Odds are with a 4hr KISS | Page 19 | Forex Factory

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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #361
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:40am Oct 11, 2010 7:40am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, is the trandline for this pair valid?

The green trendline you drew looks good to me...we are in an uptrend. And price is above the 20ma. However, I would be cautious on taking a long AU position right now...price action on your chart shows that AU just made a Double Top(pretty close to it) or you can say it made a Lower High. Also, it looks like MACD is starting to slope down and we may have divergence. After the strong run up in price, it wouldn't surprise me if we have some type of correction.

Trade Smart!
  • #362
  • Oct 11, 2010 8:27am Oct 11, 2010 8:27am
Hi 211, thank you for the advice. I am actually thinking for the price to make the thrid tap on the trend line (AU). I am not going long at this moment. Cheers
  • #363
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:06am Oct 12, 2010 6:06am
There have been 2 trades this week so far....one on the GU that happened last night and one on the EJ that actually setup on Sunday/early Monday. I'm a little disappointed in myself for not seeing the EJ trade and taking that...but I won't dwell on it, must move on to the next trade!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #364
  • Oct 12, 2010 7:54am Oct 12, 2010 7:54am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, EJ 4 hr slowing diverenge. Price is up but MACD sloping down.. how will you play this setup? Thanks
No worry 211... there will be a trade round the corner man.
  • #365
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:07am Oct 12, 2010 8:07am
Quoting freedomsg
No worry 211... there will be a trade round the corner man.
Thanks bud. I just noticed the quote at the bottom of your posts...I like that, it's good!
  • #366
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:23am Oct 12, 2010 8:23am
Hi 211, EJ daily - price is going down but MACD did not. Price went down after the bearish engulf pattern. Soc near oversold... what is yr take? Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #367
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:25am Oct 12, 2010 8:25am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Thanks bud. I just noticed the quote at the bottom of your posts...I like that, it's good!
Thanks Br... trying to practise it ... lose opinion and not money
  • #368
  • Oct 12, 2010 9:01am Oct 12, 2010 9:01am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, EJ daily - price is going down but MACD did not. Price went down after the bearish engulf pattern. Soc near oversold... what is yr take? Thanks
Hi Freedomsg,

I really like the 4hr setups when they align with the higher time frames. Thanks for posting that chart and pointing out the bearish engulfing daily candle last week...that would have been even MORE reason to take the 4hr short setup on Sunday night!!!

As for what I think now...I'm still cautious with the EJ. If you look at my chart example below, you'll see there was a long period of rangy movement and resistance(yellow box on the left). And it appeared that price broke above that area this past week(yellow box on the right)...but not it appears price has moved right back down into that area...so it could be choppy trading again. Looks for the good breakout runs and enter on pullbacks...Stay AWAY from rangy price movements!

Trade smart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #369
  • Oct 12, 2010 10:03am Oct 12, 2010 10:03am
Hi 211. thanks for the notes.
  • #370
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:24am Oct 15, 2010 8:24am
We started out with 2 short trades on GU and EJ this week and are finishing off with 2 long trades on EU. Overall not a bad week, 4 winners for total 250pips. Not bad considering I typically just look for 100pips/week goal...that will help during the slow weeks when I don't reach 100pips! I hope you all are enjoying this thread and finding some success! Have a great weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #371
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:54am Oct 15, 2010 11:54am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Overall not a bad week, 4 winners for total 250pips.
Well done. Outstanding week.

You always 'see' a good deal more than I see. So, thank you for your excellent charts with annotated explanations. Very useful.

Also, I know this isn't about MM, but I wonder if you would offer your personal limit (%) per trade? You see people suggesting 2% limits per trade often, do you use this standard or adjust based on your perception of the potential quality of the entry? Maybe accept more risk on 'better' prospect trades?

Take care, Forest
  • #372
  • Oct 15, 2010 1:17pm Oct 15, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Well done. Outstanding week.

You always 'see' a good deal more than I see. So, thank you for your excellent charts with annotated explanations. Very useful.

Also, I know this isn't about MM, but I wonder if you would offer your personal limit (%) per trade? You see people suggesting 2% limits per trade often, do you use this standard or adjust based on your perception of the potential quality of the entry? Maybe accept more risk on 'better' prospect trades?

