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  • #9,041
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:32am Oct 18, 2010 8:32am
A/U. I say down but H4 stochs don't currently support my theory.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 153 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,042
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:22pm Oct 18, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. I say down but H4 stochs don't currently support my theory.
Nothing is going to be clear until after the Fed announce they stance on QE on the next FOMC. Meantime I manage to get out of my old short that I've been holding for quite a while with a slight scratch. I'd say it might give parity one last try before going downhill.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,043
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:40pm Oct 18, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting amyc
My thoughts on US indicies.

First chart is monthly, from these levels there is a high probability test of 1098 before the trend continues higher and breaks out of 1200 by the end of the year.

Second chart is 4hr and shows that before the down move can happen price needs to move up into the green highs on Friday, 1183. If it touches this level and closes the week below then I will take shorts targeting 1098.
Finally got the setup I was after on Monday. The move off the green highs and the lower close under the daily pivot point. For Tuesday I think there is good probability that it will break the green lows at 1162. Once that happens then a downmove is confirmed, but if it finds support at 1162 then that is bullish and it will probably make a higher high.
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  • #9,044
  • Edited 7:34pm Oct 18, 2010 7:22pm | Edited 7:34pm
Hi Marc,
AU back in the H4 trend line, let’s see how this candle closes in a couple of hours. Also, Monetary Policy meeting in a few minutes. Could be parity again.
  • #9,045
  • Oct 19, 2010 1:48pm Oct 19, 2010 1:48pm
HI everyone. Hope you guys are are riding the current market down.

Marc. Am sure this is one big red candle that would delight you.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,046
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:08pm Oct 19, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting amyc
Finally got the setup I was after on Monday. The move off the green highs and the lower close under the daily pivot point. For Tuesday I think there is good probability that it will break the green lows at 1162. Once that happens then a downmove is confirmed, but if it finds support at 1162 then that is bullish and it will probably make a higher high.
How in the heck did you foresee this? It was the Chinese cash rate and bad economic news in the U.S. today that pushed it to this level. What if we hadn't received this news today...do you think it would have still fallen to the current level?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,047
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:28pm Oct 19, 2010 2:28pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Flow
HI everyone. Hope you guys are are riding the current market down.

Marc. Am sure this is one big red candle that would delight you.
Hey Flow...
I was riding it only for a lil bit. Had some shorts on AUD/JPY and E/U. But cashed that much to early. Still some nice pips in my pocket.

Now lets see how we continue. Dollar strikes back
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #9,048
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:33pm Oct 19, 2010 2:33pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting MarcVUM
How in the heck did you foresee this? It was the Chinese cash rate and bad economic news in the U.S. today that pushed it to this level. What if we hadn't received this news today...do you think it would have still fallen to the current level?
hey Marc...
Ya. Amy was spot. 1162 provided some support again on the first test today but now it seems we cracked it.
Now lets see how we will close today.

Did you pull some pips out of todays drop?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #9,049
  • Oct 19, 2010 2:53pm Oct 19, 2010 2:53pm
Hi guys;
I'm riding the USD/CAD and the EUR/USD.
Good luck to all of you friends
  • #9,050
  • Edited 3:25pm Oct 19, 2010 3:10pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey Flow...
I was riding it only for a lil bit. Had some shorts on AUD/JPY and E/U. But cashed that much to early. Still some nice pips in my pocket.

Now lets see how we continue. Dollar strikes back
Glad to hear that Tuner. Small long to ride the pull back.

Just thinking out loud. Not forgetting FOMC and the QE issue by the fed.

Sorry my "thoughts"are some what messy, OR - decent pullback?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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May the pip flow with you
  • #9,051
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:11pm Oct 19, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting seifo005
Hi guys;
I'm riding the USD/CAD and the EUR/USD.
Good luck to all of you friends
Likewise.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,052
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:12pm Oct 19, 2010 3:12pm
Quoting MarcVUM
How in the heck did you foresee this? It was the Chinese cash rate and bad economic news in the U.S. today that pushed it to this level. What if we hadn't received this news today...do you think it would have still fallen to the current level?
Amy, does the pivot point system works as well on FX apart from Equity Indices?

Care to share?
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,053
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:17pm Oct 19, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting Tuner
hey Marc...
Ya. Amy was spot. 1162 provided some support again on the first test today but now it seems we cracked it.
Now lets see how we will close today.

