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AUD/USD

  • #24,281
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:59am Oct 13, 2010 9:59am
Short 5 contract @ .9920. Took this trade due to the massive run up in gold $18 dollar in the past hour while the AUD only moved 40 pips. With such a large dollar up move for gold the AUD should have been up much more than that. Also the Euro has yet to break to new highs and we have a double top in 150 points on the dow.
  • #24,282
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:17am Oct 13, 2010 10:17am
Quoting usapgapro
Short 5 contract @ .9920. Took this trade due to the massive run up in gold $18 dollar in the past hour while the AUD only moved 40 pips. With such a large dollar up move for gold the AUD should have been up much more than that. Also the Euro has yet to break to new highs and we have a double top in 150 points on the dow.
Sorry, noob here... Why do you short when you think AUD is supposed to u much higher?
  • #24,283
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:29am Oct 13, 2010 10:29am
all major pairs HAD dropped against USD,except stupid Aud and Nzd!!! WTF!!!
  • #24,284
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:36am Oct 13, 2010 10:36am
Quoting fxking
all major pairs HAD dropped against USD,except stupid Aud and Nzd!!! WTF!!!

Need new glasses...?
  • #24,285
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:42am Oct 13, 2010 10:42am
Quoting denewbie
Sorry, noob here... Why do you short when you think AUD is supposed to u much higher?
Noone really knows what is going to happen. It is and has been my opinion that we are close to some kind of top. My previous posts will reflect that my trading style for this pair is to take an initial large short position with a tight stop loss in hopes of "catching" the top and then adding on they down. I have done this successfully 3 times on this pair only to be stopped out at BE after what I thought was the top turned out to be nothing more than a retracement.

After such an enormous up move or bubble, some will disagree, that GOLD and AUD have had in the past weeks you often see a "blowoff top" where price goes nearly straight up for an hour or so only to come straight back down. This is when all the retail traders who have been sitting on the sidelines just "have" to get in because there emotions cause them to want to get in on this action because they believe price will continue to go up. The "smart" money will buy huge sums of contracts to help raise the price so they can short hypothetically 10 times as much as they just bought minutes ago for a high price. As the retail traders are loading up on longs the "smart" money is selling into the strength causing the massive downturn and completing the "blowoff top".
  • #24,286
  • Oct 13, 2010 10:54am Oct 13, 2010 10:54am
Quoting usapgapro
Noone really knows what is going to happen....
Oh... I see... Thanks for the reply. =)
  • #24,287
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:28pm Oct 13, 2010 1:28pm
Look, I get that everything Aussie is golden, and everything US is crap. I understand momentum and piling on. But up over 20% since May? And who knows how high? I just don't see how that much has changed between the 2 countries in just a few months. I am taking a small short on this pair--- long term--- just for fundamentals sake. It's not like the AUS is on the gold standard. They have flaws as well. 1st target is 90-91 area for a 50% retrace.

Regards,
  • #24,288
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:32pm Oct 13, 2010 1:32pm
The weekly closes on AUD/USD are really good on the last two candles,both closing above the 2008 historical highs, what was once massive resistance seems to now be a really good support
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  • #24,289
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:38pm Oct 13, 2010 1:38pm
Short @0.99351. This is the 161.8% extension from the May 25 low. So far got a decent 15 pip bounce off of it to the pip. Extremely tight stop though, because this thing has got momentum like nobody's business.
  • #24,290
  • Oct 13, 2010 2:08pm Oct 13, 2010 2:08pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting FX-Petra
Look, I get that everything Aussie is golden, and everything US is crap. I understand momentum and piling on. But up over 20% since May? And who knows how high? I just don't see how that much has changed between the 2 countries in just a few months. I am taking a small short on this pair--- long term--- just for fundamentals sake. It's not like the AUS is on the gold standard. They have flaws as well. 1st target is 90-91 area for a 50% retrace.

Regards,
I live in Australia, live in WA where all the money/mining is and I can tell you it is not golden. This is just typical Labour/Gillard propaganda that small minded chest beating Aussies want to brag over.

The facts are:

 

  1. The mining companies are NOT anywhere near former production
  2. The miners have NO new contracts
  3. The mining companies are NOT hiring like they used to
  4. The average miner that was on $55 - $90 per hour is now on $28 ph.
  5. Commodity prices are NOT what they used to be (except gold)
  6. The high $$$AU means our commoditites are now too expensive on the world market
  7. China is implimenting moves to SLOW down their economy, this was NOT done during the boom.
  8. With a slowing chinese recovery, low yuan (pegged to US$$$) and high Aussie $$$, do you really think that spells good news!

It's all propaganda. This dollar is going to break through parity, smash all stops and retreat so fast traders won't be able to react on time.

GOVERNMENT PROPAGANDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,291
  • Oct 13, 2010 2:49pm Oct 13, 2010 2:49pm
I work in the Mining idustry in Australia and I am currently well renumerated for this priviledge, my wage has increased 100% in 4 yrs.

However I must agree also that the big money as usual is limited to the few, I am not talking about 100k per yr but 300k plus.
There is a massive flow of mining work going to Asia from Australia, infact the 50Billion Gorgon project is being 100% designed in The UK 80% of the fabrication work is being performed in China etc.
By sending work offshore Australian miners are saving 30%.

