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Weekly Analysis For Majors / Open Discussion

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 22, 2010 2:26pm Oct 16, 2010 3:58pm | Edited Oct 22, 2010 2:26pm
Hi dear traders,

I hope your lifes will be on the path that leads you to where you want to be.

This thread is about weekly analysis on majors (I myself trade EUR/USD , GBP/USD , USD/JPY and EUR/JPY) and it's not a particular method. I always analyze the market at weekends to have a bias in mind about which way to trade, up or down. I use Supports and Resistances, Trends, Fibo, Bar analysis (James16 stuff) and other basic things like these, because I believe basics is the key. I don't believe in indicators that much and I use them very rare and just to CONFIRM my trades, not to SHOW me the way. I will put up my analysis and will talk about it through the week.

I've started this thread because I believed it's a good way to improve basic skill for new traders and discuss about what you see on that pair with experienced traders. You can use it directly to trade or it can help you which way to trade with your personal method.

If you're not familiar with basic concepts, try to learn it from somewhere else. I recommend BabyPips.com.

I've done this in other threads, but I think it will distract newbies from the main method that are discussed in mentioned thread, so I decided to take it somewhere else.

By "weekly analysis", I don't mean analysing just weekly timeframe, I mean I will have a analyze once in a week, at the start of that week to improve my profitability. (I usually use H4, Daily and weekly TFs)

I see many successful traders use these tools as a guide to enter or exit a trade. So it can be used individually.

I hope that it will be useful for both newbies and experts.

If you're trading and analysing with a bunch of indicators, please do not post here, because this thread is not about "an indicator that shows you the right way", it's about a hard ass way to understand what and why market moves, not some BS !

I myself trade waves (Sonic R. System) and bar analysis (James16 Group).

Any comments are welcomed ... Because the goal is to grow together ...

Let's see what it'll look like ...

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #2
  • Oct 16, 2010 4:12pm Oct 16, 2010 4:12pm
Let's see what we have here ...

Price was bullish in past month or so, but the last candle in weekly was an undecided candle (or bar!). When I move down to daily, I see a powerful outside bar that is totally bearish. Besides price closed below the round number 1.4000 (as a S&R) and RSI is still overbought. Also there is a divergence on H4 that confirms high pressure for bearish market. And as you can see, price broke it's strong trend and retested it. There was high activity of trading at highs which indicates high trading at swing high, that meant selling at the high by professionals.

Some of Supports and resistances areas are noted below that I would have them in mind while trading through the week.

In conclusion, I have a bearish bias in mind for the next incoming week. Let's see what will happen ... I expect a little retrace to round number or another swing high in shorter timeframes in the beginning of the week ... If it didn't happen, I will not be surprised.

P.S. : I must emphasize that these are all a simple analysis, and one who deeply understands that this business is about probablities, will have in mind that they could be wrong ... So don't trade blindly.

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #3
  • Oct 16, 2010 4:24pm Oct 16, 2010 4:24pm
Same as EU, GU starts to reveal some weaknesses in bullish move. As I drew on weekly TF, price hits a downtrend and the interesting part for me is the pinbar on daily TF. Again price closed below the round number 1.6000 (S&R) and it formed a double tops on H4. Divergence clearly confirms a bearish pressure on this pair.

Again, high trading activity at highs that indicates sell at the highs.

I'll have in mind the uptrend that I drew on daily TF if it drops.

There are some levels that I'll have my eyes on that I drew in H4 TF.

In conclusion, I'm seeking for good short positions through out this week.

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #4
  • Oct 16, 2010 4:39pm Oct 16, 2010 4:39pm
Price is at 19 year low and is oversold. It's strongly downtrend and it could reach new lows, but I believe it's a good place for a little retrace. I'm not biased clearly about this pair, but I would like long ones more ...

Also there is an inside bar formed on daily TF. And there is a double bottoms forming with divergence and high activity at the low.

In conclusion, I will prefer long positions ...

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #5
  • Oct 16, 2010 5:49pm Oct 16, 2010 5:49pm
Thanks for your effort
I'm not a programmer and i don't like ! , but only I try to catch my view !
  • #6
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:39am Oct 17, 2010 5:39am
Price stalled at a major resistance and now it's turning downwards. Now price is at a resistance at H4, I'll wait until it breaks this resistance then I'll look for short trades.

For me EU & GU are better pairs to trade for this week.

Let's see what will happen through the week ... These are all speculation, anything could happen ...

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #7
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:11am Oct 17, 2010 6:11am
Hello dear,
Nice thread.
I will follow your trade, week by week.
Please post your weekly chart.
  • #8
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:08am Oct 17, 2010 7:08am
You and I have similar methods and outlook. I will follow with interest. One question. How are you determining the level of activity at swing highs or lows?
  • #9
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:31am Oct 17, 2010 7:31am
Quoting dargane
You and I have similar methods and outlook. I will follow with interest. One question. How are you determining the level of activity at swing highs or lows?
I use NVO (Normalized Volume Oscillator) which it's feed is metatrader's basic volume bars (It can appear with CTRL + L). When it rises and price is at it's swing high, then it came down and volume starts to decrease, it shows me that there is selling at the highs. Again, it's speculation, anything could happen.

