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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,401
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:40am Oct 15, 2010 10:40am
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  • #8,402
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:06am Oct 15, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Custos
here is a short I just took. cad/jpy h4
Low risk entry in my opinion in conjunction with the long-term trend.
works out well.

for me, needs a bpc on h1 or h4 or d1 below those red lines to enter.
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  • #8,403
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:23am Oct 15, 2010 11:23am
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also long kiwi @ 0.75612




Red
  • #8,404
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:47am Oct 15, 2010 11:47am
Quoting Mortician.
works out well.

for me, needs a bpc on h1 or h4 or d1 below those red lines to enter.
yes, I agree, it's much safer waiting for a break of those red lines. That's also where I am gonna go in with bigger lot-size.
  • #8,405
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:49am Oct 15, 2010 11:49am
two new trades:
eur/jpy h1: that is just a flip of an S/R level in direction of the trend, so let's see how it works out.

eur/gbp m15: confluence of S/R level, several trendlines and a fib.

wish me luck
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  • #8,406
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:53am Oct 15, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Custos
two new trades:
eur/jpy h1: that is just a flip of an S/R level in direction of the trend, so let's see how it works out.

eur/gbp m15: confluence of S/R level, several trendlines and a fib.

wish me luck
actually forget eur/jpy, I revised the line, we are still above the S/R level.
  • #8,407
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:02pm Oct 15, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting redsword11
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also long kiwi @ 0.75612




Red


scalped to dtl
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  • #8,408
  • Oct 15, 2010 2:14pm Oct 15, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Custos
actually forget eur/jpy, I revised the line, we are still above the S/R level.
yeah, i was looking at this:
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  • #8,409
  • Oct 15, 2010 3:00pm Oct 15, 2010 3:00pm
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Red
  • #8,410
  • Oct 15, 2010 3:03pm Oct 15, 2010 3:03pm
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will get it south next week if level holds
  • #8,411
  • Oct 15, 2010 3:44pm Oct 15, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting redsword11
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Red


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closed most of it @ BE




Red
  • #8,412
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:23pm Oct 15, 2010 7:23pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment




Red
Hahaha sounds like the old west....Scalping North....

Did it work??

--NM
  • #8,413
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:41am Oct 16, 2010 7:41am
After watching Mortician and Custos drawing weekly/ daily charts it comes to me that all those trend lines and important s/r areas serves actually as price magnets. Price when trending in that direction obviously moving towards one of those targets where it can either break through or reverse.


It looks like this trend line on weekly attracts current Eur/ USD uptrend.
Another interesting point is that despite what fundamental guys speak about dollar meltdown, on weekly at least dollar actually is in uptrend unless that trend line gets broken to the upside.
There fore, if this is correct we can see EU reach to 1.4300-1.4500.

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  • #8,414
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:02am Oct 16, 2010 8:02am
NightMoves, btw, did you take that long EU trade after pbc? it happened at night Eur session. Momentum was there and I guess it would be safe bet anyway as we could lock some pips and move stop to BE before Dollar news. and then who knows.
  • #8,415
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:07am Oct 16, 2010 8:07am
Quoting shiko
After watching Mortician and Custos drawing weekly/ daily charts it comes to me that all those trend lines and important s/r areas serves actually as price magnets. Price when trending in that direction obviously moving towards one of those targets where it can either break through or reverse.


It looks like this trend line on weekly attracts current Eur/ USD uptrend.
Another interesting point is that despite what fundamental guys speak about dollar meltdown, on weekly at least dollar actually is in uptrend unless that trend line gets broken...
yeah, you are right, they are price magnets. Now what is the major problem? There are a couple of those price magnets on each chart, so which one will be the strongest that actually pulls price? I see it a bit like a moving ping-pong.
And yes, I also think that price will go to that weekly trendline and then depending on the fundamental data, break through it or reverse from there.

And concerning fundamental guys:
The following is just my belief: they are almost always wrong. Most of the time, cnbc or whatever channel will just interview the guy who actually forcasted exactly that event, doesn't mean he was right the last 99 times.
If I were to listen to anybody concerning fundamentals, it should be warren buffett or george soros. Most other guys, on TV, in blogs or whatever talking about fundamentals do probably not make money with their forecasts, otherwise they wouldn't need to be on TV, in blogs and so on in the first place. Analysts are normally analysts, because they are bad investors or traders, otherwise they probably wouldn't bother with giving interviews.

Again, just my belief, you may of course disagree with me

cheers
  • #8,416
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:46am Oct 16, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Custos
yeah, you are right, they are price magnets. Now what is the major problem? There are a couple of those price magnets on each chart, so which one will be the strongest that actually pulls price? I see it a bit like a moving ping-pong.
And yes, I also think that price will go to that weekly trendline and then depending on the fundamental data, break through it or reverse from there.

And concerning fundamental guys:
The following is just my belief: they are almost always wrong. Most of the time, cnbc or whatever channel will just interview the guy...

