Odds are with a 4hr KISS | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Absolute Simplest KISS Method. Also, how do we measure risk reward? 68 replies

KISS method, why the hard way? 38 replies

Keep it Simple Stupid (KISS) Method 486 replies

Goodbye KISS 3 replies

KISS Method - Thoughts 10 replies

Attachments: Odds are with a 4hr KISS
Exit Attachments

Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #341
  • Oct 2, 2010 3:33am Oct 2, 2010 3:33am
Hi Tw0eleven

Thanks, I appreciate your thinking.

Have a good weekend

Cheers
WFX
  • #342
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:52pm Oct 4, 2010 7:52pm
Hello Everyone,

Nothing much going on to start the week. There are a lot of big news events this week, so I'm really not sure what to expect. We could get some knee jerk reactions when news is released...but it may stay choppy since each day brings something new. I don't see much in the way of setups on the charts yet. EU and GU are still in overall uptrends so I would use caution on any short setups(perhaps waiting until a Lower High is formed or a break of the overall trendline). As for EJ...it's a tough call...on one hand the BOJ intervened not too long ago, so shorts might not be good. But UJ is in a pretty strong downtrend, so EJ longs are having a hard time staying up...basically, crappy price action. Wish I had some better things to say...but just sit tight and let Price come to you!!!

Trade smart!
  • #343
  • Oct 5, 2010 8:43pm Oct 5, 2010 8:43pm
Hi 211, I am using FXDD for the 4 hrs chart, is it ok? Different brokers will have different GMT, it will affect the candle size right? I like this method, simply and pace is not that fast. However, as what u said, we need much patience. Your explanation is great and do con't your posting so I can learn from it. Cheers
  • #344
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:09pm Oct 5, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, I am using FXDD for the 4 hrs chart, is it ok? Different brokers will have different GMT, it will affect the candle size right? I like this method, simply and pace is not that fast. However, as what u said, we need much patience. Your explanation is great and do con't your posting so I can learn from it. Cheers
Hi Freedomsg,

I think FXDD should be fine. Afterall, we are trading on price action..so just trade what you see. If you can, post a few charts and we can go over them on here.

Cheers!
  • #345
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:15pm Oct 5, 2010 9:15pm
Hi 211, I attached the EU chart. My vision is price will retrace down and bounce on the trend line and close above the MA with the confirmation of MACD. Than I will have the buy signal? Is my vision correct? :-0
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #346
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:20am Oct 6, 2010 6:20am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, I attached the EU chart. My vision is price will retrace down and bounce on the trend line and close above the MA with the confirmation of MACD. Than I will have the buy signal? Is my vision correct? :-0
Yes, that could very well happen. Just make sure you keep an open mind because that's not the ONLY option available. Price could go down, bounce off the trendline and only go a little bit higher and then drop again(forming a lower high and possibly be the beginning of a trend reversal). Also, price may not go down that far to bounce off the trendline. I guess my point is, be patient...let price action develop and tell you what it's going to do.

Also, I have attached your chart below...what you said above could happen. Also, another thing to look out for is prior support&resistance areas! The Red circles are where there was prior resistance that has been broken...and you can see that a couple of times price has retraced back down to those prior areas(RED LINES). If you get the correct price action, 20ma touch, macd signals AND price reaches a prior suppor/resistance area, that makes your trade a higher probability of success!

Trade Smart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #347
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:05am Oct 6, 2010 7:05am
With regards to my above post...EU just did the same exact thing I was talking about! It pulled back at/near the 20ma(within 15pips) AND it was also a pullback to prior resistance area that seems to have turned into support!!! One very important aspect of these trades is that if you have a trade setup, you want it to be the FIRST or maybe second retest of these areas. After that, your probability of a successfull trade really goes down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #348
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:12am Oct 6, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Tw0eleven
With regards to my above post...EU just did the same exact thing I was talking about! It pulled back at/near the 20ma(within 15pips) AND it was also a pullback to prior resistance area that seems to have turned into support!!! One very important aspect of these trades is that if you have a trade setup, you want it to be the FIRST or maybe second retest of these areas. After that, your probability of a successfull trade really goes down.
Based on your above posted E-U chart, can I say one could have triggered a LONG (buy) entry based upon the candle closing as shown in the circle? Pls. comment.

Cheers
  • #349
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:06pm Oct 6, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting tradpat
Based on your above posted E-U chart, can I say one could have triggered a LONG (buy) entry based upon the candle closing as shown in the circle? Pls. comment.

