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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #77,341
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:49am Oct 13, 2010 7:49am
Quoting mbqb11
I don't check those markets except for fun. I would just say make sure you are trading more liquid stocks, Joel made a post about what he looks at I believe in here. Or some general rules for equities. Check his post history may have been 3-4 weeks back

Best
Mike
Oh ok , thanks!! Will look for his posts right now.
  • #77,342
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:50am Oct 13, 2010 7:50am
Quoting uBERpIP
Here is a perfect example of probably getting lucky while 'analyzing' PA and confluence.

I've seen a few posts recently regarding going long on EUR/CAD.

I've been looking at EUR/CAD from maybe a longer time frame perspective.

While it's been in a fairly strong uptrend since bottoming out in June, I was seeing this as a retracement from it's December highs.

Reaching the 50% Fib level, bumping off the 365 EMA and having been rejected by the BRN of 143, I decided to look for a short.

I took the break of the 2 day pin bar off my OANDA...
Quoting jarroo
I don't think you where lucky at all, uBer.

I think your thought process was dead on, right.

Your analysis seems to be vindicated. uBERpip . .

Once you see this happen over and over and over again, you'll begin to trust it more.

No luck here . .good analysis.

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,343
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:53am Oct 13, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Pinbar
Here I am experimenting again with something Jarroo mentioned about "One day, you will learn to love consolidation".

I took the Monthly chart and boxed the main consolidation areas, then put a line above and below them. I also did this on the weekly, then removed all the boxes. Look what we get on the daily.
Very nice Pb . . .an excellent exercise . . one that I learned from James16 and Mike . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,344
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:02am Oct 13, 2010 8:02am
Quoting jarroo
Your analysis seems to be vindicated. uBERpip . .

Once you see this happen over and over and over again, you'll begin to trust it more.

No luck here . .good analysis.

Jim
Hi Jarroo,

Ive got my RSI at 14 which is the default, ive seen u have it at 6, does make it any difference looking for div ?

Thx
Trade Smart
  • #77,345
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:02am Oct 13, 2010 8:02am
Quoting jarroo
Something to watch . .

I forgot to give the other side of the equation . . Support turning into Resistance . .

We are not surprised . . .are we? . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,346
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:04am Oct 13, 2010 8:04am
Quoting squeezy
I believe this is one of Rac's
ppz + 50fib + tl confluence
a smallish looking pin on the 30mins tf

Absolutely. . .nice .. KaBoom

With some Mike mixed in.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,347
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:07am Oct 13, 2010 8:07am
Quoting xmzhang
Just triggered a sell on the G-J, PB just closed below BRN @ 13000. Confluence via fib (not drawn) and 4H-TL. Entry on lower TF via a PA at pullback.

Nice one xmz.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,348
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:12am Oct 13, 2010 8:12am
Quoting smikester
Jarroo asked a question about the weekly pin bar. Here might be an opportunity to check it out at low risk:

Attachment

Freaking awesome smikester . . Higher time frame confluences . .rules.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,349
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:31am Oct 13, 2010 8:31am
Quoting Osman
Hi Jarroo,

Ive got my RSI at 14 which is the default, ive seen u have it at 6, does make it any difference looking for div ?

Thx

Looks the same, Osman. The 6 shift is a bit more exaggerated.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #77,350
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:49am Oct 13, 2010 8:49am
Quoting jarroo
Looks the same, Osman. The 6 shift is a bit more exaggerated.
Yeah that's what i saw, ill move it to 6 as its better to spot for div.

Thanks !
Trade Smart
  • #77,351
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:41am Oct 13, 2010 9:41am
Hi all,

As usual great thread

Can I kindly ask you what do you think of the following two trades.
Please go easy on me

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/2194/99241140.th.png

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7569/62518728.th.png
  • #77,352
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:59am Oct 13, 2010 9:59am
would you take this BOVB on GBPUSD? a countinuation of a bounce from 150 MA.
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  • #77,353
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:18am Oct 13, 2010 10:18am
Quoting lallous
...
Can I kindly ask you what do you think of the following two trades.
Please go easy on me
...
Hey lallous, those are the worst trades ever... (Just kidding).

