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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #2,661
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:16am Oct 5, 2010 10:16am
Quoting DXTrade
No buddy, that wasn't a personalized post... just a general observation made after 5 years of forex forums.

But I can give you an example: see the bot of max in the other thread of steve?
Max is doing a great job, nicely coded... works maybe pretty good!
But is it still the bot trading Bob's system? Nope!
It's including trendlines, Trix, KG etc.... so basically something completely different.
And is Bob trading this? Nope... he sticks to the system working for him since years! And right he is. Improvements - if there are - needs to be tested...
Only I can make me 'feel bad'.

I agree with most of what you said. Max is doing something that I already did (except the thousand other filters) and the problem is, it only takes one big move and kaboom. I have put a grid on anti-grid, grid on reverse-grid using this system etc... On a big big move, they all blow up and not sure you are any better. Although I didn't do it using the 2.4.2 limits, I used unlimited Martingale... So maybe there is something there.

I am focusing on the STARC bands as a replacement for the BB bands. I will not post that on this thread any longer and will open a new thread soon once I complete the EA.

As far as NB 5.0, I am down about 2-3% on my account for closed trades and with some more DD to resolve. No setups really that I see, but I know this will pass! I just wish I would have caught the August trading... per Astral!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,662
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:04pm Oct 5, 2010 5:04pm
I dont want to appear to be picking on certain individuals but I want to point out why posting indicators without hard data causes confusion and sends people down the wrong path. I want to compare the STARC with TMA. You will also see why I chose the TMA for testing. Here is a pic of STARC.
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  • #2,663
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:05pm Oct 5, 2010 5:05pm
I want you to understand that there is nothing new under the sun. Here is a 7 MA with lines 100 pips above and below the MA line.
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  • #2,664
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:08pm Oct 5, 2010 5:08pm
Now here they are together. You will see that they are basically identical indicators. In other words STARC is nothing more than another MA indicator and will have all the problems that any other MA indicator has. We have used this in trading before and it would be the same as trading the 60x90 system. So if you want to know all the pluses and minuses of trading such a system you can go there and study it. There is where you will find hard data on trading such a system.
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  • #2,665
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:10pm Oct 5, 2010 5:10pm
Now here is TMA based on a formula using ATR and MA and then forming a nice smoothed center. You can see very clear cut signals to trade when the line is broken by price action.
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  • #2,666
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:14pm Oct 5, 2010 5:14pm
Here is a comparison of STARC entrances and TMA entrances with the 3 MA I recommended. You will notice there is a delay in the entrance points and the argument that TMA moves and repaints simply does not hold any water. It is a much more steady and reliable indicator. You have to remember one thing. I have traded RWB for many years but I am thinking of replacing it with TMA after some good hard testing. But until then I stick with the system because it has hard data behind it. The red lines are STARC entrances and the yellow are TMA entrances. I hope this helps those that are confused.
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  • #2,667
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:57pm Oct 5, 2010 5:57pm
Another indicator often posted is the Heiken Ashi. It actually is a good indicator but in reality it is nothing more than a 3MA by 3MA shifted 1 cross. We used this in an earlier version of the system and it did well. The #5 EA is a left over from that system and the #4 EA is an adaption using BB with that system. But with all systems you will always run into the runner trade no matter what indicator or system you use. There is no indicator that will tell you PRICE IS GOING ON A RUN NOW STAY OUT. It is very important that you understand that. You are going to get them so how you deal with them will determine your failure or success.
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  • #2,668
  • Edited 7:04pm Oct 5, 2010 6:40pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting nanningbob
Here is a comparison of STARC entrances and TMA entrances with the 3 MA I recommended. You will notice there is a delay in the entrance points and the argument that TMA moves and repaints simply does not hold any water. It is a much more steady and reliable indicator. You have to remember one thing. I have traded RWB for many years but I am thinking of replacing it with TMA after some good hard testing. But until then I stick with the system because it has hard data behind it. The red lines are STARC entrances and the yellow are TMA entrances. I...
I checked this chart on a moving forward basis, instead of looking at the TMA bands drawn here. At the point where you have the first entry, the top TMA band is 1.319. In real time, that same band was at 1.339. A 20 pip difference.

