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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,321
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:36am Oct 13, 2010 1:36am
NightMove, I noticed that 1H set up without backing by 4H set up is quite fickle thing. I decided to trade at minimum 4H set up and 1H set up only valid if there is also 4H set up.
Eur/Jpy is a good example right now. I love this pair but recently it behaves unnaturally tame as GBP/JPY.
  • #8,322
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:58am Oct 13, 2010 1:58am
GBP/JPY also forming set up. hopefully.
  • #8,323
  • Oct 13, 2010 2:22am Oct 13, 2010 2:22am
Quoting shiko
NightMove, I noticed that 1H set up without backing by 4H set up is quite fickle thing. I decided to trade at minimum 4H set up and 1H set up only valid if there is also 4H set up.
Eur/Jpy is a good example right now. I love this pair but recently it behaves unnaturally tame as GBP/JPY.
I agree about the 4h. I had all my charts set to 1h but have just switched them to 4h, I think probability is much higher there & can always move to lower tf for trigger once trade is decided.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #8,324
  • Oct 13, 2010 2:37am Oct 13, 2010 2:37am
Quoting 4xStar
I agree about the 4h. I had all my charts set to 1h but have just switched them to 4h, I think probability is much higher there & can always move to lower tf for trigger once trade is decided.

Exactly, G/A and G/J both are showing set ups on 4H and also on 1H. so, I guess 15 min chart can be used as a trigger in this case and probability is much higher especially as both pairs are in down trend on daily.
G/A is looking much better. It is already testing retracement trend line. so, after GBP news is over if things fall together it can be a nice short trade.
  • #8,325
  • Oct 13, 2010 3:15am Oct 13, 2010 3:15am
Quoting NightMoves
Nice breakout of the EJ for the moment...lets see if we get the all in signal....

--NM
Hi NightMoves,

Just got onto this thread, great method you have here.

Sorry if my q's seem somewhat novice, I am still building an understanding of your method.

Can I just ask, for this E/J setup, were you looking at the 4hr sma's to be all pointing in the same direction before you took the trade, and also you mention the confluence of fibonacci amongst other things, was this used in this case??

Many thanks.
  • #8,326
  • Oct 13, 2010 3:47am Oct 13, 2010 3:47am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
well done
  • #8,327
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:14am Oct 13, 2010 4:14am
Quoting NightMoves
I see what your saying, and there is nothing wrong with that, really it is whatever a person is comfortable with. IF I feel the setup is not all that good but still may work I will go in with smaller lot and then when confirmed that it is going to work then I will add to it.

--NM
Hi ya Shiko and NightMoves..

I'm having a conflict with myself and MM could the both of you please help with these questions?..

Shiko..with your 2% rule if you add the extra when it goes against you does that mean you would be averaging a loser or is it only workable on larger TF?.... if on a shorter TF would it be even more dangerous as your signal to enter may have been removed by that stage....or are the signals still there so it is a safe trade?

NightMoves when adding to a winner is most of the move gone by then on say a shorter TF or you mainly do this with larger TF's...would your stop loss be at the same position as your original SL on first lot or do you add when you are finding areas of S/R with confluence?

As you say NightMoves is it maybe something you become accustomed and comfortable with over a lot of active time and experience in the markets as I have alot of bad habits with my MM and have got to the stage I have to be more focused and stringent with myself and following the rules..

Thank you in advance for any help that the both of you could give..

Adrian
  • #8,328
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:56am Oct 13, 2010 4:56am
NightMoves, I wonder, if for example you enter trade. Your first target is 40 pips same as you risk to close part of your position. The price moves in your favor 20 pips and stalls there 30-60 min up and down unable to break. You see support on 1H. Are you taking your partly profit at this level and moves stop to BE then, especially if you see you got 25 pips and suddenly price moves from support against you to your entry point. You know there is a saying, do not let your winner turn into loser. Are you still letting the trade run it copurse and do not close part of your posdiiton doe snot matter what until you are around your first target or you do not let price to move against you once you are in profit even if it is only 20-25 pips and you expect 40-50 as your first target.

Thank your for this great thread
  • #8,329
  • Oct 13, 2010 5:10am Oct 13, 2010 5:10am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Shiko and NightMoves..

