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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,301
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:36pm Oct 12, 2010 5:36pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #8,302
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:53pm Oct 12, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting NightMoves
If I enter a trade I go in with what ever lot size I have decided for the whole trade. I do not add to the position. I usually start scaling it down as price reaches my targets if I am using targets. So after price moves and a target gets hit I may scale down half the lot size and let the rest run or I am scale a smaller size. But I never add, I know some people use the martingale system but I dont like adding risk when the PA is getting closer to a turning point.

--NM


what I actually meant that stop is same price for both position. For example. I decide my total risk for a trade is 2%. But I enter say with 1.4% risk and if after entry price retraces against me I add 0.7% risk position with stop at same price as first position. I have not done it yet but I planned it for today trade. However it went into profit right away and never came back, so, i did not have a chance to test this kind of trade management. My winner obviously was smaller than it could have been if I entered with full size.
  • #8,303
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:56pm Oct 12, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting Keithmaxkb
Good point. 3 plus hours to go. We can wait and see what the ATR is then. Keith

Yeah, it was a good trade, but I did not go completely with my plan. Closed half position at predetermined level, but than price stalled for the whole hour and I had to go, so I closed the rest at same level. It went all the way down hitting all my targets. i wonder, are you guys leave trades unattended even after you closed part of your position and moved stop to BE?
I thought there was not enough ATR to go around anymore for today. Ok, I think at least now we can wait for pull back. Important level seems broken this pair can go a long way down now.
  • #8,304
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:19pm Oct 12, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi NM,

Thanks for the description. So would you take the trade if the 1-2-3 also broke the counter trend line?

If I understand correctly, the counter trendline break is the most important aspect?

Maybe you could demonstrate by example... if you take a look at the EUR/AUD on the daily the price retraced back up to the 50% level. At this level on the 4 hr you get the 1-2-3.... then you get the break of the counter trend line. Would you wait for the trend line break and then a BPC or would you be happy to take the break of the counter trend line...
I like to wait for the trend line break and then a retest of the line(bpc) before I get in it. I find the trades turn out better when the price does exactly as as I want it too.

Many times I have seen the 1-2-3 off the 50% only to start going back the way it was going so I find better it to wait for trend line break, but again many times the FIBS and round numbers fall in the same area and if the counter trend line is still far from being broken, I may trade it (down or up) to the counter trend line and see if the trend line gets respected, so you almost have to take each setup as its own.

After you get some screen time you will begin to see where it is safe to trade before a trend line break and when it is better to wait.

--NM
  • #8,305
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:21pm Oct 12, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting shiko
what I actually meant that stop is same price for both position. For example. I decide my total risk for a trade is 2%. But I enter say with 1.4% risk and if after entry price retraces against me I add 0.7% risk position with stop at same price as first position. I have not done it yet but I planned it for today trade. However it went into profit right away and never came back, so, i did not have a chance to test this kind of trade management. My winner obviously was smaller than it could have been if I entered with full size.
I see what your saying, and there is nothing wrong with that, really it is whatever a person is comfortable with. IF I feel the setup is not all that good but still may work I will go in with smaller lot and then when confirmed that it is going to work then I will add to it.

--NM
  • #8,306
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:30pm Oct 12, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi NM,

Thanks for the description. So would you take the trade if the 1-2-3 also broke the counter trend line?

If I understand correctly, the counter trendline break is the most important aspect?

Maybe you could demonstrate by example... if you take a look at the EUR/AUD on the daily the price retraced back up to the 50% level. At this level on the 4 hr you get the 1-2-3.... then you get the break of the counter trend line. Would you wait for the trend line break and then a BPC or would you be happy to take the break of the counter trend...
I looked at Morticians charts, and I see what your talking about, now what I look for during the bpc is...how many bars is it? a one bar pullback to me is not enough if the pullback takes more than 5 bars then it is taking too long and the setups may a range setup now or maybe the setup as completely fizzled away.

I like to see about 3 bars of pullback sometime I will take 2 bars but to me the perfect pull back will have 3 bars on the trigger chart but thats a perfect pullback.

--NM
  • #8,307
  • Oct 12, 2010 6:41pm Oct 12, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi NM,

Thanks for the description. So would you take the trade if the 1-2-3 also broke the counter trend line?

If I understand correctly, the counter trendline break is the most important aspect?

