How many demo trades before a system is considered viable? | Forex Factory

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How many demo trades before a system is considered viable?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 12, 2010 12:54pm Oct 12, 2010 12:54pm
I've been demo trading for about 2 months, made 58 trades in total and am up 94%. My question is, at what point can I reasonably assume that I'm ready to trade live? 50 more trades, 100, 500?

Pretty arbitrary question I know, but just looking for some feedback.
  • #2
  • Oct 12, 2010 1:57pm Oct 12, 2010 1:57pm
Well its not so much the trades, its the system its self. The further you back test the better ,but like said many times before......Past results are not a guarantee of future results
  • #3
  • Oct 12, 2010 2:28pm Oct 12, 2010 2:28pm
Simulator trade at top speed for perhaps two more months. That extra 500 trades'll go fast.

And congrats on your trading.
  • #4
  • Oct 12, 2010 4:11pm Oct 12, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Simulator trade at top speed for perhaps two more months. That extra 500 trades'll go fast.

And congrats on your trading.
I tried that, but I use MPTM for managing my trades and can't figure out how to use that with backtesters
  • #5
  • Oct 12, 2010 7:32pm Oct 12, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting lolpie
I've been demo trading for about 2 months, made 58 trades in total and am up 94%. My question is, at what point can I reasonably assume that I'm ready to trade live? 50 more trades, 100, 500?

Pretty arbitrary question I know, but just looking for some feedback.
The title of your thread focusses on a "system". Contrary to popular belief, my view is that most "systems" will eventually fail - possibly because they are created based on purely technical indicators and reflect merely what would have worked well in the passed 3,6 or 12 months.

So I would be careful about making a judgement that a "system" is proven to be profitable and therefore ready to hit the live market.

Consistent profitability resides in the method, which may (or may not) contain technical indicators, but more importantly is based on the skill, experience, knowledge and adaptability of the trader, and most critically which is able to adjust and adapt to the developing market conditions.. So systems are not "viable" (to use your terms) - it's the combination of the trader and the method.

If your demo trading is reflective of these latter points, and is showing consistent profitability over many months, then perhaps you are ready to gently dip your toes into live trading, where you will hopefully continue to develop your method over many more months and years..

All the best.
  • #6
  • Oct 12, 2010 10:32pm Oct 12, 2010 10:32pm
Go Live now. The most critical and important part of your training cannot even start till you are Live.
  • #7
  • Oct 13, 2010 3:27pm Oct 13, 2010 3:27pm
bit the same as yourself, have been trading with a demo account for 4 months except i just keep breaking even, but i tell myself as i'm only learning i shouldn't be discouraged by that! want to move onto a live account as i feel that i'd be far more careful and choosier with trades if i was trading real money (even if its just a micro account) I feel that I'm too careless with the demo account as its not real money,I take chances that i wouldn't if real money was at risk! anyone else like that when they were demoing?
  • #8
  • Oct 13, 2010 4:38pm Oct 13, 2010 4:38pm
Quote
The title of your thread focusses on a "system". Contrary to popular belief, my view is that most "systems" will eventually fail - possibly because they are created based on purely technical indicators and reflect merely what would have worked well in the passed 3,6 or 12 months.

So I would be careful about making a judgement that a "system" is proven to be profitable and therefore ready to hit the live market.

Consistent profitability resides in the method, which may (or may not) contain technical indicators, but more importantly is...

Wonderful words of wisdom. The system traders will realize it sooner or later how the system remains fixed while ebb and flow of market changes.

I am trying to become a discretionary trader by reading the markets structure ad flow. It is an immense hard work maintaining daily journals and internalizing the market patterns and behaviors.

Traders are just not interested to become discretionary/judgement traders. They do not even care to understand the ebb and flow of market. All they want is an automatic robot which makes them money effortlessly.

These automatic system trading is result of higher PC processing power after 1980s.

When ever i try to learn the market structure, i know collectively in those price pattern, behavior and action the trades made by robots are also reflected !
  • #9
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:44pm Oct 14, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting rlforex
bit the same as yourself, have been trading with a demo account for 4 months except i just keep breaking even, but i tell myself as i'm only learning i shouldn't be discouraged by that! want to move onto a live account as i feel that i'd be far more careful and choosier with trades if i was trading real money (even if its just a micro account) I feel that I'm too careless with the demo account as its not real money,I take chances that i wouldn't if real money was at risk! anyone else like that when they were demoing?
I know exactly how you feed as I'm a demo trader myself. However offlate, I've been focussed on trying to come up with a mechanical system and only trade the system and not take on any discretionary trades. Since I've done that my account balance is now a reflection of my system and not individual trades.

I'm of the mindset now where more money in my account only means one thing...my system is working...the actual amount no longer gives me a warm and fuzzy like it used to.
  • #10
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:47am Oct 18, 2010 8:47am
Quoting TexTrader
I know exactly how you feed as I'm a demo trader myself. However offlate, I've been focussed on trying to come up with a mechanical system and only trade the system and not take on any discretionary trades. Since I've done that my account balance is now a reflection of my system and not individual trades.

I'm of the mindset now where more money in my account only means one thing...my system is working...the actual amount no longer gives me a warm and fuzzy like it used to.
when you say a mechanical system is that an EA that you are developing yourself?...still a bit new to all these terms! and this is working better for you than doing manual trades? this is very encouraging to me as I wouldn't mind being able to program my own EA someday when i've more experience (have some programming skills but very rusty!)but the books that i've read so far seem to stress that mechanical systems fail, not too say that i want to treat these books like the bible but thats what they say, its good to hear from other sources that mechanical systems are working for them, gives me hope as i think i'd fare better in the long run with a mechanical system!!
  • #11
  • Last Post: Oct 18, 2010 9:03am Oct 18, 2010 9:03am
Depends a good deal on your average lot size / profit targets. If you're into scalping big lots for 5-10 pips, expect the broker to give you a hard time on your real account, no matter how and what worked fine on your demo. Slippage, delays, requotes - the three little piranhas that eat up your account in no time.

When are you ready to trade live, stick to the demo for 4 more months, I'd say.

Quoting lolpie
I've been demo trading for about 2 months, made 58 trades in total and am up 94%. My question is, at what point can I reasonably assume that I'm ready to trade live? 50 more trades, 100, 500?

Pretty arbitrary question I know, but just looking for some feedback.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
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