drgoodvibe's Journal

My Daily Journal to keep me honest..

My ongoing audited (updated daily) FX trading results are here http://www.myfxbook.com/members/drgo...goodvibe/52322

My journal and blog and various rants located here.. http://www.omegasupreme.com

EURUSD Trading for 16Nov09


Today's rundown of trades and market commentary was live blogged on Twitter. You can see the actual posts on my twitter feed at http://www.twitter.com/uupstart feel free to add me as I will be posting my trades and market commentary live throughout the trading day.
Trading the volatility breakouts today was a little bit hairy as there was no real discernible trend as price chopped and whipsawed quite a bit. If you didn't have your wits about you, you could certainly end up on the wrong side of the trade and get whipsawed quite a bit.
Here are today's trades. They look like a lot of trades, however I actually had only made 3 trades in total. 2 Longs and 1 Short, however part of my strategy is to take a portion of the trade out in profit on the way, essentially banking some profits immediately and letting the rest ride on to more profits or to break even + a couple of pips. Click on read more to see today's trades and charts and more details


Open Date Close Date Symbol Action Open Price Close Price Pips
11.16.2009 09:55 11.16.2009 10:17 EURUSD Buy 1.49783 1.49791 0.8
11.16.2009 09:55 11.16.2009 10:13 EURUSD Buy 1.49783 1.49858 7.5
11.16.2009 12:17 11.16.2009 12:26 EURUSD Sell 1.49147 1.4908 6.7
11.16.2009 12:17 11.16.2009 12:23 EURUSD Sell 1.49147 1.48874 27.3
11.16.2009 14:04 11.16.2009 14:09 EURUSD Buy 1.49989 1.50096 10.7
11.16.2009 14:04 11.16.2009 14:10 EURUSD Buy 1.49989 1.5006 7.1

Trade 1) Volatility breakout on the long side on this EURUSD Forex Pair, it was a bit of a tough call despite jumping into that trade early in the New York Session at 9:55AM EST. I was able only to really catch about 7.5 pips out ofa 10 pip move. The move was very quick and had a fairly good retracement right away. For all intensive purposes the trade was a good one, volatility on the 1M and 5M chart was at a low point and started to rapidly expand. So I took the trade in the direction that price was going once it broke the 1.4975 price barrier. It stalled quickly and so I took out about half the trade and banked it as profit just for psychological sake to be honest. The rest I took out quickly as price was rapidly turning back and I didn't feel like having to nurse a loser. Luckily as you can see price took a nose dive when Ben Bernanke spoke today.
Trade 2) I don't generally trade the news but this time it was too tempting to resist and so I did and ended up with a very good trade nonetheless. 27 pips on the USD Bullish news from Ben Bernanke's speech that he and the Federal Reserve will believe in a "Strong Dollar" policy.
Trade 3) As you can see with this last arrow, volatility breakout to the long side, and again had broken the 1.4975 barrier past 1.5000 so I got in riding a quick wave. Again a little messy, but on the first half of the trade I was able to close 10.7 pips and the second half 7.1. With price rapidly turning back again I didn't want to nurse a loser so quickly closed out the trade.
All in all a great trading day.

As always today's rundown of trading and market commentary was live blogged on twitter. You can see the actual trading live on my twitterfeed at http://www.twitter.com/uupstart feel free to add me as I will be posting my trades and market commentary live throughout the day.
Again today was a bit of an odd day trading the volatility breakouts as there was quite a bit of whipsaws - with the early morning of the New York Forex session giving up some pips on the down move of which I was able to catch about 5 Pips, and then lots of chop until an uptrend started to form. Where an X is marked in the chart was an entry that I ended up missing as I was reading some news article - I didn't chase the price however and just chalked that one up to stupidity and stayed out of the EURUSD! The other two entries afterwards weren't very fruitfull and matter of fact made me feel a little bit nervous. Click Read More To see the chart.
So I would end up getting out of them quickly as I kept thinking that there would be a turn back. By the looks of things there was! My number #1 rule is to preserve capital! So I tend to dislike any far reaching drawdowns, besides the fact that my stops are extremely tight. So if I can I will try to get out at Break even or +1 pip and avoid turning a winner into a loser.
Trading this FX pair is not always easy so I sniped what I could today trying to avoid taking any losses which was quite fortunate.
Here are the results


Open date Cloes Date Forex Pair Action Open Close Pips
2009.11.17 15:34 2009.11.17 15:39 EURUSD Sell 1.4843 1.4838 5
11.17.2009 15:33 11.17.2009 16:31 EURUSD Buy 1.48727 1.48729 0.2
11.17.2009 15:25 11.17.2009 15:32 EURUSD Buy 1.48682 1.48682 0

I'm back to making journal entries but this time just doing videoblogs.. with a little bit of text commentary..

Forex Trading for Yield... bringing the carry trade back but different. This time it's all about Commodities markets and Exotic high yielding emerging markets. A deep technical and fundamental explanation on how to trade these types of Forex currency pairs for yield and capital gains.

V-Journal link for Sept 28th here..



Major returns on USDHUF, USDTRY and AUDUSD riding the trend on a depreciating USD and bullish on Commodities and Emerging markets that have high yielding interest rate differentials. Essentially riding a "Risk On for Yield" wave.. finding the latest carry trade to get out sized returns.
As of Today here are the results -- and check out the video explaning my thoughts on todays news, trades etc.
13-Sept-10 Acct Start
Current Date 28-Sep-10

Realized PnL 6.09% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 17.68%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 3.08% TSX (Realized PnL) 1.12%

With all the other countries of the developed world racing to devalue their currencies we're seeing massive downward moves in the USD accross most currency FX pairs however the most interesting are the ones with a high yield (ie pay the most interest, swap per day) as traders and investors out there dump there dollar denominated assets and move into high yielding assets as assets like U.S Treasuries are paying next to nothing with the specter of further quantitative easing which will have an inherent impact of depreciating the dollar making investors run for the hills.