Custos, you are probably looking for someone to disagree , but in this case I agree with you completely.
I believe that whatever fundamentals exist they are already on long term weekly/ monthly charts.
I really want to jump on one of these band wagons going hundred pips, hence only close half position now and let the rest run. Let's see how this will go.
Good that EU did not run away. Lows of swings are getting higher, 3 MAs are in order on 4H chart, so, I will enter on the next pbc in proper liquid time if nothing changes to the worse.
  • #8,417
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:01am Oct 16, 2010 9:01am
Quoting shiko
Custos, you are probably looking for someone to disagree , but in this case I agree with you completely.
I believe that whatever fundamentals exist they are already on long term weekly/ monthly charts.
I really want to jump on one of these band wagons going hundred pips, hence only close half position now and let the rest run. Let's see how this will go.
Good that EU did not run away. Lows of swings are getting higher, 3 MAs are in order on 4H chart, so, I will enter on the next pbc in proper liquid time if nothing changes to the worse.
yep, I think EU will be in a long uptrend from now on. As we heard, USA lost jobs again this or last month and it's hard to jump-start economy, whereas germany already has above 3% growth this year and will probably have a really low unemployment rate soon. As for the other EU countries, I don't know, but as long as they don't collapse, the euro should go up up up.

(This is a very very simplified opinion from an economic amateur)
  • #8,418
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:52pm Oct 16, 2010 12:52pm
True, analysts are mostly wrong.
In my humble opinion, this is how i use fundamentals: I like to read actual fundamental data and also analysts views, especially, aggregate analyts views. There are three websites i go for this. It psychologically help me to hold on to long term positions. By reading the fundamental trend of AUD and NZD(BOTH the actual data and aggregrate analysts views), it reinforces my beleifs in LONG aud, nzd; e.g. this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...kk#post4019299
by following the trend of unemployment news in the US and contrasting it with EUR debt issues(greece, spain, ireland, etc), it helps me in holding on to short USD, LONG EUR positions. Of course, i dont take any positions unless technical says so. But i enjoy fundamental reinforcement of my technical position for long term trend trading--which is what i am about.

If you ask me a precise question of whether EUR is undervalued to the SGD, or if AUD/USD is overpriced at parity(1.0000)? I cant answer those kinds of question for the life of me. I can only say that given a solid uptrend in fundamental data, this currency is bullish or that currency is bearish, and will continue to be so, if those data holds for the near future. Essentially, i am only comfortable with fundamental trend prediction(more like suggestion, rather than prediction) when a nice, solid fundamental trend(as in the case of aud, nzd, eur, sgd) has been establish with repeated realms of data pointing mainly in one direction. Essentially, a fundamental trend trading. I dont engage in fundamental forecasting or anticipation--that will be to me a version of using technical analysis to predict top and bottom. Neither am i that smart, nor brave. Flow with the river, trade with the trend.
  • #8,419
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:30pm Oct 16, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Custos
hm, I think trailing is counter-productive and here is why. Cause you never know how deep the next retracement might be. If you were to trail, then yes I would do it very very loosely, otherwise you will soon be shaken out by some retracements. What you want is to use the long-term trend in your favor.
I have come to realize that the long-term trend is actually the biggest edge we have, so we should maximize our participation in it. We have to think more like investors, than just traders, and here we would invest in the long-term trend of a currency...

Again, i have to agree with the man, shiko. I think the latin guardian is right. just my imho.
I will add this much: if you are really interested in retracements, 38 to 61 fib tends to occur a lot(since you are smart, you can already see the problem with that, dont you?). Then, there is the issue of timeframes. A good example of the retracement within retracements that happen;
On USD/SGD there was the H4 retracement, the daily retracements, and the weekly retracements. check usd/sgd charts starting from 25th of july.

In the link below, you can see how the trades developed...along with the retracements starting from short at 1.3697, the SL was -20pips. USD/SGD is now at 1.2954 that is +700 pips.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...gd#post3897070

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...97&postcount=9

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=11

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=35 (scroll below to see the USD/SGD)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=36

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=37

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=41


After this, there were subsequent pyramiding later(with some BE's trades inbetween)all i was just too bored to write about.

In retrospect, there are things i did in this trade that i think were a bit amateurish....i will touch on that later.....
  • #8,420
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:36pm Oct 16, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting Custos
yep, I think EU will be in a long uptrend from now on. As we heard, USA lost jobs again this or last month and it's hard to jump-start economy, whereas germany already has above 3% growth this year and will probably have a really low unemployment rate soon. As for the other EU countries, I don't know, but as long as they don't collapse, the euro should go up up up.

(This is a very very simplified opinion from an economic amateur)

Yeah it looks like EU is just not wanting to go down., Price action says it is moving up as bears fail to bring it lower with each impulse up. I will be interesting to watch Sunday price action. I trade also on Oanda account and it is opens 2-3 hours before MT4. Technically speaking it is hard to trade on Sunday/ Monday if there is a gap on MT4. It kinda messes everything on trigger chart and Oanda inherently has these gaps which you always can see.
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