In real time, there was another entry at about 9/27 20:00, and it was a winner. The chart as you show it does not show any entry there.

I did some extensive testing on the USDJPY over the weekend, before I discovered the issue of the bands not staying still. There is a very real difference. I will send you more detailed results later. But over 2001, looking just at 7X2 High, there were 12 trades using the backtest charts. All of them were winners with a 100 pip stop, even using a large take profit. Going forward over the same time period, there were 19 trades. Three of these went into recovery, and another had a 155 pip drawdown. Even more troubling is that of all those trades, only four of them were the same trade (within a couple of days). That means that 8 of the trades on the backtest charts didn't happen in real time, and that 15 of the forward tested trades got lost on the backtest chart.

The TMA may still be a very viable alternative to RWB. I've been distracted the last day and a half by The Beast, but I intend to get back on track, test some more, and get some real analysis done of the results. But, even with that small data, it shows that there are very real differences between what the chart does going forward, and what it looks like it might have done when fully drawn. The TMA charts, when already drawn, simply cannot be used to give an idea of the history of the system. They are pretty much useless for backtesting, and are almost as bad for trying to show how the TMA indicator behaves.
  • #2,669
  • Edited 9:23pm Oct 5, 2010 7:17pm | Edited 9:23pm
I have had this debate so many times I get tired of arguing it about every 30 or 40 pages.
1. the trade signals at the time they are given are valid. Whether the lines have moved a week later is irrelevant. It has no meaning.
2. Back tester are fundamentally flawed. They do not give real time data. They only tell a system is working they do not give you real time data. There are so many variables they do not give, spreads, corrections, corruption, etc. I have found backtesters to only be accurate for about the last two weeks and then the data becomes corrupted.
3. All indicators move over time because the data changes so the entire argument becomes irrelevant. That is why they are called moving averages. They move.
  • #2,670
  • Oct 5, 2010 7:54pm Oct 5, 2010 7:54pm
[quote=bluemele;4067950]
Quoting Edd Ganuelas

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=169309
---

Thanks a lot.

Edd
  • #2,671
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:54pm Oct 5, 2010 9:54pm
hey NB, really respect you will all yr knowledge on the indicator man...
  • #2,672
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:00pm Oct 5, 2010 10:00pm
Bob let the guys battle it out if they want I guess. Looks like they r gonna do it anyway. I for one will not b following any suggestions other than the ones you sent over via email v6.0. Let's all just figure out these rules for a little bit and stick to them.

I don't know why we can't all just get good at one system before trying to improve it. (yes I know forums are here to share ideas on how to improve things but things here aren't broken)

This is bobs system v5. Let's stick to the rules posted here. If u don't like it then move on or start your own thread.

If u want to wait, there are a few of us testing v6.0. Give us some time and we can tell u if it's gonna hold water. In the mean time stick to rwb or the new indi (tma)

I for 1 think tma is a lot easier on the eyes. Very clear indi to glance at and u know if it trading time or not

Just my opinion. Good luck to all!
  • #2,673
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:05pm Oct 5, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting jtmoore007
Bob let the guys battle it out if they want I guess. Looks like they r gonna do it anyway. I for one will not b following any suggestions other than the ones you sent over via email v6.0. Let's all just figure out these rules for a little bit and stick to them.

I don't know why we can't all just get good at one system before trying to improve it.

This is bobs system v5. Let's stick to the rules posted here. If u don't like it then move on or start your own thread.

