned - might dip into zone


makes me mad


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in long on test
  • #8,494
  • Oct 20, 2010 10:40am Oct 20, 2010 10:40am
Quoting Mortician.
Whatever makes you happy.
BTW, did you always manage to pick those 1000 pips on trend or it came with time? When stop moved to BE it doe snot happen often that price doe snot come back to hit it.
I simply wonder, taking all those BE trades, in the long run if to calculate how many 100-300 pips trades were finally stopped at BE.
  • #8,495
  • Oct 20, 2010 10:45am Oct 20, 2010 10:45am
I simply see that by taking simple 100 pips, I would make 2-3 times as much this week than I have. I guess 5-6% weekly is not that bad risking 1-2% per trade.
I do want to let my profits run to 1000 pips, but it seems experience in when such trades possible timing and place is essential. I actually hunted for just 20-40 pips before starting trading NightMoves 's method. The progress from psychological side is huge. iI do let profits run but I guess until i am good enough to detect those important moments I just should concentrate on swing trades.
  • #8,496
  • Edited 12:17pm Oct 20, 2010 11:15am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting shiko
BTW, did you always manage to pick those 1000 pips on trend or it came with time? When stop moved to BE it doe snot happen often that price doe snot come back to hit it.
I simply wonder, taking all those BE trades, in the long run if to calculate how many 100-300 pips trades were finally stopped at BE.
I dont look for +600, +1000 pips gain for every single trade. I look for that after the break of weekly or monthly trendlines,....and daily ones too. Below, i listed trading setups i am waiting for(you probably remember this) :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post4098498

When those red lines are broken, i will be much interested in +500pips or +1000 pips trade.
I mentioned something to that effect in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8372
Quoting Mortician.
Best of luck. In my humble opinion.....ADDENDUM: THIS Is also why i really enjoy daily or weekly breakouts: because then you have one of those, it is usually freefall. the coast is clear. There are less technical entanglements.....
CADJPY and NZDJPY fitted that criterion this sunday. I traded those two this sunday. NZDJPY BE for me, while cadjpy netted me +120pips and still in play. My CADCHF is still in play too.

Essentially, i dont look for +1000pips setups unless i am dealing with weekly, monthly, and sometimes, daily breaks. After reviewing all the 177 actual trading videos of hector on youtube: You will realize that in most cases,...well, i realized that in most cases, price reverses itself after reaching the swing low/high. The times it continues galloping ahead are when those trades occur AFTER the break of a major weekly trendline.

Take the JPYs breakout this sunday. The only two i took were NZD/JPY(BE + few pips) and CAD/JPY(still in play). These are the two with the daily or weekly setups with the potential of giving those +500 pips or +1000pips. Is there anything wrong with the other JPYs? No. If i was around, i would have taken them too....but, would i be gunning for +1000pips on them? No. I would have sold most , say, 70% to 90% into their daily or weekly S/R levels or trendlines; instead of keeping 1/2 like i did with the nzd/jpy and the cad/jpy. Why? because, the other JPYs setups did not have the weekly or daily configurations of CADJPY or NZDJPY.

Not all setups are created equal. You cant expect each to potentially run up +1000pips.

My two cents.
  • #8,497
  • Oct 20, 2010 11:22am Oct 20, 2010 11:22am
Quoting Mortician.
I dont look for +600,...
Yes, I remember. i actually started checking charts for all these break out set ups on higher time frames too.
I see my mistake. I was trying to get more pips from something that were actually swing trades. I have no experience with these kind of trades as I was practically fishing for 20-40 pips. I will remember this one now. Break out od daily to monthly more pips, the rest is just swings.
  • #8,498
  • Edited 12:26pm Oct 20, 2010 11:57am | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting shiko
Yes, I remember. i actually started checking charts for all these break out set ups on higher time frames too.
I see my mistake. I was trying to get more pips from something that were actually swing trades. I have no experience with these kind of trades as I was practically fishing for 20-40 pips. I will remember this one now. Break out od daily to monthly more pips, the rest is just swings.
That is it in a nutshell. I couldnt have put it better myself. You hit the nail right on the head. But i must warn you, these are my two cents. Gleaned from reviewing MY trades. The trades that ran away and the ones that didnt. I cant speak for anybody else. Also, from my experience out of reviewing all 177 videos of hector on youtube, and doing a thorough followup on his trades. Looking for runaway trades and the ones that simply backed up. Danuk, custos, and millipede man, will have their own variations. It all depends on your psychology/patience.