Cheers
Entries don't often come at candle closes...they typically happen while the candle is forming( the pullback to the 20ma ). Now if the candle had closed at/near the 20ma...then you might have an entry at candle close if price action looked good enough. Hope that helps.

p.s. if you wait until candle close for entries, you typically miss most of the move!
  • #350
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:49pm Oct 6, 2010 8:49pm
Thanks for the note 211.
  • #351
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:41pm Oct 6, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Entries don't often come at candle closes...they typically happen while the candle is forming( the pullback to the 20ma ). Now if the candle had closed at/near the 20ma...then you might have an entry at candle close if price action looked good enough. Hope that helps.

p.s. if you wait until candle close for entries, you typically miss most of the move!
OK... it is something like "gut feeling," once we find / feel good set ups, then entries can be made.

Good trading to you + all!

Cheers
  • #352
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:39am Oct 7, 2010 11:39am
Well, I hope everyone was very cautious this week and traded smart. There wasn't a whole lot in the way of setups. It looks like GU, EU and EJ gave long setups earlier in the week...but the GU would have ended at breakeven, EJ(depending on where you entered) would have given breakeven or 75pips, and EU(if you happened to catch this one) would have given 50pips.

Other than that, it's been pretty choppy with some quick swings in price both directions. I still don't know if you can use this method reliably on NFP news days. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't...so I'll probably just be watching from the sidelines.

Have a good weekend everyone!
  • #353
  • Oct 10, 2010 1:46pm Oct 10, 2010 1:46pm
I am going over the charts from last week before trading starts this week and I came across this. This is a great example of how to use support and resistance areas to your advantage. This is the AU 4hr chart and you can see there was an area of resistance around .9700 the last week of Sept. Price finally broke through that area on Oct. 6th. Once that area is broken, it typically turns into support....just like it did on Oct. 8th! Those are some of my favorite type of setups when it lines up with the rest of the rules of this 4hr method.

One other note, the highest probability trades are FIRST TOUCH trades. What I mean by that is the first time price goes back to retest a prior Support or Resistance area. OR whenever price touches the 20 moving average for the first time after a trend change. Each touch after that becomes less and less probable of a successful trade.

Goodluck this week and Trade Smart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au4hr004.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #354
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:25am Oct 11, 2010 3:25am
Thanks for the info 211 How do u see the eu 1 hr tf chart. There was a gap open.. how do u trade it? I limit buy long when it retrace down to 1.3930 area... What is yr view on this setup?thanks
  • #355
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:31am Oct 11, 2010 3:31am
Quoting Tw0eleven

One other note, the highest probability trades are FIRST TOUCH trades. What I mean by that is the first time price goes back to retest a prior Support or Resistance area. OR whenever price touches the 20 moving average for the first time after a trend change. Each touch after that becomes less and less probable of a successful trade.
Hi 211

Pls. clarify what you meant for "1st touch" trade.
Is it the one bull candle after the doji in the circle?
Cheers
  • #356
  • Oct 11, 2010 5:55am Oct 11, 2010 5:55am
Hi 211, EJ 4 hr slowing diverenge. Price is up but MACD sloping down.. how will you play this setup? Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #357
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:25am Oct 11, 2010 7:25am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, EJ 4 hr slowing diverenge. Price is up but MACD sloping down.. how will you play this setup? Thanks
This is a somewhat tricky setup. Overall, it seems like we are in an uptrend AND MACD is above the zero line. However, in the short term(last few days)...price has been making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Price is below the 20ma, we had a trendline/channel break to the down side and MACD divergence with MACD sloping down.

So with all that being said, I wouldn't be going long until price stops making new lows. So shorts are the way to go for now, just be careful and look left at prior support/resistance areas where price may stop. You could take profit sooner than the normal 75pip target. Also, since it's not the best setup, you could be conservative and move your stoploss up to break even at +40 to +45pips.

Also, you could be REAL conservative and not take any trades at all until a better setup comes along. You have to decide what risk you can/cannot take and be satisfied with. I hope that helps.

Trade Smart!
  • #358
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:33am Oct 11, 2010 7:33am
Thanks 211.. you r man
  • #359
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:35am Oct 11, 2010 7:35am
Hi 211, is the trandline for this pair valid?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #360
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:36am Oct 11, 2010 7:36am
Quoting tradpat
Hi 211

Pls. clarify what you meant for "1st touch" trade.
Is it the one bull candle after the doji in the circle?
Cheers
1st touch just means the first time price touches the 20ma after you get a close above or below the moving average. I also call is the first retest or fist pullback. Hopefully the chart below will explain it a little better.

Just don't forget, you must have all the other criteria met before taking a trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4hr020.gif Size: 25 KB
1 trader viewing now