I somehow believe in this indicator because it's the only indicator that's independent from where price is and what price do. It's focusing on panics and exitments. So I use it more often. In metatrader, it shows you trade counts, not trade sizes, but you can relate these directly.

Anyway, I've attached this indicator and here's how to read it ...

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 17 15.57.jpg Size: 126 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Normalized_Volume_Oscillator.ex4   4 KB | 431 downloads
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #10
  • Oct 17, 2010 8:39am Oct 17, 2010 8:39am
I like to read fundamentals and trade longer time frames.. your analysis suits my trading style.. thanks for posting your insights.
  • #11
  • Oct 17, 2010 12:15pm Oct 17, 2010 12:15pm
The Normalized Volume Oscillator looks interesting. I'll have to check it out. I typically use the Better Volume Indicator focusing on Climax Volume Bars and High Churn Bars.

Looking forward to following your thread.


Quoting Basber
I use NVO (Normalized Volume Oscillator) which it's feed is metatrader's basic volume bars (It can appear with CTRL + L). When it rises and price is at it's swing high, then it came down and volume starts to decrease, it shows me that there is selling at the highs. Again, it's speculation, anything could happen.

I somehow believe in this indicator because it's the only indicator that's independent from where price is and what price do. It's focusing on panics and exitments. So I use it more often. In metatrader, it shows you trade counts, not...
  • #12
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:13pm Oct 22, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting Basber
Let's see what we have here ...

Price was bullish in past month or so, but the last candle in weekly was an undecided candle (or bar!). When I move down to daily, I see a powerful outside bar that is totally bearish. Besides price closed below the round number 1.4000 (as a S&R) and RSI is still overbought. Also there is a divergence on H4 that confirms high pressure for bearish market. And as you can see, price broke it's strong trend and retested it. There was high activity of trading at highs which indicates high trading at swing high, that...
Two good leg down, the better one was after the retrace that I'd expected. I didn't took long moves because I was expecting short trades.

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 25 KB
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:22pm Oct 22, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting Basber
Same as EU, GU starts to reveal some weaknesses in bullish move. As I drew on weekly TF, price hits a downtrend and the interesting part for me is the pinbar on daily TF. Again price closed below the round number 1.6000 (S&R) and it formed a double tops on H4. Divergence clearly confirms a bearish pressure on this pair.

Again, high trading activity at highs that indicates sell at the highs.

I'll have in mind the uptrend that I drew on daily TF if it drops.

There are some levels that I'll have my eyes on that I drew in H4 TF.

In conclusion,...
Three very powerful leg down. best short opportunities among other pairs. It paid me much ...

P.S. : by those arrows, I don't mean I took the entire bearish move. I got part of those moves. And the posts that I sent was "which way I want to trade" this week. You can see "weekly" charts too to see that what I've posted was useful (We had a bearish weekly candle, that means "selling" would've paid!)

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 25 KB
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #14
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:06pm Oct 22, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Basber
Price is at 19 year low and is oversold. It's strongly downtrend and it could reach new lows, but I believe it's a good place for a little retrace. I'm not biased clearly about this pair, but I would like long ones more ...

Also there is an inside bar formed on daily TF. And there is a double bottoms forming with divergence and high activity at the low.

In conclusion, I will prefer long positions ...

Regards,
Basber
Price stalled on it's 19 year low, but few good long opportunities revealed previous week that could made bulls some money ...

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 26 KB
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #15
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:32pm Oct 22, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting Basber
Price stalled at a major resistance and now it's turning downwards. Now price is at a resistance at H4, I'll wait until it breaks this resistance then I'll look for short trades.

For me EU & GU are better pairs to trade for this week.

Let's see what will happen through the week ... These are all speculation, anything could happen ...

Regards,
Basber
Two big moves down, as it was expected. But I didn't trade those ...

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 25 KB
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16
  • Oct 23, 2010 4:04am Oct 23, 2010 4:04am
What is your prediction for EUro next week?
  • #17
  • Last Post: Oct 23, 2010 2:13pm Oct 23, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting Basber
Price stalled on it's 19 year low, but few good long opportunities revealed previous week that could made bulls some money ...

Regards,
Basber
Hi, Basber. I guess it just goes to prove that whether the longer trend is up or down really makes no difference when it comes to finding trades in either direction on shorter TFs.

The attached Weekly chart shows the results of the Bush/Greenspan/Paulson era and now the Obama/Bernacke/Geithner era....for over three years (and all the while them saying they were "for" a strong dollar) US policies continued to devalue the dollar.....OVER THREE YEARS! And yet throughout this time there surely were good long trading opportunities. Right?

Trading only with the trend can save ones ass, however, if one does so and PA suddenly moves far and fast against them, Just batten down the hatches and wait out the storm. Pa will come back and more for profit.

Speaking of trends, we can't know when this one will end. Highlights of the Friday/Saturday G20 sound good (..cease competitiive "devaluations"..., yeah right). But there is a lot of slip between cup and lip, and all that buffoon speak could take a long, long time to see any action; and even a lot longer for any effects.

Bottom line? There will always be trading opportunities in both directions.

Helpful thread you have started here, Basber. Congratulations!
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