If u want to wait, there are a few of us testing v6.0. Give us some time and...
I agree. The TMA is easier to follow and clearer on the signals. Testing will let us know. SO far the EAs keep missing trades, first day problem and second day the Chinese fire wall keeps knocking out my VPN so missed several again. So down some after two days.
  • #2,674
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:12pm Oct 5, 2010 10:12pm
I've only had a few misses I think. Still need some tweaking. But as far as system goes, it's looking solid and if simplicity is what some of u r after then once we get this thing right, there won't b a system out there any simpler.

Clear rules and clean charts. Just need to enter trades where we want them to. Right now im more concerned about damn new regulations than I am about trading methodology.
  • #2,675
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:37pm Oct 5, 2010 10:37pm
Quoting nanningbob
I dont want to appear to be picking on certain individuals but I want to point out why posting indicators without hard data causes confusion and sends people down the wrong path. I want to compare the STARC with TMA. You will also see why I chose the TMA for testing. Here is a pic of STARC.
Bob,

I agree, STARC is a MA with ATR on it. I actually changed mine to use open prices instead of closed prices for more accuracy. I like to see where I came from instead of what was there and I have no idea now.

In the end, your system is a countertrend trading system and you could say they are all the same whether they are MACD based, Stoch, RSI or whatever millions of indicators based off of price action are.

You could line up 100M indicators and they will all say about the same thing right...

It is a matter of what you like. It is your system, by all means, choose to do what you will with YOUR system. I take no ownership, don't want my own thread, don't want to post my results daily, don't want to deal with all the hassles or challenges. You have a gift for this....

I choose only to make money from others idea's...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,676
  • Oct 6, 2010 3:42am Oct 6, 2010 3:42am
the last 2 days I have been able to close out 2 pairs that had been in some DD. The EurCad and Eu still buried. Had to take a couple losses, but I have never felt more confident that I could make it back then with this system.

Looking back and understanding the market Bob showed his experience by jumping ship last week and closing everything. Being new to this system I felt that I really needed to stay in the truly have some lessons with the recovery system.

Taking primary trades and making $$ is the fun part the DD and recovery is the defense and it is truly how you win and I want to learn that inside out.

I am getting into trades a little too early and that is adding to my DD. I really need to focus on RWB being above 85 or below 15...the red is what I have not been waiting on for some reason.
  • #2,677
  • Oct 6, 2010 4:28am Oct 6, 2010 4:28am
I just want to give my two cents worth of opinion. Even though I isn't active in this thread I have been following it on a regular basis. I traded on a live account using Bob's strategy and I can't find ways to express my gratitude towards this system. I only trade primary trade because I'm still in the midst of exploring the others Nonetheless this system has allow me to grow the account size by leaps and bounds month after month.

Just wanna say a big thank you to Bob and all those who made this system such a big success which benefit so much people.
  • #2,678
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:27am Oct 6, 2010 6:27am
Hi Bob,

Thanks for the new indi, TMA. I'm now using it recover my DD. I hedged my EURUSD and other pairs that are in deep DD. I feel like it's a slow motioned bomb so why not use the MPTM Bomb. Lol

I have a feeling that I can survive this.
  • #2,679
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:46am Oct 6, 2010 6:46am
Quoting Radio
the last 2 days I have been able to close out 2 pairs that had been in some DD. The EurCad and Eu still buried. Had to take a couple losses, but I have never felt more confident that I could make it back then with this system.

Looking back and understanding the market Bob showed his experience by jumping ship last week and closing everything. Being new to this system I felt that I really needed to stay in the truly have some lessons with the recovery system.

Taking primary trades and making $$ is the fun part the DD and recovery is the defense...
Thanks, just for the heck of it try TMA and see if this helps delay some of your entrances. So far it is testing well but of course that takes time also. So next time you want a trade compare it with the TMA and let me know what you think.
  • #2,680
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:49am Oct 6, 2010 6:49am
guys Phanti is back ....

how are u doing bros?
gimme some individuals updates : )
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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