Take care, Forest
Hi Forest,

I use 1mini lot per $2000 in my account. Example, if I had $20,000 in my account I would be trading 1 standard lot. It's a bit aggressive, if you use the standard 100pip stoploss...1 loss would be 5% of your account. I'm ok with that since I'm so use to and experienced with this method. But it's not for everyone!!!

For any new traders I would recommend demo trading first OR for those who don't like demo trading...go with something like 1mini per $5000. Or if you want to be REALLY conservative, go with 1mini per $10,000 in your account. The choice is up to each trader and what they are personally comfortabl with.

Just remember, TRADE SMART!!!
  • #373
  • Edited 11:50am Oct 16, 2010 11:48am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I'm ok with that since I'm so use to and experienced with this method. But it's not for everyone!!!

TRADE SMART!!!

Actually, I think this is an excellent answer. You are very comfortable, and successful, with this approach and understand that, over time, you have a positive expected value (gain) per trade. As long as the EV is positive the strong argument is to bump up the risk since the reward is essentially known (maybe not on this trade but over a basket of trades, yes).

And, truthfully, many would see that 5% as near the top of a trade risk, but acceptable.

I'm not ready to go there, BUT I am glad to know that this kind of trading is very possible.

BTW, what program do you use to annotate your charts for posting?

Best, Forest
  • #374
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:05pm Oct 16, 2010 11:05pm
Hi Forest,

I just save the chart from MT4 to my computer...and then I use Microsoft Paint to edit the charts.
  • #375
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:04am Oct 18, 2010 9:04am
I typically don't post trades ahead of time because I want each trader to learn how to recognize trade setups and trade for themselves....I don't want to be a "signal caller." But, in this case I thought I would help out some new traders to give some insight in my thought process on what I look for before a trade happens....which is basically the same as all my other examples.

Whether these trades actually materialize or not is up to the market...but I know what I'm looking for now and where price needs to go in order to enter.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #376
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:41pm Oct 18, 2010 3:41pm
See AU. I know it's not on your first page of trade preferences.

We have a cross of the 20 Now awaiting retest, if any, and for MACD to hopefully turn up although it is slightly positive.

Seems to be a valid prospect.

Excuse other data on charts. Not for trading the KISS.

Forest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #377
  • Oct 18, 2010 5:58pm Oct 18, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
See AU. I know it's not on your first page of trade preferences.

We have a cross of the 20 Now awaiting retest, if any, and for MACD to hopefully turn up although it is slightly positive.

Seems to be a valid prospect.

Excuse other data on charts. Not for trading the KISS.

Forest
Hi Forest,

You know, I was thinking the same thing on AU...but I don't usually trade it, so I didn't mention it. I left it up to you guys! haha Also, I try not to get myself into too many trades at one time...especially is they are all tied together(like AU, EU, GU all are based on the dollar...so you could have 3 losing trades if the dollar is weak and you went short those three pairs). That's another reason I try to stick with EU, GU and EJ.

But regarding AU, I don't see a setup just yet. However, it looks like it's making a Lower High...so shorts could be on the table in the next candle or two.

Trade Smart!
  • #378
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:15am Oct 19, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I typically don't post trades ahead of time because I want each trader to learn how to recognize trade setups and trade for themselves....I don't want to be a "signal caller." But, in this case I thought I would help out some new traders to give some insight in my thought process on what I look for before a trade happens....which is basically the same as all my other examples.

Whether these trades actually materialize or not is up to the market...but I know what I'm looking for now and where price needs to go in order to enter.

Here's the follow up on these trades I posted yesterday morning. Not a bad way to start out the week...2 trades and a 125pips profit! Now we just have to sit back and let the market come to us with the next trade!

Trade Smart!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #379
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:47am Oct 19, 2010 6:47am
I hope someone was able to get this trade...I missed it because I was working on the chart examples above that I posted. And this trade happened really quick!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #380
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:56am Oct 19, 2010 6:56am
Hi 211, I took this trade few hours ago. The white arrow show a short term bearlish Harami and two candles later was a bearlish engulfment (orange arrow). I should have wait till it retrace back to the 20 ma (lesson learn). I short at the next candle open after the bearlish engulfment. My question is the exit... how do u place it? I tp 10 pips before the red line. Am i doing it wrongly... thanks and cheers
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