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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,461
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:55am Oct 19, 2010 2:55am
Quoting Custos
entered in a new trade: gbp/usd h4.

Confluence of two trendlines, with the daily trend, lets see how it works out.
The way you use break of trendlines and retracement touch of them. Are you familiar with GREENIUS AND EMACRO?

GREENIUS:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257620

http://fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/964_11284889713.png

EMACRO:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222729

They strongly reinforces my use of trendlines to trade. especially, greenius. (emacro chart is a bit messier than greenius'
  • #8,462
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:58am Oct 19, 2010 2:58am
Quoting Mortician.
The way you use trendlines. Are you familiar with GREENIUS AND EMACRO?

GREENIUS:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257620

EMACRO:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222729

They strongly reinforces my use of trendlines to trade. especially, greenius. (emacro chart is a bit messier than greenius'
thanks for the links, gonna read through the two threads.

cheers
  • #8,463
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:03am Oct 19, 2010 3:03am
Quoting Custos
your post made me think of a great discussion point concerning news.

I know it is typically preached that you shouldn't trade around news, and I actually also always thought that this is a good rule.

Now, if we trade with the trend on the daily / weekly or even monthly, isn't it reasonable to assume that the news also follow this trend? I mean, why do we have a trend in the first place? Because of better and better news / worse and worse news. So if we trade with the long-term trend should we actually really worry about news coming out? Isn't...
I basically dont care about any news with H4/d1/w1/m1 trades; unless it is interest rates news or NFP news or QE news or GDP news.
On lower time frames, the volatility of red/orange news can hit tight stops.

That is just me.
  • #8,464
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:08am Oct 19, 2010 3:08am
Quoting Mortician.
I basically dont care about any news with H4/d1/w1/m1 trades; unless it is interest rates news or NFP news or QE news or GDP news.
On lower time frames, the volatility of red/orange news can hit tight stops.

That is just me.
I know what you mean. of course, the tighter your stop the more likely it is that you get stopped out. I was actually thinking about maybe increasing the stop & lowering lot-size when trading lower tfs, if news come out to incorporate the spikes. Question is how big the stop has to be.

But you are totally right, the higher the time-frame, the less the news will affect one's trade.
  • #8,465
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:11am Oct 19, 2010 3:11am
Quoting Custos
your post made me think of a great discussion point concerning news.

I know it is typically preached that you shouldn't trade around news, and I actually also always thought that this is a good rule.

Now, if we trade with the trend on the daily / weekly or even monthly, isn't it reasonable to assume that the news also follow this trend? I mean, why do we have a trend in the first place? Because of better and better news / worse and worse news. So if we trade with the long-term trend should we actually really worry about news coming out? Isn't...

Ok, but what about spread? if spread rizes to 10-20 pips plus increased volatility on say E/U and G/U, I won't mention other pairs, with stop of say 30-50 pips it is a good way to get stopped. Plus news can bring shorter term trend contra to overall trend. We can lose money this way, but overall big trend always prevail. we do not have to go far, just check GBP/JPY. after that huge move up, it started getting down slowly but surely. Anyway, that move was caused by Aud news.... We could be right about overall trend but would still lose money.

GBP/JPY made b, now I am looking at p. hopefully there will be c.
Interesting what will happen after German news at 5:00 a.m. EST. EU is also forming long set up.
  • #8,466
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:18am Oct 19, 2010 3:18am
Quoting shiko
Ok, but what about spread? if spread rizes to 10-20 pips plus increased volatility on say E/U and G/U, I won't mention other pairs, with stop of say 30-50 pips it is a good way to get stopped. Plus news can bring shorter term trend contra to overall trend. We can lose money this way, but overall big trend always prevail. we do not have to go far, just check GBP/JPY. after that huge move up, it started getting down slowly but surely. Anyway, that move was caused by Aud news.... We could be right about overall trend but would still lose money.

GBP/JPY...
Hey shiko,

I was looking at gbp/jpy, to me it looks like a strong area of support on daily...
  • #8,467
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:23am Oct 19, 2010 3:23am
Quoting Mortician.
I basically dont care about any news with H4/d1/w1/m1 trades; unless it is interest rates news or NFP news or QE news or GDP news.
On lower time frames, the volatility of red/orange news can hit tight stops.

That is just me.

I understand your stops must be really wide. i have checked that thread you mentioned of DANUK. He trades with at least 100 pips stop as I got it or more. I guess you use equally large stops, right?
I guess if you enter on daily or even 4H chart 30-50 pips stop doe snot make sense.
  • #8,468
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:26am Oct 19, 2010 3:26am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hey shiko,

I was looking at gbp/jpy, to me it looks like a strong area of support on daily...

yeah, after it stalled I have checked daily chart. Looks like a no trade for now.
  • #8,469
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:48am Oct 19, 2010 5:48am
my opinion to news is that they disturb the priceflow. they may accelerate or change trends drastically which then results in some corrections before the price gets back to its moderate flow ....
however, I don't relate my tradingdecisions to news, except for nfp where I try not to enter positions close by
  • #8,470
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:56am Oct 19, 2010 7:56am
Hm, support or not, look at it. GBP/JPY broke and I was sleeping through this.
  • #8,471
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:23am Oct 19, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Mortician.
Well, as per written above. The BPC in this trade on H4 has been completed. trade triggered on sunday. D/H4.
When price moved by 1:1, BE the trade
1st PT = 79.10(r/r=1:3)
2nd PT= Let the trend take care of the rest......
1st PT met at 79.10 for +120 pips. Like i said above, i am leaving the rest for the trend gods to do as they see fit.
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  • #8,472
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:03pm Oct 19, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Custos
I know what you mean. of course, the tighter your stop the more likely it is that you get stopped out. I was actually thinking about maybe increasing the stop & lowering lot-size when trading lower tfs, if news come out to incorporate the spikes. Question is how big the stop has to be.

