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AUD/USD

  • #24,521
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:49pm Oct 19, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting Mike Haran
As all of you will be aware we are in October, the famous months for crashes. Today was a big down day, if like me you remember some of the previous falls, they often start out as fast falls, it seems that this is exactly what we got today 19th October 2010.

So if you are a currency trader as a lot of you are which pairs are going to storm down if the markets do go into free fall?

Well the AUDJPY is a great candidate and its broken out of that flat correction it was in, to the downside. If we are on the cusp of a big one then 55.62 or even 35.61...
I think you have to be very careful on this cross.
If dlr yen weakens and dlr is strengthening BOJ will be concerned.
I dont think they minded when the dollar was looking weak.
If you are purely looking at the AUD depreciating then fine.. but I dont see risk reward on it for me.. each to their own.. Good luck
  • #24,522
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:59pm Oct 19, 2010 9:59pm
I'm short @0.9748 [email protected] [email protected]... good opportunity here
  • #24,523
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:03pm Oct 19, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting pqt
Did the price hit your SL before it turned around?

Thanks for reply..its not hit SL. In case it did, it will show up in the price collumn (on the right side of account history, but in this case its just empty). I just think over today that with MT4 platform, I must move down the SL (because of short) whenever price indicator close near the TP, but in this case I just left it by in care by the platform, but it didn't (contrary to the FXCM developed platform in which case you can left after all setting and wait for the score). With MT4 platform, trailing stop must be set other wise It just go down further passing the TP and not giving the score.
  • #24,524
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:20pm Oct 19, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting kundrit
Thanks for reply..its not hit SL. In case it did, it will show up in the price collumn (on the right side of account history, but in this case its just empty). I just think over today that with MT4 platform, I must move down the SL (because of short) whenever price indicator close near the TP, but in this case I just left it by in care by the platform, but it didn't (contrary to the FXCM developed platform in which case you can left after all setting and wait for the score). With MT4 platform, trailing stop must be set other wise It just go down...
I think you got mixed up with the way you placed your order. If the Type column showed Sell Limit, that means you have placed a Pending Order, not an Instant Execution (Market Order). So if the price didn't reach your Sell Limit, you never had an executed order, so there is no profit,etc...
  • #24,525
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:26pm Oct 19, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting kandarv
I'm short @0.9748 [email protected] [email protected]... good opportunity here
I'm experiencing a WTF moment, my SL just got hit. Since Asia market opened is going up non stop. Weird PA, IMHO.
  • #24,526
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:47pm Oct 19, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting kandarv
I'm experiencing a WTF moment, my SL just got hit. Since Asia market opened is going up non stop. Weird PA, IMHO.
Look at the tweezers on hourlies.Price is getting bullish again.
  • #24,527
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:05am Oct 20, 2010 12:05am
Quoting pqt
Look at the tweezers on hourlies.Price is getting bullish again.
I just thought it wouldn't hold this much, in fact looking at PA right now seems like it only bump a little to take my SL, lol, it was a small SL though.
  • #24,528
  • Oct 20, 2010 1:18am Oct 20, 2010 1:18am
Swing baby swingg!!~~~~ swing here swing there
Swinger Club
  • #24,529
  • Oct 20, 2010 2:41am Oct 20, 2010 2:41am
Strong bounce off the bottom of last bollinger band. Aiming 0.9850 level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.PNG Size: 29 KB
  • #24,530
  • Oct 20, 2010 2:54am Oct 20, 2010 2:54am
I am expecting the AUDUSD to fall in the next couple of hours, I have two price target 0.98000 and 0.98313, these levels become interesting when the time is up, if they are breached then I will look for other levels. See the left hand side of the white line, the most important part of this is timing the markets. I scaled in last night based on my timing method and woke up this morning to 104 pips and counting, I scale into a position as I know that my timing can be a bar out in time and that can be 20-30 pips.

As a trader it is pointless to try to get in at the exact pip of the turn, it is far better to identify a zone and using proper risk management scale into the position, if price moves against you by 20 pips to your next level then scale in again, untill you have your position placed. This is not the same as adding to a losing position. I will predefine my total risk and plan my entries accordingly.

Trading is easy, keep your risk at a level it won't reck your account and plan each trade. As I know that the probability of a turn is higher at a projected turn point and price level I am going back to bed for an hour or so as there is nothing more to do until time is up.

No point staring at this chart ;-)

All the best


Mike Haran
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud short levels.gif Size: 54 KB
  • #24,531
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:02am Oct 20, 2010 3:02am
Quoting Mike Haran
I am expecting the AUDUSD to fall in the next couple of hours, I have two price target 0.98000 and 0.98313, these levels become interesting when the time is up, if they are breached then I will look for other levels. See the left hand side of the white line, the most important part of this is timing the markets. I scaled in last night based on my timing method and woke up this morning to 104 pips and counting, I scale into a position as I know that my timing can be a bar out in time and that can be 20-30 pips.

As a trader it is pointless to try...
the current action suggests a move towards 0.9850. however, should it reverse, it can break yesterday's low.
  • #24,532
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:42am Oct 20, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Mike Haran
I am expecting the AUDUSD to fall in the next couple of hours, I have two price target 0.98000 and 0.98313, these levels become interesting when the time is up, if they are breached then I will look for other levels. See the left hand side of the white line, the most important part of this is timing the markets. I scaled in last night based on my timing method and woke up this morning to 104 pips and counting, I scale into a position as I know that my timing can be a bar out in time and that can be 20-30 pips.