The A/U trade was not a pin bar technically speaking. The high of the bar is higher than the prior bar high. It is also going into resistance. Let's say you took it as a BUOB with a weak close (Hi Albatross), then you have to consider the resistance. You better be ready for price to reject hard off this level. In this case it didn't, but you really should take these at swing lows so it hardly becomes an issue. Great observation with the fact it bounced off a ppz and other confluences. If you're still in this trade, then the .9900 level would be a good place to hide your stop.

The E/U trade didn't really have a J16 setup unless you go to the 2 hour chart (see attached), in which case it's a pin bar at a swing high. Very similar logic should be followed as the A/U trade. Ideally, we want to be taking these bars at swing lows so the odds of price getting rejected at these levels is reduced. It's not that these setups don't work, just that they are trickier to manage and can do serious damage to your account.

Hope this helps,

-- Danny
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  • #77,354
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:27am Oct 13, 2010 10:27am
Quoting jarroo
Your analysis seems to be vindicated. uBERpip . .

Once you see this happen over and over and over again, you'll begin to trust it more.

No luck here . .good analysis.

Jim
Thanks for the feedback!

With not a lot of screen time behind me, it's amazing how the 2nd guessing just eats at you as long as you keep watching the market after putting on a trade.

Although I exited this position profitable, I still completely broke the pre-trade rules I made. Since I am on demo, I told myself I was going to look for my opportunity, set the SL and then leave the trade alone. Risking 1% is good MM, so I should only be trading an opportunity where I am convinced losing that 1% is worth the opportunity that I see ahead of me.

So what did I do? I placed the trade with a SL 10 pips above the 2 day pin bar, and then micro managed the trade at every hiccup along the way.

LOL.....should have just turned off the computer, walked away and come back after close of daily candle.

Baby steps.....baby steps.....
  • #77,355
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:28am Oct 13, 2010 10:28am
PB bounce off 114.00 - signal continuation from bounce off 150 MA?

feel free to comment.
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  • #77,356
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:28am Oct 13, 2010 10:28am
Quoting bluetrader
Hey lallous, those are the worst trades ever... (Just kidding).

The A/U trade was not a pin bar technically speaking. The high of the bar is higher than the prior bar high. It is also going into resistance. Let's say you took it as a BUOB with a weak close (Hi Albatross), then you have to consider the resistance. You better be ready for price to reject hard off this level. In this case it didn't, but you really should take these at swing lows so it hardly becomes an issue. Great observation with the fact it bounced off a ppz and other confluences....
Thank you Sir
  • #77,357
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:37am Oct 13, 2010 10:37am
Quoting fascist
would you take this BOVB on GBPUSD? a countinuation of a bounce from 150 MA.
I for one would never take that.

We've been chopping like hell on the pair (trend is up but price is far from moving smoothly) and that brings into the equation lot's of potent short term S/R flips created by the heaps of bar highs and lows coming from the directionless motion of price.

At best it's definitely not a take and forget trade setup IMHO

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #77,358
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:46am Oct 13, 2010 10:46am
Quoting lallous
Hi all,

As usual great thread

Can I kindly ask you what do you think of the following two trades.
Please go easy on me

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/2194/99241140.th.png

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7569/62518728.th.png
Also to add to what Danny wrote, be careful with your fibs

A correct fib on the euro would have looked like this


Use the top of the swing points and lowest points. Also notice the way the nubmers run. The fib represents a % retracement of the previous move(s). So if price moved up price retraced to the 38.2 or 38.2% of the previous up move

Best
Mike
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  • #77,359
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:51am Oct 13, 2010 10:51am
Quoting mbqb11
Also to add to what Danny wrote, be careful with your fibs

A correct fib on the euro would have looked like this


Use the top of the swing points and lowest points. Also notice the way the nubmers run. The fib represents a % retracement of the previous move(s). So if price moved up price retraced to the 38.2 or 38.2% of the previous up move

Best
Mike
Thanks for the clear up,

I'm a bit confused regarding the fibs (I apologize if it is a lame question):
When do I draw the fib to have 0% at the top and 100% at the bottom and vice versa?
  • #77,360
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:53am Oct 13, 2010 10:53am
Quoting lallous
Thanks for the clear up,

I'm a bit confused regarding the fibs (I apologize if it is a lame question):
When do I draw the fib to have 0% at the top and 100% at the bottom and vice versa?
the zero will be at the top of a retracement of a move up(see my chart), and the opposite will be the case when looking to sell into a rally from a move that goes short.

Think zero = start of the retracement
100% would be a full retracement to the previously used swing point

Best
Mike
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