I'm having a conflict with myself and MM could the both of you please help with these questions?..

Shiko..with your 2% rule if you add the extra when it goes against you does that mean you would be averaging a loser or is it only workable on larger TF?.... if on a shorter TF would it be even more dangerous as your signal to enter may have been removed by that stage....or are the signals still there so it is a safe trade?

NightMoves when adding to a winner is most of the move gone by then on say a shorter TF or you...

Hi http://cdn.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...tar12343_5.gif aarangio,

I usually risk 2-3% per trade. However I have never done this before splitting my total risk into two in case if price retraces against me. I was reading BRV's thread No Brainer trades and he often used this method of money management. say your stop los on pull back breakout continuation is 40 pips.

You decide that you are going to risk 3% on all this trade. Let it be $300.
So, you put limit order $5 per pip and stop loss of 40 pips. Now, you enter trade but then price retraces against you and moves to some S/R line above/ below your entry. You enter another $5 per pip position but with stop of only 20 pips. So, your total risk is $300. This is what i meant but I have not done it yet. I personally think that if entry/ timing is right, price most of the time doe snot retraces on you much.
Like my yesterday EU trade, max DD was 7 pips and today GBP/AUD was 5-6 pips against me. When I enter at wrong time and place then I notice price moves against me significantly.
I am not sure about all of this, but it is what I think. Probably the key lies with momentum.
  • #8,330
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:09am Oct 13, 2010 6:09am
Quoting shiko
Hi http://cdn.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...tar12343_5.gif...
Hi ya Shiko..

Thanks for your reply and help/explaination on this..much appreciated as each piece of the puzzle is getting me some where....towards the winning finishing line I hope ..

Thank you,
Adrian
  • #8,331
  • Oct 13, 2010 6:53am Oct 13, 2010 6:53am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hi NightMoves,

Just got onto this thread, great method you have here.

Sorry if my q's seem somewhat novice, I am still building an understanding of your method.

Can I just ask, for this E/J setup, were you looking at the 4hr sma's to be all pointing in the same direction before you took the trade, and also you mention the confluence of fibonacci amongst other things, was this used in this case??

Many thanks.
Hello NaughtyPip,
In this case I was looking at the retracement line, once it broke the retracement line it moved north and very close to the 114.50, that line round number is also a resistance level as is all round numbers they are either support or resistance, so what needs to happen when is this, when a breakout occurs near an RN (round number) then that RN becomes the area to look for the bpc, I will trade to that RN asthe RN is an invisble barrier and if you go through many of my posts you will see I use those RN's as such, and I will wait for it to clear the RN retest it and then take another look at the PA to see if I get bpc of that RN.

The breakout was a momentum breakout that stopped at the 114.50 RN, that now becomes my new resistance and I wait for a bpc there.

I did not use fibo on that setup because on the 4H chart there was resistance at that level so the breakout looked good as a momentum but the sustainabilty will come if the bpc happens at the 114.50. Also on the 4H chart the last retracement has broken the 100MA, so again a bpc of the 114.5 is what I am looking for the chart I posted was to show what I was looking for before making an entry, if the setup does not follow through then I will not enter the trade.

Just remember those RN,s are just as important as any fib or trendline, if you go back through your charts and look at how price has behaved in the past around those round numbers you see that price gets really squirrely around those.

--NM
  • #8,332
  • Oct 13, 2010 7:00am Oct 13, 2010 7:00am
Quoting shiko
NightMoves, I wonder, if for example you enter trade. Your first target is 40 pips same as you risk to close part of your position. The price moves in your favor 20 pips and stalls there 30-60 min up and down unable to break. You see support on 1H. Are you taking your partly profit at this level and moves stop to BE then, especially if you see you got 25 pips and suddenly price moves from support against you to your entry point. You know there is a saying, do not let your winner turn into loser. Are you still letting the trade run it copurse and...
SHiko,
I normally will move my stop to BE after about a 50 pip move or so, IF I am using targets after the fisrt target is hit then I will scale down the position size or move my stop again or both, most of the trades I am in are for 200 to 300 pips or more if resistance levels are only 20 to 50 pips away then I will pass on the trade until a bigger move seen.

But I always start scaling down after key areas have been reached and those areas are arbitrary based on S/R levels, if I am trading intraday trades then i use the ADR as a target.