As a trader it is pointless to try...

i lvoe 0.98313. yummy yummy~~!!!

swing swingg~~!!!
Swinger Club
  • #24,533
  • Edited 4:37am Oct 20, 2010 3:44am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting Mike Haran
I am expecting the AUDUSD to fall in the next couple of hours, I have two price target 0.98000 and 0.98313, these levels become interesting when the time is up, if they are breached then I will look for other levels. See the left hand side of the white line, the most important part of this is timing the markets. I scaled in last night based on my timing method and woke up this morning to 104 pips and counting, I scale into a position as I know that my timing can be a bar out in time and that can be 20-30 pips.

As a trader it is pointless to try...

If we are in 4th-wave, we couldn't touch 0.9801 (bottom of 1st-wave)...

However, this could be 2nd of a extended 3rd, then the next fall will be very hard.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #24,534
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:58am Oct 20, 2010 3:58am
That idea that you cannot touch the bottom of wave one is something I have read in many elliot books. No disrespect to you in any way at all, you are stating what you think is a fact. Its not like that though. I have spent ages studying price movement getting on for 4 years now. Elliot waves and wave 1 cannot be broken is a myth, it is broken in many wave structures, usually if broken wave 4 comes into the top of 1 by about 30-38%, if you are right in the wave counting then wave 4 cannot exceed wave 2, thats something it does not do.

Elliot really worked on channels, later analysis of his work developed into wave structures, then certain people started to publish wave rules. In effect diluting elliots work.

The wave 1 low however is looking nice in this case:-), but I am very much more focused on time rather than price.

Thank you for pointing it out though. Just for your information as well the idea of 5 waves is rubbish, especially on smaller time frames, the markets tend to break into fractals of 7,9,11,13 waves channels and pitch forks are far closer to elliots original idea and will assist you in your trading.

Kind regards


Mike Haran
  • #24,535
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:14am Oct 20, 2010 5:14am
I have placed one order beneath the last hourly bar low, one order at 0.97910, I will cancel one order if the other order is filled. I also have an order at 0.9800 just in case.

This trade can be left as my next turn is 5am tommorrow morning, so I am leaving this now, I expect the low of yesterday to be taken out and then some.

Good luck to you all


Mike Haran
  • #24,536
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:15am Oct 20, 2010 6:15am
Looks like the turn came in on time. Please see attached chart for the next time and price target t2 is my prefered level some 180 pips away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd timing6.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #24,537
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:29am Oct 20, 2010 7:29am
We are now up at the 0.9800 level and also this is a pich fork edge on the hour chart. My first attempt was stopped out for BE. I resold again at .9800. My stop is at 0.99034.

Mostly traders fail not because they are wrong in direction, its because they are wrong in setting stops.

A lot of people think ok I have a $2000 account I can risk 3% on this trade ie $60 then they set a 20 point stop and trade at $3 per point. They pick an entry and within 5 minutes they are stopped out. "Its fixed" they cry and yes it certainly appears to be the case, if you trade like this then surely you will evaporate your account even using proper trade sizes. So what you should do.

Simple, use the same risk control and 50 points of stop or base it on where the market should not go if this move is correct, pattern based, ie it should not exceed the last swing etc.

Stop setting can tuirn you from a losing trader into a winning trader. I try to get in at precise points in time and price, but I always use a reasonable stop.


Good luck


Mike Haran
  • #24,538
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:52am Oct 20, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Mike Haran
We are now up at the 0.9800 level and also this is a pich fork edge on the hour chart. My first attempt was stopped out for BE. I resold again at .9800. My stop is at 0.99034.

Mostly traders fail not because they are wrong in direction, its because they are wrong in setting stops.

A lot of people think ok I have a $2000 account I can risk 3% on this trade ie $60 then they set a 20 point stop and trade at $3 per point. They pick an entry and within 5 minutes they are stopped out. "Its fixed" they cry and yes it certainly appears to be the...
huge words for 9th post : D
so I don't know ehre the journey goes, but it's time to short now on au, just searching for a good entry point
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #24,539
  • Oct 20, 2010 8:02am Oct 20, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Mike Haran
We are now up at the 0.9800 level and also this is a pich fork edge on the hour chart. My first attempt was stopped out for BE. I resold again at .9800. My stop is at 0.99034.

Mostly traders fail not because they are wrong in direction, its because they are wrong in setting stops.

A lot of people think ok I have a $2000 account I can risk 3% on this trade ie $60 then they set a 20 point stop and trade at $3 per point. They pick an entry and within 5 minutes they are stopped out. "Its fixed" they cry and yes it certainly appears to be the...

Sold at 0.9800. Waiting to profit
Take my view with a pinch of salt!
  • #24,540
  • Oct 20, 2010 8:22am Oct 20, 2010 8:22am
Nice comment ;-),

Forexfactory is a place where I read a lot of good information, its a cracking forum. I can help a lot of you become winning traders, I was taught pattern trading by an expert, studied chaos theory and applied it to market analysis.

I wrote a book on trading patterns which took a lot of the rubbish out of it. I started pattern trading and failed badly, took me ages to work out what I was lacking and apply it.

But, for me the biggest discovery was market timing, and pitch forks, I was taught wave analysis by one of the leading lights in the industry. But the most amazing bit of information was taught to me by a friend I taught to trade, he taught me more about trading then I could imagine. Sometimes by helping others you get helped many times in return.

These trends are long, and once you are in them they run for ages. If I can help raise some of you to become sucessful traders then I have done something positive, and in this world of negative that is a good thing. Trading can make you rich, a lot of the information out there will make you lose. I got taken in and so will many of you, it left me thinking I was a failure, I am not and part of the desire to help others is based on this fact, too many of you think you can't do it because what you have learnt is wrong.

I know a lot and I am more than happy to share it with you all. I am not always right and I don't think I ever can be, however trading is about the only business where even 50% winning trades will make you rich.


Kind regards to you all


Mike Haran
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