I'm still SHORT USDHUF, USDTRY and LONG AUDUSD. Watch the video to see and hear why. Model account is doing well at this time beating the SP-500 by quite a large margin, here are the results as of today.



Current Date 29-Sep-10

Realized PnL 6.16%
NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 19.73%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.82%
TSX (Realized PnL) 1.98%

Great results all week, having closed some positions out just taking some profits and frankly fearful that USD can't tank forever yesterday.. Well guess what USD keeps on depreciating against these high yielding currencies which really isn't a big surprise. I personally believe that the US Fed / Government will continue it's quantitative easing strategy in order to literally inflate it's currency in order to pay back it's debts with a depreciated dollar. I can see that across so many different currencies at this point and my accounts results are showing that. Having conservatively achieved 7.04% of realized gains and 22.63% of NAV as of 1-Oct-2010



Current Date 01-Oct-10

Realized PnL 7.04%
NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 22.63%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.95%
TSX (Realized PnL) 1.82%

Profit taking was the major idea for today, with the markets having gone far too much too fast there was bound to be some profit taking especially with so many news announcements this week. Non-farm etc will spook investors. I don't think much will happen this week until we get some news out otherwise it's currencies in a holding pattern. Which is fine by me as I'm making dough off of the interest rate swap anyway...





13-Sept-10 Acct Start
Current Date 04-Oct-10



Realized PnL 8.35% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 21.91%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.12% TSX (Realized PnL) 1.49%

High Yield Strategy Sharpe
Average OmegaSupreme Return 6.91% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.05% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.66

S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 2.74% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.43% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.74

Back to Risk on brings on big swings into high yield emerging markets. Which is great for us, Forex currencies trading which are USDHUF and USDTRY went on a tare while AUDUSD despite relatively negative news still bounced back . Great results.

13-Sept-10 Acct Start
Current Date 05-Oct-10



Realized PnL 8.42% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 29.94%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.25% TSX (Realized PnL) 2.93%

OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.21% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.13% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.59

S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 3.05% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.77% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.36

Despite doing well on all of my current positions forex right now I'm weary of everything getting a little heated against the USD. I'm not adding to any positions for the next few days, possibly looking for some cooling off before thinking about continueing to trade for yield on theUSDHUF, AUDUSD and USDTRY. I'm going to see if I can catch some retracements before putting on any future positions.



13-Sept-10 Acct Start
Current Date 06-Oct-10




Realized PnL 9.07% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 32.11%


SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.18% TSX (Realized PnL) 2.96%



OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.52% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.27% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.36



S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 3.24% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.83% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.49

FX emerging markets are finally coming into a trading range -- after trending and the dollar depreciating there had to be some profit taking coming up.


13-Sept-10 Acct Start
Current Date 08-Oct-10



Realized PnL 9.18% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 29.14%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.65% TSX (Realized PnL) 2.50%

OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.76% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.32% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.37

S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 3.44% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.93% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.55

With nothing much going on with news, there's quite a lot of indecision within the Forex markets these days. The USD having depreciated so much as of late I don't feel confident continuing to short it. I've hedge some of my emerging market bets current against the USD by buying the USDCAD which is currently at the bottom of it's weekly monthly, daily range. Let's see how it goes... www.omegasupreme.com

Current Date 11-Oct-10

Realized PnL 9.43% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 31.94%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.67% TSX (Realized PnL) 3.24%

OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.97% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.35% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.40

S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 3.59% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.96% Risk-Free Return 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.65

Feeling a bit uneasy in the FX markets today, all signs against emerging markets tell me that we're going to see some risk adverse behaviour. I'm planning on closing some of my USDHUF and USDTRY trades shortly while letting my USDCAD trade hang on for a while longer...www.omegasupreme.com






Current Date 12-Oct-10

Realized PnL 9.45% NAV (Realized + Unrealized PnL) 32.58%

SP-500 (Realized PnL) 5.06%

TSX (Realized PnL) 3.57%

OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe

Average OmegaSupreme Return 8.13%

Standard Deviation of Returns 1.35%

Risk-Free Return 2.00%

Sharpe Ratio 4.52



S&P Index Fund Sharpe
Average SP500 Return 3.75%

Standard Deviation of Returns 1.03%

Risk-Free Return 2.00%

Sharpe Ratio 1.71

Current results, despite not having posted recently I've been trading non-stop. Things have really changed recently with the major FX currency trends against the USD having finally reversed. USDHUF, USDTRY have had major reversals. I've lightened up quite a bit on my positions, I had mentioned earlier in my FX blog videos that I would be closing the bulk of my positions out and I have done so. The currency pairs that I'm still hanging ontu and trading are the following - AUDUSD, USDHUF, USDTRY, CHFZAR, ZARJPY, EURPLN, GBPCAD and EURCZK. All are either commodity driven or emerging market currency pairs.
Full system results are at the following link, though I'm finding that my calculations are actually more accurate then the ones here on myfxbook.com. My Sharpe ratio isn't looking half bad right now. ;-)
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/drgo...goodvibe/52322



Omega SP-500 Trading Start (13Sept10)

Sep-10 6.97% 1.72% Oct-10 15.29% 3.69% Nov-10 10.04% 1.22%


Total Realized Returns 35.71% 6.76% Net Asset Value 39.33%



Average Return 10.77% 2.21% Standard Deviation 4.21% 1.30% Risk Free Rate 1% 1% Sharpe Ratio 2.32 0.93