--NM
  • #8,333
  • Oct 13, 2010 8:00am Oct 13, 2010 8:00am
Quoting NightMoves
Hello NaughtyPip,
In this case I was looking at the retracement line, once it broke the retracement line it moved north and very close to the 114.50, that line round number is also a resistance level as is all round numbers they are either support or resistance, so what needs to happen when is this, when a breakout occurs near an RN (round number) then that RN becomes the area to look for the bpc, I will trade to that RN asthe RN is an invisble barrier and if you go through many of my posts you will see I use those RN's as such, and I will wait...

Thankyou Nightmoves, this makes perfect sense now.
  • #8,334
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:21am Oct 13, 2010 9:21am
here is a short I just took. cad/jpy h4
Low risk entry in my opinion in conjunction with the long-term trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4 13.10.2010.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #8,335
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:38am Oct 13, 2010 9:38am
Quoting NightMoves
SHiko,
I normally will move my stop to BE after about a 50 pip move or so, IF I am using targets after the fisrt target is hit then I will scale down the position size or move my stop again or both, most of the trades I am in are for 200 to 300 pips or more if resistance levels are only 20 to 50 pips away then I will pass on the trade until a bigger move seen.

But I always start scaling down after key areas have been reached and those areas are arbitrary based on S/R levels, if I am trading intraday trades then i use the ADR as a target.

--NM...


NightMoves, thank you for advice.
I also understand now that some trades do not worth to mess with due to proximity of previous high. We never know will it be broken or not. But we know that during trend price moves towards that previous high/ low with high probability. So, the further it is the better the trade might be.
I shorted GBP/AUD at 1.6053. Closed half of my trade at about 25 pips and then another 25% closed same place cause it stuck there and moved stop to BE. It finally hit my first target of 40 pips but then moved and hit my BE stop and then moved to my further target,, so I guess trade would not go where I expected anyway.
But what I wonder the most. Say you entered trade. Trade gave you 30 pips , then it moved against you towards your entry price. Will you set your stop to BE then or you will still let the trade to run even if after giving you 30 pips but less than your first target it moved against you into negative zone?
I am thinking do not let winner turn into loser but we see that price visits entry point after giving some profit and then resuming moving in intended direction.
I usually closed half of my posiiton at my first target, but mathiematically speaking it is better probably to close only 30% if we have possibility to make 200-300 pips.
  • #8,336
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:39am Oct 13, 2010 9:39am
I am mostly interested now in trade management and exits, cause it is where the real money comes from.
  • #8,337
  • Oct 13, 2010 9:46am Oct 13, 2010 9:46am
EU does not look so good. It practically bounced from previous trend line downward and again made lower high. Good that I did not get greedy and set target under that trend line. I think until it is either breaks trough that resistance or reverses into down trend on 4H it is not a safe bet anymore.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h.gif Size: 74 KB
  • #8,338
  • Edited 11:36am Oct 13, 2010 10:54am | Edited 11:36am
building new positions

4h eurusd long @1,3924, half of the position has been stopped out breakeven already
4h audusd long @0,9873, sl has been moved to breakeven
4h gbpusd short@1,5838

gbpusd is a countertrend trade, I hope you don't mind me posting it here

edit:
gbpusd trade starts looking bad, but daily chart will offer a long entry at theend of the day
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4h- 13.10.2010.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4h- 13.10.2010.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4h- 13.10.2010.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #8,339
  • Oct 13, 2010 11:23am Oct 13, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Custos
here is a short I just took. cad/jpy h4
Low risk entry in my opinion in conjunction with the long-term trend.
My humble opinion: i am not so sure. Too much S/R cluster in that area(yellow rectangle on chart below). I will wait for the break of those two red lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 13 12.22.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #8,340
  • Oct 13, 2010 11:44am Oct 13, 2010 11:44am
Quoting ashes
building new positions
...
gbpusd is a countertrend trade, I hope you don't mind me posting it here

edit:
gbpusd trade starts looking bad, but daily chart will offer a long entry at theend of the day
Another way to look at it: GU at top of its downtrend channel. If trend is changing it is no longer countertrend, but in any case, it could make another trip to channel bottom before resuming uptrend ... time will tell ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 54 KB
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
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