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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,361
  • Oct 14, 2010 5:33am Oct 14, 2010 5:33am
Quoting shiko
also stop too small can be hit just by noise. I remember trying trading with small stops like 10-20 pips. Aitions were killed despite of choosing right direction. I think stop should be set according to each pair ATR.
One pair say 30 is a good stop, another is 50. I usually set stop 10-15 pips above the top of pull back.
well, good idea with the ATR, but which time-frame do you mean? ATR is different on each time-frame, and how many periods? 10 period, 100 period, 1000 period ATR?
I still think the best for hector setups is to put the stop behind the event that got you in (behind the bpc).

Also just my opinion.
  • #8,362
  • Oct 14, 2010 5:38am Oct 14, 2010 5:38am
Quoting aman4forex
now I am looking for short term retracement have a look at this chart


happy pipping
hm, don't know about your profitability, but I never could make retracement trading work for me. Over the long-term, you better stick to trading the impulse moves.
One doesn't need to profit from every single move up or down. Just get the trend right and trade WITH it, NOT AGAINST it.
  • #8,363
  • Oct 14, 2010 5:40am Oct 14, 2010 5:40am
Quoting redsword11
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closed it
  • #8,364
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:05am Oct 14, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Custos
well, maybe you could try just letting the position run. Then you will find that a 1:3 R:R is quite small. If you shoot for 1:10 or 1:100, you have much less stress in trading. But that is just my opinion.

I completely agree. But it is not an easy thing to do. I am moving slowly.
Also, not always there will be opportunity to have 1:10 risk reward ratio. It is only when some serious levels are broken.
I wonder, aren't you taking partial profits along the way when certain targets are reached or you let the whole position run?
  • #8,365
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:07am Oct 14, 2010 7:07am
What I want to do, is to secure small profit closing half position at same number of pips I am risking and let the rest run. I guess it is always better to be safe. Then once stop at BE and I have some $, let the rest run.
I am very concerned with trade management now as I see it is the key to really making it.
  • #8,366
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:17am Oct 14, 2010 7:17am
Quoting shiko
I completely agree. But it is not an easy thing to do. I am moving slowly.
Also, not always there will be opportunity to have 1:10 risk reward ratio. It is only when some serious levels are broken.
I wonder, aren't you taking partial profits along the way when certain targets are reached or you let the whole position run?
hi,

I don't use targets anymore. However, if my margin gets used up, I will close out some of my long-term positions in order to be able to enter new positions, but I will never take a partial just because I get towards an S/R level. More often than not the long-term trend will breach that S/R level.
But in general I am shooting for 1,000 to 10,000 pips, which should be at least an R:R of 1:100.

hm, also how do you know in advance that this or that trade will not be an opportunity for at least 1:10? The only thing we know in advance is the risk we take. Everything else are just assumptions. And if you trade with the long-term trend you will find a lot of trades that go much further than what you thought they will go to in the beginning.

Again just my opinion.
  • #8,367
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:26am Oct 14, 2010 7:26am
Quoting shiko
What I want to do, is to secure small profit closing half position at same number of pips I am risking and let the rest run. I guess it is always better to be safe. Then once stop at BE and I have some $, let the rest run.
I am very concerned with trade management now as I see it is the key to really making it.
nothing wrong with that, just make sure you really let it run. Letting a trade run for a hundred pips or so is not even close to what you could achieve.
  • #8,368
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:36am Oct 14, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Custos
hi,

I don't use targets anymore. However, if my margin gets used up, I will close out some of my long-term positions in order to be able to enter new positions, but I will never take a partial just because I get towards an S/R level. More often than not the long-term trend will breach that S/R level.
But in general I am shooting for 1,000 to 10,000 pips, which should be at least an R:R of 1:100.

hm, also how do you know in advance that this or that trade will not be an opportunity for at least 1:10? The only thing we know in advance is the risk...

The man is right.

To put it another way: it is not over, until it is over( or the fat lady sings....)
  • #8,369
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:49am Oct 14, 2010 7:49am
Here is my experience:

What usually stop or reverse or indicate reversal of currency trends are:

S/R LEVELS(especially, fundamental coupled s/r levels{more on that latter})
Measured Move projection or Pattern projection
FIB levels 38 to 61
Retracement or swing highs/lows
Trendlines/Channels lines
RN levels
1, 2, 3 patterns on higher time frames(almost all reversals have this 1,2,3 formation on h4, daily, weekly or monthly chart. Do a quick check on your pairs or crosses to confirm this).
New, serious fundamental info.

YES, 7 out of these 8 are also technical entry parameters, especially when they confluence. Entry parameters are in a way, exit parameters; and vice versa.

