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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #77,621
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:33pm Oct 17, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting mihazupan1
I'd say that quality is more important as quantity here Would you rather have 20 trades a year and 40% ROI for example or 384 trades a year and 20% ROI? As far as I see this is like digging through the pile of sh*t and looking for the pearls and only pearls in it.

That's why it might not be easy to trade for a living in my opinion. You'd be under a big pressure to make a living every month and to remain patient to take the best trades only. At this point I see trading as a great supplement
I completely agree with this Miha But imagine if you take only 10 trades a year. You spend 3 years and made 30 trades and a great profit... Then in next 3 years you lost all the money, no worries it happens you keep on trading the next 3 years and lost again... 9 years of your life just passed and you learned that your system only makes 30% win rate...you won 30 and you lost 60...

Of course this is an exaggerated example. But how else you can judge your performance? It is definately not the time, it is number of trades... If I traded J16 for years and knew and be confident in myself of course less is better, but now the quality and quantity both must be adequate for me to make an adequate and objective judgement of my performance.
  • #77,622
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:49pm Oct 17, 2010 2:49pm
Hello there guys,
It is always a sweet sight when i'm here.
Now let me show you something what i look at my charts when i open them today.
I need your help with this,thanks to mike now i only find good places with confluent and don't waste my bullets everywhere.
Now i'm kinda wait trader.
Now i was looking at the charts of euo/Chf and saw pinnish bar and kinda am interested in it,in terms of real money,i know it is forming in range but god i love that confluence must have been 3 fib retraces and 1 expansion.
This could be the signal(preemptive one to get out).
trend is down,i marked confluence as a biggy.lol
But i see 100 SMA blocking the bottom right at 1.3340 would a good place to play this be at break below 100 sma and pin break or a retrace in smaller TF.
Or not at all.

Tell me seniors am i in the money or not,as i see it it is quick profit atleast could be run though.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/5107/eurchf.gif
Regards
Taz
  • #77,623
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:56pm Oct 17, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting Adilius07
I completely agree with this Miha But imagine if you take only 10 trades a year. You spend 3 years and made 30 trades and a great profit... Then in next 3 years you lost all the money, no worries it happens you keep on trading the next 3 years and lost again... 9 years of your life just passed and you learned that your system only makes 30% win rate...you won 30 and you lost 60...

Of course this is an exaggerated example. But how else you can judge your performance? It is definately not the time, it is number of trades......
Hi Adilius,
Have you tried Back testing? I IMHO its pretty fast way to find out if something works or not.
Anything can happen - You never know
  • #77,624
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:18pm Oct 17, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting kwikwis
Hi Adilius,
Have you tried Back testing? I IMHO its pretty fast way to find out if something works or not.
Hello Kwikwis, yes I did. And the results are really awesome I should say. I did it on FX Pairs, 80% and more. Some show even better results. But looking back is much easier, if I see a weak setup I can tell to myself that I would never have taken it in real time.... but who knows would that be so in reality? Backtests are more accurate with the systems where some indicator does something etc.. but here when we have to use a discreation that much - it is not that easy... however is a good practice anyway, I would highly recommend.

Here are some thoughts from some of my backtests if you are interested:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=73687
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=73461
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=73715
  • #77,625
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:18pm Oct 17, 2010 3:18pm
There you go another beauty.
I want your call mike if you are not taking i'm not taking because i believe your call on pinbar is best i want to be nothing but the best.
So here is scenerio i see a lot of confluence the, 23.6 fib ret of big move is right up there like a barrier at the top of pin.
It is emerging very much from trend.
and has a quite big over 100 pip nose.
and great confluence. bearish close.
what else is missing,open/close in previous bar.
Not to mention euro dollar has not retraced.
And the BRN 1.400.
and yes i do respect other senior too,i am dying for your views,am i selecting best setups or not.
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/4208/eurodollar.gif
Regards
Taz
  • #77,626
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:33pm Oct 17, 2010 3:33pm
Hello there guys,
Now this one i know our respected people here have posted just double triple add this to them
The cable Pinnish bar below BRN 1.6000.
Just wanted to be post here so i may get extra confirm of my zones.

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/5934/cabletable.gif


Regards
Taz
  • #77,627
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:40pm Oct 17, 2010 3:40pm
Hope this is not another friday bar Mumbo Jumbo.
Man i need some setups,just joking.lol
  • #77,628
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:47pm Oct 17, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting Adilius07
Hello Kwikwis, yes I did. And the results are really awesome I should say. I did it on FX Pairs, 80% and more. Some show even better results. But looking back is much easier, if I see a weak setup I can tell to myself that I would never have taken it in real time.... but who knows would that be so in reality?...
You did a great job according to this links.
After i did my back tests, I worked on my position sizing algorithm and the next step was to gain confidence for live trading. NLP (Neuro-linguistic programming) did a great job!
Anything can happen - You never know
  • #77,629
  • Oct 17, 2010 4:40pm Oct 17, 2010 4:40pm
Can someone clarify about diverengence, please. Does it have to be on two consequitive lows (or highs) I saw this chart and was shocked - I thought that doesn't matter ( I looked at the extremes always with many small lows/highs in between...)

Is the following pic as the only way Div must be? Always consecutive lows/highs???