But you are totally right, the higher the time-frame, the less the news will affect one's trade.

I guess you can calculate the average volatility for each pairs/crosses when certain type of news are released. Maybe that data can be used to determine how wide your SL should be per specific type of news. Kathy Lien had some data on that news based volatility a couple of years ago(in her book "daytrading the currency market"),...you may need to find the updated version online.
  • #8,473
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:40pm Oct 19, 2010 2:40pm
well, at least I did not miss Eur/Jpy.
  • #8,474
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:12pm Oct 19, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting Mortician.
I guess you can calculate the average volatility for each pairs/crosses when certain type of news are released. Maybe that data can be used to determine how wide your SL should be per specific type of news. Kathy Lien had some data on that news based volatility a couple of years ago(in her book "daytrading the currency market"),...you may need to find the updated version online.
thanks for the hint, and thanks again for the two threads you gave me, they are pretty informative.

cheers
  • #8,475
  • Oct 19, 2010 5:23pm Oct 19, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting Custos
thanks for the hint, and thanks again for the two threads you gave me, they are pretty informative.

cheers
It looks like today news had some impact upon some pairs. E/U and A/U practically started reversing. Probably it is about proverbial last straw and/ or very strong level/ number as is a case with A/U.
I would love to see A/U to start going down. it is a long way. Hard to imaging Aud or cad getting much more expensive than USD. It is actually a unique moment in history as almost all dollars but NZD are actually 1:1
I actually entered on bpc long E/U, but after it failed to break 1.2950 after 2 attempts after news and started coming down, I closed everything.
I guess it is better to stay away before news. I started trading at the fall of 2008 and remember news related volatility. Nothing like now. E/J remember was moving about 200 pips up and down within 1-2 minutes. Or 200 pips move of E/U on reduced interest rate news. This can ha0ppen any time. I guess better to be safe.
  • #8,476
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:56pm Oct 19, 2010 6:56pm
entered another E/J short. half position closed for 30 pips, same as risk, the rest left to run. 2 positions are running with stops at BE. Let's see where they will run. I guess Level around 106.00 is a logical target.
I decided not to short GBP/JPY. too close to previous low and trend lines. watching for this level to get broken and confirm, then will be looking for opportunity to enter.
  • #8,477
  • Oct 19, 2010 7:36pm Oct 19, 2010 7:36pm
What I have come to notice is that signals on 1H chart is very unreliable. Unless we have all 3MAs in order on 4H there is no point to trade only 1H chart set up. I entered short A/U. but after seeing it failed to break previous low, I closed it at BE, it went against my entry then. On 4H up trend is violated but there is no set up and no down trend.
It looks like my second Eur/Jpy position going to die now. stop at 112.00. the first one stop at 113.00.
  • #8,478
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:04am Oct 20, 2010 5:04am
Quoting shiko
What I have come to notice is that signals on 1H chart is very unreliable. Unless we have all 3MAs in order on 4H there is no point to trade only 1H chart set up. I entered short A/U. but after seeing it failed to break previous low, I closed it at BE, it went against my entry then. On 4H up trend is violated but there is no set up and no down trend.
It looks like my second Eur/Jpy position going to die now. stop at 112.00. the first one stop at 113.00.
the trend hasnt been in place long enough I think. Hector states that price should swing harmonically off the 30/50 area sma area. For this to happen you need the trend to not be in its early stages. i.e. it needs to have happened a couple of time already.
  • #8,479
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:15am Oct 20, 2010 5:15am
Quoting NaughtyPip
the trend hasnt been in place long enough I think. Hector states that price should swing harmonically off the 30/50 area sma area. For this to happen you need the trend to not be in its early stages. i.e. it needs to have happened a couple of time already.
sorry, but I don't understand what you talk about.

aud/usd daily has been in an uptrend since june 2010
eur/jpy weekly has been in a downtrend since october 2009

don't know where this should be in early stages, we are in perfectly healthy trends in my opinion.

But maybe you could elaborate more or show with charts why you think we are in early stages only.

cheers
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  • #8,480
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:33am Oct 20, 2010 5:33am
Coming back to news. Hope you guys don't get fed up yet!

This is just pure theory, not tested at all, but opinions are welcomed.
Now we already agreed that we would get stopped out on most setups when trading the news.

However, let's forget about hector setups or any setups for one moment. Why not just entering in direction of the trend BEFORE the news come out and then let the news work itself out. If we are at a loss after an hour of the news coming out, we cancel out the trade, if we are in profit, we move stop to b/e. Now, we would of course have a couple of 50 to 200 pip losers, if news are against the overall trend. But in the long-term I believe, if we pyramid ourselves with the long-term trend, we would stack up some nice positions which more than outweigh the occasional losers. Of course, the initial lot-size has to be quite low to let statistics work itself out.

Again, just pure theory, but would welcome a discussion as usual.
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