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AUD/USD

  • #24,301
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:57pm Oct 13, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting lasty
This article speaks for itself..
http://www.news.com.au/business/oil-...-1225936903076

Its going gangbusters..

As for the currency.. when you have interest rate differentials of 4.25% Aussies favour why park it elsewhere.
Its going up and those who talk of overvaluation arent seeing the big picture..

$2,000 a day?!? One word: Bubble.

But I'm not going to go against the trend
  • #24,302
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:57pm Oct 13, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Looks like the Aussies are making the same mistakes that the American's have made over many years... no one learns and history will repeat itself. That will be a bust industry in AUS eventually.
The big picture is this...
Asian economies are growing.. they need our resources and no doubt food which will be our next major export..

Im sure the Australian economy will make mistakes but they also need to use the income and build infrastucture.. redirect water etc..

The next few decades will be prosperous whilst India, China and the rest of Asia grow.. Once the tap is turned off then Yes we may have caught th American disease. Make hay while the sunshines.
  • #24,303
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:03pm Oct 13, 2010 7:03pm
Dont you love good news?
  • #24,304
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:14pm Oct 13, 2010 7:14pm
Hands up anyone who thinks AUD will get to around 1.20
  • #24,305
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:15pm Oct 13, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting Peter-FX
AUDUSD
What’s your take on parity?
This month?
Next month?
Or next year?
AUD is moving, maybe today!
  • #24,306
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:17pm Oct 13, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting the-game
Hands up anyone who thinks AUD will get to around 1.20
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_17_11.gif
I doubt it.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #24,307
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:21pm Oct 13, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting the-game
Hands up anyone who thinks AUD will get to around 1.20
That would be a big deal, great for tourists but not most businesses! Be pretty stunned if it happend but who the hell knows?

Anyway, got my 50 pips this morning so Im happy :-)
  • #24,308
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:24pm Oct 13, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting the-game
Hands up anyone who thinks AUD will get to around 1.20
timeframe?
  • #24,309
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:32pm Oct 13, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting Eulogy
timeframe?
Dont see why not..
have a guy who is calling for 1.82 euro in the next 3 years..

pre float AU was 1.55
Those who say AUD is overvalued are a bit niave..
  • #24,310
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:49pm Oct 13, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting lasty
Dont see why not..
have a guy who is calling for 1.82 euro in the next 3 years..

pre float AU was 1.55
Those who say AUD is overvalued are a bit niave..
I was just asking for a timeframe for your 1.20 call

as for your other points
ECB will voice alotta opposition to such a rise in 3 years time. Can't say much more about this, but your argument about the AUDUSD 1.55 is fundamentally flawed because back then every participant in the cross was operating on a pegged currency system backed by Bretton wood.
  • #24,311
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:52pm Oct 13, 2010 7:52pm
Most terms such as overvalued, oversold, overbought,etc., are only used by those of us who are on the wrong side of a trade.
  • #24,312
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:04pm Oct 13, 2010 8:04pm
All aboard the long boat, huh?? Well you know what happens when the boat gets too full...
  • #24,313
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:11pm Oct 13, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting Subdude
All aboard the long boat, huh?? Well you know what happens when the boat gets too full...
I dont think that many are on it..
It seems to be medium term money shifting but as for the day to day punters.. I think they have missed it along with the exporters here..

Lets see what Europe does.. they love the stuff.. It maybe the day that they hate it ;-)

Also the US dollar index got punctured.. Tech heads will love this stuff..
  • #24,314
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:18pm Oct 13, 2010 8:18pm
The big question is..will we have deflation or inflation in the near future.

IF inflation continues.. commodity currencies will continue to rise. AUD has been a mirror of Gold since August. Chairman Bernanke says that USA inflation is not high enough.. So, if we take what he is saying word for word..we could expect a higher AUD and CAD in the future. The Fed is the biggest mover in the market right now..The USD index projection move off the head and shoulder pattern has not completed its downward move imho.. it has not reached support yet at 75.0.. The market is now manipulated by the Fed, Australia 4.5% interest rate is the best among the major currencies.

It would be interesting to see what will happen with AUD once it reach parity. I prefer long for now...but correction is overdue. Long term move is up imho..depends on what the Fed decides to do after USA elections. What u guys think?
  • #24,315
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:52pm Oct 13, 2010 8:52pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
I am amazed how many people who have been calling tops and shorts here (and the EUR & GBP forums) in the last two weeks. Posting charts, explaining fundamentals, always fighting the trend. I'm still laughing about how one senior member told me last Tuesday week how that day when the rally started (Tuesday), that if I had some experience I would know that this was only a pull back. Wow.....a pullback that intiated a rally of some 500 pips to historic highs! During this whole time the price has rallied hard, almost without a breath, regardless of news.

Now that the price is high and parity is sight, all of these same guru's are calling riduclous longs, like 1.05 soon, or 1.2.. Hell, you might as well call 1.8 by next month. Now that their attitude has changed, I wonder what will happen to the price?

Remember, 95% of traders LOSE..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,316
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:56pm Oct 13, 2010 8:56pm
I'm just relaying someone's opinion of the AUD.

I'm not sure how much cred they have with trading, because this person's full-time work is logistics.
  • #24,317
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:57pm Oct 13, 2010 8:57pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting TheTopBloke
Not that I disagree with you, because everything I've seen tells me the same, but to clarify, you sure you aren't being biased, for example your in a town or city that's doing shit, whereas some other town or city is the new mining town they're producing in?

Reminds me, might have lots of miners on this housing subsidy ride getting bitten if their home values drop to a point they decide to abandon their mortgages like the Americans have.
No, not biased. My work causes me travel to most towns (and one city ) in W.A.. The story is all the same. Mining will take off again, but this time the scene has changed, as per my previous post. I have my doubts that it will boom like it recently did. There are still massive amounts of people who were laid off during the GFC that are still unemployed (mostly contractors).

Housing in mining towns should take off, only because things have slowed down in the city so builders are going to the regional jobs that were placed on the backburner several years ago.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,318
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:20pm Oct 13, 2010 9:20pm
Quoting damo
No, not biased. My work causes me travel to most towns (and one city ) in W.A.. The story is all the same. Mining will take off again, but this time the scene has changed, as per my previous post. I have my doubts that it will boom like it recently did. There are still massive amounts of people who were laid off during the GFC that are still unemployed (mostly contractors).

Housing in mining towns should take off, only because things have slowed down in the city so builders are going to the regional jobs that were placed on the backburner several...
Barrier option at 9980.. expires at 5pm.. until then everyone seems to leaning on the barrier.. and like we had them a couple of bigs figs below last time.. they all leaned against the barrier and what happened.. the barrier collapsed..
  • #24,319
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:28pm Oct 13, 2010 9:28pm
Over at CNBC, the anchor lady said she was invited to a "Parity Party" to be held within a few hours as of this writing.
  • #24,320
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:35pm Oct 13, 2010 9:35pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting lasty
Barrier option at 9980.. expires at 5pm.. until then everyone seems to leaning on the barrier.. and like we had them a couple of bigs figs below last time.. they all leaned against the barrier and what happened.. the barrier collapsed..

If I remember correclty, the prices retraced (nearly 50%), creating a buying opportunity and the price never looked back?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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