The trend for big projects is to send the majority of work offshore, the reserve bank Australia should not have an isse with wage pressures from Mining projects.
I cannot fathom the Jobs numbers from where I sit i cannot see massive hiring, however the figures do not lie, I do know though that I cannot obtain painters or general trades to work on my home, as all trades are fully booked until the end 2010, this is because the massive stimulus of goverment money into housing causing people to renovate homes etc.
Sooner or later Australia is heading for a fall and along with it will go the AUD, hwoever currently the trend is firmly to the up and we sould look to ride that trend.
Dont know what will reverse this trend in the near future.

JP
  • #24,292
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:52pm Oct 13, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting reform
I work in the Mining idustry in Australia and I am currently well renumerated for this priviledge, my wage has increased 100% in 4 yrs.

However I must agree also that the big money as usual is limited to the few, I am not talking about 100k per yr but 300k plus.
There is a massive flow of mining work going to Asia from Australia, infact the 50Billion Gorgon project is being 100% designed in The UK 80% of the fabrication work is being performed in China etc.
By sending work offshore Australian miners are saving 30%.

The trend for big projects...
Hi JP (JP here also )

Thanks for your insight into the mining industry. I don't see how Australia can fall with China continuing to grow and Australia having the natural resources China needs. Brings up something else I was reading the other day in Businessweek with Charlie Rose interviewing the prime minister of Mongolia. Possible replacement to Australia for natural resources http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...8014855514.htm. But I digress. My view is fairly limited being 10,000+ miles away.
  • #24,293
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:57pm Oct 13, 2010 5:57pm
AUDUSD
What’s your take on parity?
This month?
Next month?
Or next year?
But I’ll keep my longs open for a little longer.
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  • #24,294
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:59pm Oct 13, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting damo
I live in Australia, live in WA where all the money/mining is and I can tell you it is not golden. This is just typical Labour/Gillard propaganda that small minded chest beating Aussies want to brag over.

The facts are:
[list][*]The mining companies are NOT anywhere near former production[*]The miners have NO new contracts[*]The mining companies are NOT hiring like they used to[*]The average miner that was on $55 - $90 per hour is now on $28 ph.[*]Commodity prices are NOT what they used to be (except gold)[*]The high $$$AU means...
Not that I disagree with you, because everything I've seen tells me the same, but to clarify, you sure you aren't being biased, for example your in a town or city that's doing shit, whereas some other town or city is the new mining town they're producing in?

Reminds me, might have lots of miners on this housing subsidy ride getting bitten if their home values drop to a point they decide to abandon their mortgages like the Americans have.
  • #24,295
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:07pm Oct 13, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Not that I disagree with you, because everything I've seen tells me the same, but to clarify, you sure you aren't being biased, for example your in a town or city that's doing shit, whereas some other town or city is the new mining town they're producing in?

Reminds me, might have lots of miners on this housing subsidy ride getting bitten if their home values drop to a point they decide to abandon their mortgages like the Americans have.
This article speaks for itself..
http://www.news.com.au/business/oil-...-1225936903076

Its going gangbusters..

As for the currency.. when you have interest rate differentials of 4.25% Aussies favour why park it elsewhere.
Its going up and those who talk of overvaluation arent seeing the big picture..
  • #24,296
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:18pm Oct 13, 2010 6:18pm
Onwards and upwards for now hopefully.. The guy on the radio said it could hit parity within hours!! I dont know what method hes using though... breakout? James16? Fibs? Bobokus? Jacko?
  • #24,297
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:19pm Oct 13, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting Jazznos
Onwards and upwards for now hopefully.. The guy on the radio said it could hit parity within hours!! I dont know what method hes using though... breakout? James16? Fibs? Bobokus? Jacko?
earlier buyers of AUD/Yen emerging..
  • #24,298
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:29pm Oct 13, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting lasty
This article speaks for itself..
http://www.news.com.au/business/oil-...-1225936903076

Its going gangbusters..

As for the currency.. when you have interest rate differentials of 4.25% Aussies favour why park it elsewhere.
Its going up and those who talk of overvaluation arent seeing the big picture..
Looks like the Aussies are making the same mistakes that the American's have made over many years... no one learns and history will repeat itself. That will be a bust industry in AUS eventually.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #24,299
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:31pm Oct 13, 2010 6:31pm
wHAT IS THE LOOK ON THE AUSSIE LOOKING TO REACH PARITY... I AM GETTING LONG WHEN THIS THING RETRACES..gOT TO LOVE AUSTRALIA tHATS MY NEXT VACATION SPOT WHEN I ACCUMULATE SOME PIPS
  • #24,300
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:36pm Oct 13, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting Pipwanderer
wHAT IS THE LOOK ON THE AUSSIE LOOKING TO REACH PARITY... I AM GETTING LONG WHEN THIS THING RETRACES..gOT TO LOVE AUSTRALIA tHATS MY NEXT VACATION SPOT WHEN I ACCUMULATE SOME PIPS
Look forward to seeing ya when you come down!

I heard two things on the news today - as i said one guy said could hit parity in hours, another said in weeks.

Technicals I see - bounce off daily PIV and 50% fib of recent swing after small retrace from yesterdays high which were close to now again. If it breaks that, good sign obviously. Im targeting .9964 for the time being anyway.
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