Here was another post from the past. where i talked about closing out 95% of my AUD/USD at 0.9850. because that was the weekly high. I doubt millipede man will give a crap about that level.

Quoting Mortician.
Good work, NM, i did something similar with my AUD/USD too...close out 95% of my position at 0.9850. I talked about it here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7892
......My remaining 5% is left at 0.9530. .....
Of course, i sold some of that remaining 5% into the parity of 1.000. I have 2% left in aud/usd. my latest entry was BE. Right now, i am waiting to see how aud/usd handles 1.0000. Same thing with my eur/usd position, most of it were emptied into 1.4000. do i think eur/usd have the potential to go all the way to meet that weekly trendline? yes. fundamentally as of now, at least. But 1.4000 is still a beast to crack, the same way 1.3000 was. I dont mind scaling back positions or waiting at key weekly or monthly levels. Take my cad/jpy from sunday. I told custos(good trade, by the way) that i will need to wait for the break of cadjpy redlines
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post4099896
On the other hand, Custos, while trading superbly with the trend, chose a earlier entry point:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post4093560
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8404
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8447

Bottomline: We all have different view points on trend trading. or shall we say, different money management tactics on trend trading. I am fairly certain that the millipede man(whom i respect) doesnt care one tut about all of this: he trades and just sit tight. Let the market does whatever the heck it wants. i am sure custos approach is different from mine too...danuk will sit tight until a solid 1, 2,3 formation appears on the daily(even though he doesnt call it 1,2,3 formation). Bottomline is that: we all trade with the trend and try to ride it as long as possible the minute we are certain in our BELIEF that a solid trend is in place. The rest is execution of this belief.

Respectfully
  • #8,499
  • Oct 20, 2010 1:31pm Oct 20, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Siddhi69
I also on this chart how do you handle when price breaks above your channel in the wrong direction? I know I would not trade against the trend, but if price moves back into the channel and then breaks to the direction of the trend is it still valid. Have a look at this chart for an example.
siddhi,

try reuploading your pictures in jpeg format and click manage attachments, upload from computer, so your pic actually displays in the thread. You will get more of a response this way.
  • #8,500
  • Oct 20, 2010 1:43pm Oct 20, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Custos
thanks for the hint, and thanks again for the two threads you gave me, they are pretty informative.

cheers
No problemo. That method is my backup method when a bpc or a straightup hector method gets me out at BE or failed. Take my BE NZDJPY trade for example:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1287370119


That trade resulted in a BE, more or less. So, i waited for that retracement to go all the way to the trendline that it broke to the downside. I followed that retracement all the way to the trendline, it hit the trendline between 38 to 61 fib, throw in some RN(61.50) in that area into the mix; with the downtrend still in place, i consider the trade a go for short.

Here is what happened next:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1287599516

Essentially following the basic framework outlined here by greenius:
http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/964_11284889713.png

The only difference is that i just went to 1/8th time frame to get my 1,2,3 formation for entry. I merely added a little hector spice into it by overlaying it with 38 to 61 fib range and an RN throw into the mix. It gives me a certain comfort. All in the direction of the trend, of course. And i am good to go.

hector does something similar with his trend collapse system (anti-trend)

Inserted Video


I can imagine him doing the same thing for EUR/USD yesterday:

H4 time frame:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1287599532

H1 time frame:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1287599516
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