MOST IMPORTANTLY: Let that baby run, run wild.

EVEN MORE IMPORTANT: PATIENCE.

I think the best methods will give you this: small losses, lots of BREAKEVENS, and a some outstanding wins.

I really have nothing much else to add to the subject.
  • #8,370
  • Oct 14, 2010 7:58am Oct 14, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Custos
nothing wrong with that, just make sure you really let it run. Letting a trade run for a hundred pips or so is not even close to what you could achieve.

Yes, Custos, after reading this and multiped thread I know this
I think E/U and G/U breakouts if they happen might provide one of those opportunities.
I think sooner or later if I do let them run and leave them some will run.
  • #8,371
  • Oct 14, 2010 8:09am Oct 14, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Mortician.
Here is my experience:

What usually stop or reverse or indicate reversal of currency trends are:

S/R LEVELS(especially, fundamental coupled s/r levels{more on that latter})
Measured Move projection or Pattern projection
FIB levels 38 to 61
Retracement or swing highs/lows
Trendlines/Channels lines
RN levels
1, 2, 3 patterns on higher time frames(almost all reversals have this 1,2,3 formation on h4, daily, weekly or monthly chart. Do a quick check on your pairs or crosses to confirm this).
New, serious fundamental info.

YES, 7 out of these...

Thank you for great advise. i think it is more than enough.
I am planning to close half of my position at certain target and will leave the rest running. all entries according to NightMoves method on at least 4H set up or higher.
  • #8,372
  • Edited 8:34am Oct 14, 2010 8:23am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting shiko
Thank you for great advise. i think it is more than enough.
I am planning to close half of my position at certain target and will leave the rest running. all entries according to NightMoves method on at least 4H set up or higher.
Best of luck. In my humble opinion, trying to predict where price will stop is the same as trying to engage in pinpoint entry trades. It is difficult.

All the things that i listed generally stops price, a confluence of some of them will stop your price at one point or the other. That is almost a given. that is the easy part. it is nice in theory. the hard part(and useful part is this: confluence of which ones will it be? )

Note that i didnt include moving averages, crossover or otherwise.

ADR is useful too, but from my experience, confluence of some of those 7 technical things, will stop it. ADR or no ADR.

ADDENDUM: THIS Is also why i really enjoy daily or weekly breakouts: because then you have one of those, it is usually freefall. the coast is clear. There are less technical entanglements.....
  • #8,373
  • Oct 14, 2010 10:50am Oct 14, 2010 10:50am
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  • #8,374
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:12pm Oct 14, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Mortician.
Best of luck. In my humble opinion, trying to predict where price will stop is the same as trying to engage in pinpoint entry trades. It is difficult.

All the things that i listed generally stops price, a confluence of some of them will stop your price at one point or the other. That is almost a given. that is the easy part. it is nice in theory....


Yes, I know this. I only wonder, how in this case people trail their price. there must be some kind of trailing. I guess trailing must be pretty lose to let price breath. May be 200-300 pips behind. Or may be to keep it under MA10 or MA 100. It sounds logical.
  • #8,375
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:30pm Oct 14, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting redsword11
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good reaction, waiting for small dip for long entry
  • #8,376
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:36pm Oct 14, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting redsword11
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good reaction, waiting for small dip for long entry

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  • #8,377
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:52pm Oct 14, 2010 2:52pm
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en short


kiwi long
  • #8,378
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:39pm Oct 14, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting shiko
Yes, I know this. I only wonder, how in this case people trail their price. there must be some kind of trailing. I guess trailing must be pretty lose to let price breath. May be 200-300 pips behind. Or may be to keep it under MA10 or MA 100. It sounds logical.
hm, I think trailing is counter-productive and here is why. Cause you never know how deep the next retracement might be. If you were to trail, then yes I would do it very very loosely, otherwise you will soon be shaken out by some retracements. What you want is to use the long-term trend in your favor.
I have come to realize that the long-term trend is actually the biggest edge we have, so we should maximize our participation in it. We have to think more like investors, than just traders, and here we would invest in the long-term trend of a currency pair until we believe the direction has changed.
The initial entry should be low risk, put stop to b/e, but after that I would just let the natural flow of the market decide the fate of this particular trade.

Well, anyways, just my opinion for now. Feel free to discuss and rip my arguments apart . Very interesting topic
  • #8,379
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:40pm Oct 14, 2010 3:40pm
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  • #8,380
  • Oct 14, 2010 3:44pm Oct 14, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting redsword11
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why were you buying so late in this setup?
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