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1283241685
  • #77,630
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:13pm Oct 17, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting 666Doom
Hello there guys,
Now this one i know our respected people here have posted just double triple add this to them
The cable Pinnish bar below BRN 1.6000.
Just wanted to be post here so i may get extra confirm of my zones.




Regards
Taz
Hey Taz

Here are MY personal views on these two pairs. Again of course just how I see and go about picking trades. Just pasting these from else where.

regarding Eur/usd
Hey Chee

This is an easy pass for me since the beob was not able to close under the previous bars low. This could very well be the sign of reversal after this large run up but because of the lack of strength on the close which is one of my rules with outside bars I will simply stand aside on this one.

Hope you had a nice weekend


regarding gbp/usd
Hey Pip welcome to the site hope you are enjoying things http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...lies/smile.gif

I am not too keen on this pinbar for a few reasons.

Notice how the previous bar high is very high up on the pinbar. So although technically a pinbar, I think it looks very weak versus this strong up move. There are a lot of issues that it will have to tackle to the downsize. It just doesn't scream reversal to me. It may move down but even the 5950 could give this big trouble. One might see if 1.6 holds and if not cut out, but overall I think I will wait to see for a bigger cleaner bar reaction personally. Let me know if that makes sense and of course just my view.

Welcome again and be sure to let me know if you need anything
  • #77,631
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:13pm Oct 17, 2010 7:13pm
watched the pin bar on friday. actually placed a trade today (sunday)

haven't moved stop yet
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  • #77,632
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:22pm Oct 17, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi Pin

I think it depends more on eur/usd & aud/usd situation.
E/U is just under 1.4000 area hanging on the daily trendline with A/U strongly rejected at 1.00 level. I dont think euro deserved such praise from speculators compared to current eurozone vs us situation and all the QE program could be
already priced in the market besides all the talk about dollar weakness is getting really mainstream.

Thanks for the fundamentals GH.
I don't generally pay much attention to these, I should perhaps and the correlation between pairs.

Still trying to get my head together with PA.
  • #77,633
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:28pm Oct 17, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting Adilius07
I completely agree with this Miha But imagine if you take only 10 trades a year. You spend 3 years and made 30 trades and a great profit... Then in next 3 years you lost all the money, no worries it happens you keep on trading the next 3 years and lost again... 9 years of your life just passed and you learned that your system only makes 30% win rate...you won 30 and you lost 60...

Of course this is an exaggerated example. But how else you can judge your performance? It is definately not the time, it is number of trades......

Wow........Adi. Sounds like you need to take a deep breath.
I know that feeling.

I really don't understand the importance of taking many trades.
The more we take, the more spread we pay and greater the exposure to the market of our equity. What is wrong with a few trades and within those trades the occasional runner, which may even be held for months?

Isn't that we should be aiming for?
  • #77,634
  • Oct 17, 2010 8:27pm Oct 17, 2010 8:27pm
still short on EU
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  • #77,635
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:07pm Oct 17, 2010 9:07pm
not sure this is done, but i got 80 pips anyway
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  • #77,636
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:13pm Oct 17, 2010 9:13pm
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting Adilius07
Can someone clarify about diverengence, please. Does it have to be on two consequitive lows (or highs) I saw this chart and was shocked - I thought that doesn't matter ( I looked at the extremes always with many small lows/highs in between...)

Is the following pic as the only way Div must be? Always consecutive lows/highs???

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1283241685
All I heard from Jim about Div is that in a trending market, Div will kill you real good and proper. On why and how he says that I have no idea. Hope some seniors can shed some light on that will be much appreciated. Better with some example charts.
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #77,637
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:17pm Oct 17, 2010 9:17pm
Quoting Jey
All I heard from Jim about Div is that in a trending market, Div will kill you real good and proper. On why and how he says that I have no idea. Hope some seniors can shed some light on that will be much appreciated. Better with some example charts.
Divergence is nothing more then when price is going one way and the oscillator is going the other way. It can be a heads up that momentum is fading one way or the other. If a trend is real strong you have to think it takes more to "reverse" or stall that trend. Thus divergence can not alone reverser a strong trend. This is why we use other confirming factors such as price bar analysis, support/resistance, and other things to make logical decisions. So don't try to pick tops and bottoms with divergence in a strong trending market, you will be out your lunch money quick. But using it as a heads up + the other tools and it is a great addition

Best
Mike
  • #77,638
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:28pm Oct 17, 2010 9:28pm
someone who took the EU 1hr pinbar short would need to hold for 856 pips to make the same $$$ i just did on 80 pips

thought id point that out for absolutely no reason at all
  • #77,639
  • Oct 17, 2010 10:00pm Oct 17, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting 4X=0
someone who took the EU 1hr pinbar short would need to hold for 856 pips to make the same $$$ i just did on 80 pips

thought id point that out for absolutely no reason at all

Why is that?

It all depends simply on what size of lot they traded, I can't see how it is relative to anything. If you took 80 pips in that trade, the person who took the H1 pb could still be in that trade and 200 pips profit.
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  • #77,640
  • Oct 17, 2010 10:11pm Oct 17, 2010 10:11pm
i was comparing the two trades, each risking the same amount of money.

and also, 200 is way less than the 800.

here is another way to look at it.

both accounts begin at $10,000 and 2% risk

trading the 1hr pin and taking 200 pips = 5.2%
trading the 1hr pin and taking 856 pips = 22%

my trade of 80 pips = 22%

not to mention im out of the trade.

800 pips would take weeks.
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