Maybe you could demonstrate by example... if you take a look at the EUR/AUD on the daily the price retraced back up to the 50% level. At this level on the 4 hr you get the 1-2-3.... then you get the break of the counter trend line. Would you wait for the trend line break and then a BPC or would you be happy to take the break of the counter trend line...
Here is the EA chart, not the trade is a bad trade because it will more than like work out, however I like to see a cleaner setup than this. But it may work out fine because market sentiment is down for sure on the daily and weekly.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA Setup voided.png Size: 56 KB
  • #8,308
  • Oct 12, 2010 7:50pm Oct 12, 2010 7:50pm
Here is a chart of the EU with very good setup and entry signal. The main trend on the H4 is up, this entry showed best on the 15 minute so you have to look at the smaller time frames to see what price is actually doing. But you can clearly see the BPC on this pair.

--NM

EDIT: I added the H4 setup chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 min trigger main trend up.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4 setup chart.png Size: 41 KB
  • #8,309
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:05pm Oct 12, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting NightMoves
Here is a chart of the EU with very good setup and entry signal. The main trend on the H4 is up, this entry showed best on the 15 minute so you have to look at the smaller time frames to see what price is actually doing. But you can clearly see the BPC on this pair.

--NM

EDIT: I added the H4 setup chart.

I actually had similar set up on EU but was not at home when pull back break out happened. i NOTICED THAT RETRACEMENT TREND LINES TEND TO FAN OUT FORMING FEW RETRACEMENT TREND LINES ONE WITHIN ANOTHER.


After day move we had flag formation with pole which also can be high probability trade set up especially with retracement trend line broken.
  • #8,310
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:12pm Oct 12, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting shiko
I actually had similar set up on EU but was not at home when pull back break out happened. i NOTICED THAT RETRACEMENT TREND LINES TEND TO FAN OUT FORMING FEW RETRACEMENT TREND LINES ONE WITHIN ANOTHER.


After day move we had flag formation with pole which also can be high probability trade set up especially with retracement trend line broken.
Yes that is correct there may be several retracement lines in which case you can trade line to line until the main retracement gets broke and then its all in...Hahaha I was not here for this setup today otherwise I would have taken it for sure.

Looking at the 4H chart the retracements seem to be getting deeper but there is still room for the trade. You can see how price was steadily bouncing off the 30MA and then it retraced between the 50MA and the 100 MA so the next retracement may be even deeper so it could be the trend is losing some of its momentum but still would have been a good trade.

--NM
  • #8,311
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:24pm Oct 12, 2010 8:24pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy.jpg Size: 54 KB



will long this with all free running margins


multi terminals and everything else
  • #8,312
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:25pm Oct 12, 2010 8:25pm
Hey NM, Checking in to say your charts and information is very comprehensive.

Great job sir!

PS.. Please let the seal be broken on usd/chf I'm short for 11 hours w/+5pips..lOLhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #8,313
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:26pm Oct 12, 2010 8:26pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy4.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #8,314
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:32pm Oct 12, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Hey NM, Checking in to say your charts and information is very comprehensive.

Great job sir!

PS.. Please let the seal be broken on usd/chf I'm short for 11 hours w/+5pips..lOLhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Thanks Chillypiper, as long as someone is getting something from this thens all worth it!!

I just took a look at the USDCHF pair and it looks like the market is on your side for sure, a bpc of the .9550 and I am pretty sure more southern exposure will come your way...

--NM
  • #8,315
  • Oct 12, 2010 8:50pm Oct 12, 2010 8:50pm
Looks like the EU is set to retest the main trendline...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend Line retest.png Size: 70 KB
  • #8,316
  • Oct 12, 2010 9:08pm Oct 12, 2010 9:08pm
Nice breakout of the EJ for the moment...lets see if we get the all in signal....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Breakout.png Size: 31 KB
  • #8,317
  • Oct 12, 2010 9:29pm Oct 12, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting NightMoves
Nice breakout of the EJ for the moment...lets see if we get the all in signal....

--NM
Here is what I am looking for...or a facsimile there of....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Up and away Maybe.png Size: 55 KB
  • #8,318
  • Oct 13, 2010 12:47am Oct 13, 2010 12:47am
Quoting Mortician.
Ok, i will oblige.

FOR eur/AUD

that failed
  • #8,319
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:27am Oct 13, 2010 1:27am
Yeah, EU doe snot look like as strong as before. managed to close most of position for 40 pips, left 25% running hopefully it will test previous high. I have TP few pips shy of it there. Pity I was not at home to enter on 15 min trigger. Now, GBP/AUD reloading. already reached 38Fib and set ups are forming on both 1H and 15 Min.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ga 1h.gif Size: 78 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ga 15 min.gif Size: 76 KB
  • #8,320
  • Oct 13, 2010 1:29am Oct 13, 2010 1:29am
But it is only valid after this:

4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif

4.3K 2.3K
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/viewchart.gif 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
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1.6% 1.5%
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/viewchart.gif 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate
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