Backing Trades Thru Charts

EUR/USD Bearish AB=CD, use caution as there is no confluence to work with

AUD/CAD Yellow TL might be the next test

EUR/JPY I have something similar but with a short term approach.



Target is channel LTL and possible reverse trade after that.

USD/CAD Retesting TL

GBP/JPY Fighting 61% fib

EUR/JPY Channel LTL missed by 10 pips. If still holding, moving the SL to +80 is recommended

EUR/GBP Closed above TL + Fib and might continue to its technical target

EUR/USD Shorting on second retest (if/when) recommended only with a very tight SL

GBP/JPY Bullish flag might break the channel

Do we need to be right 90% or 80% of the time to be profitable?

Is a trader who is right 80% of the time a better trader than one who is right 40% of the time?

It is not a matter of being right or wrong, is how the trades opportunities are chosen. For the following explanation let’s assume for a moment that there are two traders who pick setups that meet similar criteria most of the time and Trader 1 is right 80% of the time and Trader 2 is right 40% of the time, just to give an example let’s say the following:

1. Both traders use H4 charts as the preferred TF
2. Both traders use a 1% risk max per trade
4. Both traders use an average SL of 100 pips
5. Both traders made a very good analysis on the entry points
5. Both traders made 10 trades already
6. Both traders have an account of $10,000

So far we can conclude that Trader 1 lost 200 pips and Trader 2 lost 600 pips but what happen when a setup is carefully selected? I’m going to say that Trader 1 made and excellent analysis on the entries but wasn’t too careful on the target levels, as a result he finished with an average RRR (risk to reward ratio) of 1:1, so out of his 10 trades he made a total of 600 pips (800 won, 200 lost). On the other hand Trader 2 reviewed the overall scenarios: entries, SL’s and take profit levels and decided to take trades with ONLY a RRR 4:1 and above, so out of his 10 trades he made a total of 1000 pips (1600 won, 600 lost).

Trader 1 ended up with a balance of $ 10,600
Trader 2 ended up with a balance of $ 11,000

TLC

Is a trader who is right 80% of the time a better trader than one who is right 40% of the time?

Spot on TLC - but you can explain this a million times and still most won't get it!

I'm still struggling with the entry point as it was hit IMO (down TL of the flag) but the choppiness made me step out for the moment. Is it better to wait for a daily confirmation in this kind of configuration ?

First of all let me clarify that the flag won't be valid until it breaks the UTL. From this point (E) the target is about 700 pips and as an aggressive trade the entry could be in a range of around 50 pips from 61% fib to LTL.

Point 3 is 127.2 FE of 1-2, and it is also at LTL of FLAG. good confluence of signal to go long for aggressive traders.

Thanks TLC. i just corrected my mistake.

Hello Gta, just keep this in mind, a pennat should have more like the sahpe of a symmetrical triangle and the 3 drive pattern is a reversal pattern that should be at the end of a trend.

USD/CAD
The Break #3338
The Retest #3344
The Rejection: Currently + 100

GBP/CHF

Just as an adjunct to TLC's USD/CAD analysis we have the following set up which will offer a low risk entry for those not already in the trade when the price breaks 1.0089 - the base of the inverted flagpole. Why is this a low risk entry? Because the flag, bearish wedge, whatever we call it, forms strong resistance levels, so a stop loss above the flag formation offers a good R:R. If this plays out then parity is the first target, expecting a bounce there, followed by TLC's target (see previous charts).

I'm having a problem with this analysis because the flag (pole) was essentially created by BOJ intervention and it is countertrend. Anyway it's not a case of right or wrong it's whether it plays out and when I'm not sure I stand aside.

EUR/USD Testing 61% fib and H4 TL



Closer look