james16 Chart Thread | Page 3839 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #76,761
  • Oct 7, 2010 9:58am Oct 7, 2010 9:58am
Quoting mbqb11
Depends on how you define risky. For me it doesn't fit in line with what I do. I am watching for solid PA, before picking the top here. But great area to watch.

Best
Mike
Guess I knew your opinion before I asked..LOL..my hands are going numb from sitting on 'em.

Cheers

H
  • #76,762
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:01am Oct 7, 2010 10:01am
Look, this happens almost every day. These are two setups I marked in REAL TIME. But no I did not trade them even on demo. Just followed and marked as they closed... So easy... So attractive.. so.. ehh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 min.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #76,763
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:30am Oct 7, 2010 10:30am
Hi Guys,
I know you all talk about location location location.
I found a pin bar looking bar on 1 hr chart,on EJ had a nose of 13 pips or so.
I believed it was good for 1 hour chart.
I checked connfluence found a lot of 50 fib ret and 61.8 ib ret and 150 ema on 1 hr chart all lining up.
So i decided i give it a try on demo.
The result was failed.
I don't damn understand the reason for failure,is it because i was fighting against bearish trend in daily today.
I did take a touch trade on EJ earlier this day it worked wonders made 36 pips.
Entered that at 115.27 and ran till 115.60.
but this damn pinnish bar spoiled my mood,i tried to enter on retrace place my order to limit buy at 114.68,It failed with all confluence also.
Now it is forming another pin right there.

This is my first time on 1 hour chart had good start but,this made me feel,sad,would you enlighten me with this.
http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/8753/49326908.gif
  • #76,764
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:32am Oct 7, 2010 10:32am
Quoting Adilius07
Look, this happens almost every day. These are two setups I marked in REAL TIME. But no I did not trade them even on demo. Just followed and marked as they closed... So easy... So attractive.. so.. ehh
Hi Adilius,

You're right of course, but I think one needs to be careful. Nothing wrong with those set ups, but at the same time I don't think most people would classify them as great either - although I would have been tempted by the second one, as it was a good size off 10900, had I been around (I've been stuck in a wretched seminar all day).

But they are more just based on the bars, and there are plenty of bars that fail. Ideally I like to see more confluence than say the first one, and more space to manoeuvre than the second.

There's plenty of so-so bars that hit, but also plenty that miss. Personally I don't want the kind of variance this brings.

Like Mike always says, the actual bar is only one factor, and the overall situation is more important. That said, I am a bit annoyed I wasn't around for that second one LOL.
  • #76,765
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:35am Oct 7, 2010 10:35am
Quoting 666Doom
Hi Guys,
I know you all talk about location location location.
I found a pin bar looking bar on 1 hr chart,on EJ had a nose of 13 pips or so.
I believed it was good for 1 hour chart.
I checked connfluence found a lot of 50 fib ret and 61.8 ib ret and 150 ema on 1 hr chart all lining up.
So i decided i give it a try on demo.
The result was failed.
I don't damn understand the reason for failure,is it because i was fighting against bearish trend in daily today.
I did take a touch trade on EJ earlier this day it worked wonders made 36 pips.
Entered...
Hey Doom

Read this post from me today before looking at my answer below. Tell me if you can see which number you fit in on that post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=76747



Answer below check post first please

Yes you are fighting HUGE bear bars, and trying to pick the bottom with a very tiny pin. Notice a few things the bearish close on the pin, showing like it is just "hanging" on there. I have talked about this concept where you think of the close like someone hanging off the edge of a cliff. This one has a few fingers on the ledge, where as if it closed very bullish it is like having two strong hands holding on. Also notice the next bar never broke the high. Remember a pin is not valid till that high breaks thus this was never a valid pin. These little nuances will keep you out of a LOT of bad trades. Trust me from experience

Hope this helps
Mike
  • #76,766
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:36am Oct 7, 2010 10:36am
EDIT: Mike jumped in with a better answer first. Curse him!

Hi 666,

That bar hasn't failed - it didn't break, so wouldn't have triggered using the standard approach.

If you enter on a retrace, and a lot of people do, this is just one of the drawbacks to set against the benefits of an early entry and bigger position size. This kind of scenario is why I enter on the break and not a retrace (not that's it wrong to do so, obviously).
  • #76,767
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:39am Oct 7, 2010 10:39am
Okay Guys i looked on daily and weekly i see a weekly line just at 114.73 is that the one that knocked the trade off.
Please help.
Regards
Taz
  • #76,768
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:43am Oct 7, 2010 10:43am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Doom

Read this post from me today before looking at my answer below....
Thanks Mike,
I am reading your post again and again.
I think i need to re-evaluate taking those kind of entries.
Okay,would you have taken a pin there,if it was big enough nose,or on a 4 hr chart.
Regards
Taz
  • #76,769
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:44am Oct 7, 2010 10:44am
Quoting 666Doom
Okay Guys i looked on daily and weekly i see a weekly line just at 114.73 is that the one that knocked the trade off.
Please help.
Regards
Taz
The way I would view (just my opinion) is that nothing knocked the trade off - the low of the bar was broken before the high, so the bar is invalidated.

But Mike's answer above sets out why, although it's a pin, it's really just not a very good one. I think a lot of people who use retraces would not have played this one that way.
  • #76,770
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:46am Oct 7, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Adilius07
Look, this happens almost every day. These are two setups I marked in REAL TIME. But no I did not trade them even on demo. Just followed and marked as they closed... So easy... So attractive.. so.. ehh
let's not forget that chart is a 5-minute chart.
both pinbars could've turned into losses, specially since the location & bar sizes were unideal.

yes they happen everyday.
the question is.. were YOU ready (prepared & experienced enough) to take them at that particular time?
based on your post... since u missed these 2 setups despite marking/seeing them in real time... IMHO, the answer is 'No'.

yes they happen everyday. & yes, we will miss a lot of profitable setups.
but your focus should be on the setups u are willing to take & will take.. much much more than the setups that u miss or didnt take or uncomfortable to take.