Did you pull some pips out of todays drop?
Ya, but I was in last night when AUD monetary policy minutes came out... she dropped about 50 pips for me...I set the S/L to B/E and woke up this morning to find out that I was taken out of the trade by the exact pip!! I feel like I was cheated... so I'm not trading until I get the right mindset back. Just a bitter person today with all of the economic and political crap happening in this world! I wish I had enough money to buy a small island and say goodbye to what we consider to be "civilization"!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,054
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:29pm Oct 19, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Ya, but I was in last night when AUD monetary policy minutes came out... she dropped about 50 pips for me...I set the S/L to B/E and woke up this morning to find out that I was taken out of the trade by the exact pip!! I feel like I was cheated... so I'm not trading until I get the right mindset back. Just a bitter person today with all of the economic and political crap happening in this world! I wish I had enough money to buy a small island and say goodbye to what we consider to be "civilization"!
Do know that when you have established your own sovereign island, we will be missing you here.

Come on Marc, you can snap out of it.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,055
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:39pm Oct 19, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Ya, but I was in last night when AUD monetary policy minutes came out... she dropped about 50 pips for me...I set the S/L to B/E and woke up this morning to find out that I was taken out of the trade by the exact pip!! I feel like I was cheated... so I'm not trading until I get the right mindset back. Just a bitter person today with all of the economic and political crap happening in this world! I wish I had enough money to buy a small island and say goodbye to what we consider to be "civilization"!

you and me both bro
  • #9,056
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:56pm Oct 19, 2010 3:56pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting MarcVUM
Ya, but I was in last night when AUD monetary policy minutes came out... she dropped about 50 pips for me...I set the S/L to B/E and woke up this morning to find out that I was taken out of the trade by the exact pip!! I feel like I was cheated... so I'm not trading until I get the right mindset back. Just a bitter person today with all of the economic and political crap happening in this world! I wish I had enough money to buy a small island and say goodbye to what we consider to be "civilization"!
That really sucks...
I also had that before. That's when the "psycho-factor" of this business sets in. But things will settle down and it doesn't change anything about your excellent skills as a trader.
But if you are going to buy an island (Caribbean maybe?) I'd sur like to visit you there one day
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #9,057
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:02pm Oct 19, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Flow
Do know that when you have established your own sovereign island, we will be missing you here.

Come on Marc, you can snap out of it.
I got short at 99038 last night at about 9:15pm est. At 2:00am I was something like 50 pips up [50 pips!!!] (so I moved my S/L to B/E) and then went to bed for a nap...Then at 5:00am est she moved up to 99018 which took me out of the trade...99018 + 2 pip spread = 99038 which is where my S/L was at! Then she tanked! WTF. Didn't go any higher, oh no of course not...it was just looking to stop me out and ruin the day! Ya, I'm bitter. I feel like the banks knew exactly where I was and what I was doing.

What irks me the most is that my leverage was cut in half to 50:1 yesterday due to the CFTC / FinReg bill that "my" government passed to "protect" me. Retail forex traders like myself had no part of the financial collapse in 2008...it was the banks but the banks are not nearly as regulated now as I am... 50% pay cut sucks...now watch them increase my taxes on the back-end. that will be a squeeze! Damn the banks and Damn the fat cats in government!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,058
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:08pm Oct 19, 2010 4:08pm
A/U. In case this chart can help anyone. The uptrend has been broken and if you read the PA throughout the entire chart you may notice that we are in for more of a downside than what we witnessed today.

I'm counting down on the number of trades I need to retire...not far away now! I'll get over my tantrum in a day or two and will be psychologically ready to meet the banks in battle yet again! They are big and clumsy while we are small and clever... We will beat them at their own game!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 159 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,059
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:20pm Oct 19, 2010 4:20pm
Here's a chart form last year...one of my personal favorites.... that will make you feel a little better.....

http://www.forexfantasies.com/boards...1590&mode=view
  • #9,060
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:56pm Oct 19, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting MarcVUM
How in the heck did you foresee this? It was the Chinese cash rate and bad economic news in the U.S. today that pushed it to this level. What if we hadn't received this news today...do you think it would have still fallen to the current level?
You'd be suprised how many times the news shows up at just the right time. I think it still would have got there without this particular piece of news, anything would have done, if it wasn't china they would have blamed it on boa's results or something else.
Remember back at 1200 in April the goldman sachs news showed up on just the right day, and back in January Obamas new regulation threats were news on just the right day to bring the market down as well.
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