Hope this helps
posting this before i
  • #76,771
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:48am Oct 7, 2010 10:48am
BEOB failed, cant really think of a reason why this one failed. Anyone took this trade as well?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BEOB.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #76,772
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:49am Oct 7, 2010 10:49am
Quoting 666Doom
Thanks Mike,
I am reading your post again and again.
I think i need to re-evaluate taking those kind of entries.
Okay,would you have taken a pin there,if it was big enough nose,or on a 4 hr chart.
Regards
Taz
Hey Taz

Not me personally, as price is under the 115 so you are trading back heavy into that area which makes it tough. When you see pressure to one side I wait for something strong. What happens is we see a big move, think oh this has to retrace a bit, jump in on the close, and it drops lower. Then we see another pin and see this time it has to, and we just dig such a hole. I know trust me. Some tips I try for myself. Don't get fixated on one pair, don't get fixated on one type of bias. This is why I really worry about you new guys/gals on the 1hr and lower and why Jim stresses the higher. It will give you time to think and rationalize these situations.

I can almost guess exactly what happened there. (and this is not to pick on you I swear so many reading this are going to shake their heads).

You see movement across the markets. Volatility is high, palms sweat a bit, things are getting excited. You are correct keep note here we like volatility. You grab a pair that looks like it could be forming a pin. You see price is moving like crazy and think i don't want to miss that move back up. The bar closes, you know its not the greatest but convince yourself(plus you say I gotta hurry and buy things are moving quick). Next thing you know you are buying before the pin broke, you are stuck market continues lower with the stronger bearish bars. Now the frustration sinks in and we repeat that above process.

Again this is not to pick on you, I promise we all know this feeling and we are only relating the best way to get through that feeling. If you tighten up your entrys/bars/locations you will not even allow this to happen b/c you are waiting for that bar/location that screams at you. You will have losses but you will accept them a lot easier.

Mike
  • #76,773
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:50am Oct 7, 2010 10:50am
Quoting LiuLangZe
BEOB failed, cant really think of a reason why this one failed. Anyone took this trade as well?
Here was my view on this one,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post4074774
  • #76,774
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:51am Oct 7, 2010 10:51am
Quoting LiuLangZe
BEOB failed, cant really think of a reason why this one failed. Anyone took this trade as well?
Hi,

It stalled where you'd expect - at the top of that box of consolidation (previous resistance becoming support).

Basically, you're trading straight into trouble there.
  • #76,775
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:54am Oct 7, 2010 10:54am
Another thing I wanted to add. And again this is how I look at things.

If I gave you 3 trades for the entire month. I said Doom after those 3 you can not trade under any circumstances till the next month. Would you waste a bullet on that trade? Now go back over your trades you have taken and ask yourself that question. Better yet, try that. 3-5 trades and you close up for the month. Your outlook is going to change greatly. Once you can see what being profitable is, even a slight amount, you won't want to put yourself in as many bad situations.

I hope you don't mind me spring-boarding on you Doom, these can be generalizations too

Thanks
Mike
  • #76,776
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:58am Oct 7, 2010 10:58am
Quoting mbqb11
Here was my view on this one,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post4074774
That was very clear and concise mike, never fail to learn new thing from here every single day. Cheers.
  • #76,777
  • Oct 7, 2010 10:59am Oct 7, 2010 10:59am
Quoting Albatross
Hi,

It stalled where you'd expect - at the top of that box of consolidation (previous resistance becoming support).

Basically, you're trading straight into trouble there.
Yes, i overlooked that point, my thought was that since price close below 1.32 they next FTA would be 1.30 BRN. A lesson learned. Thanks.
  • #76,778
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:00am Oct 7, 2010 11:00am
Okay Mike,
It looks like i did make 1 and 3 blunder as you said, in my bar.
I had made rule for myself not to touch a pin on 4 hr until at least has a 45 pip nose,but still that one was a bugger.
I thought confluence will work for me but it did not.
Time and again i'm thinking pinbars are traps,only the ones i play at break are great.because a pinbar that never break was never one.
Quote
The way I would view (just my opinion) is that nothing knocked the trade off - the low of the bar was broken before the high, so the bar is invalidated.

But Mike's answer above sets out why, although it's a pin, it's really just not a very good one. I think a lot of people who use retraces would not have played this one that way.
Hi Al
I'm sure that to some extent closing above that point would have made difference as mike said it would have been a bullish close.
Thank you for your valuable advice.
I'm never going to play retrace again,it burns my account.lol
  • #76,779
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:04am Oct 7, 2010 11:04am
thanks Albatross and SC for replies.

SC, yeah that is really fast for me, I was barely able to mark them... how to trade them that fast, plus I need to have all this analysis (what Albatross is taking about) to be done in REAL TIME? Tough!

But one huge advantage is the number of occurences, many times I am just frustrated to wait wait wait....

I know this is too early anyway to think of intraday....
  • #76,780
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:10am Oct 7, 2010 11:10am
Ok all of you guys now thinking bloody hell , pin bars all around like you v come to a PIN BAR BALL of J 16 ...))
Yes I know the feeling and I totally agree with mike's comments settle down give yourselves the weekend to come to comprehend and prepare the road path ....

In mean while take what you can today tomorrow and dont get over excited.. Let the HERD work for you watch them dance ...

Is that right MIKE ? JIM ?

V
69 traders viewing now