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  • #14,401
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:57pm Oct 5, 2010 3:57pm
Quote
Like the way aud/jpy is shapping up.

All timeframes are up.

Hi Lowguy,

It is seems that we have posted our analisys almost at the same time...and we
have the same observations.

Wondering only how did you get this 79.39 level?

For me recent support, which is also a reason why I'm looking at forming hammer with interest, is an area between 80 and 80.50.

Best regards,
Baniu
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #14,402
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:10pm Oct 5, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting Baniu
Hi Lowguy,

It is seems that we have posted our analysis almost at the same time...and we have the same observations.

Wondering only how did you get this 79.39 level?

For me recent support, which is also a reason why I'm looking at forming hammer with interest, is an area between 80 and 80.50.

Best regards,
Baniu
It could be the difference in broker data however the Shooting Star on June 21 is controlling support.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,403
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:36pm Oct 5, 2010 4:36pm
Gold skyrocket and as Strat said, AUD will follow. Its not called a commodity currency for nothing. If you want to long AUD then which pair will you choose?

AUDCAD made a nice hammer on my data, rejected by 20. Same thing on AUDUSD.

I cant get much info from USDCAD in order to choose one of these two AUD pair to set my orders. For the moment USD is weaker than CAD but USDCAD is approaching a support and situation might reverse in the next days. Or not.

This being the case I will trade them both but I will risk only half of my normal risk per pair by reducing the position size with 50%. The cumulative risk per AUD will be my normal one.
  • #14,404
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:49pm Oct 5, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting hcristea
Gold skyrocket and as Strat said, AUD will follow. Its not called a commodity currency for nothing. If you want to long AUD then which pair will you choose?

AUDCAD made a nice hammer on my data, rejected by 20. Same thing on AUDUSD.

I cant get much info from USDCAD in order to choose one of these two AUD pair to set my orders. For the moment USD is weaker than CAD but USDCAD is approaching a support and situation might reverse in the next days. Or not.

This being the case I will trade them both but I will risk only half of my normal risk per...
I was thinking exactly the same thing and have stopped over analysing the situation now! The resistance on AUD/CAD is a big psychological one and it could reverse or stall there for a bit so I'm thinking the following pairs:
AUD/JPY - nice hammer forming and rejected 79.800 support and 20MA.
AUD/USD - nice hammer again and above 20MA again today with boss and big boss agreeing. Not sure on the target here though so I think I'd just go for a 2:1 ratio and take that if it comes off.

Tricky when so many pairs offer temptation......
Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #14,405
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:01pm Oct 5, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting samsonwebdes
I was thinking exactly the same thing and have stopped over analysing the situation now! The resistance on AUD/CAD is a big psychological one and it could reverse or stall there for a bit so I'm thinking the following pairs:
AUD/JPY - nice hammer forming and rejected 79.800 support and 20MA.
AUD/USD - nice hammer again and above 20MA again today with boss and big boss agreeing. Not sure on the target here though so I think I'd just go for a 2:1 ratio and take that if it comes off.

Tricky when so many pairs offer temptation......
Don't forget AUDNZD - a nice triple pip run back to the top
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,406
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:50pm Oct 5, 2010 5:50pm
Hello forum,

I've been following this forum for quite some time now but I don't think I've ever posted any sort of real (or my attempt at real) analysis - so here goes, EurUsd...

First up, big boss. Looks to be in a down trend to me with lower high in Nov/Dec 2009 and lower low in June 2010. However immediate trend is up and that is the direction I'd be looking to trade.

Boss: Up since making a higher low last week of August.

Worker: Very much agreeing with the big boss and boss. Today's bar ended a BUOB after retesting support at ~1.36. I'm tempted to put in a buy stop above the BUOB but looking on the weekly chart at the last time this pair approached this area back in the middle of 2009, there's a lot of bar lows around 1.39 that I'm concerned may act as immediate overhead resistance.

Conclusion: No trade for now, look for possible opportunities when price encounters Monthly upper trendline.

Any differing opinions or criticism welcome!

Cheers

R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,407
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:54pm Oct 5, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting hcristea
Gold skyrocket and as Strat said, AUD will follow. Its not called a commodity currency for nothing. If you want to long AUD then which pair will you choose?

AUDCAD made a nice hammer on my data, rejected by 20. Same thing on AUDUSD.

I cant get much info from USDCAD in order to choose one of these two AUD pair to set my orders. For the moment USD is weaker than CAD but USDCAD is approaching a support and situation might reverse in the next days. Or not.

This being the case I will trade them both but I will risk only half of my normal risk per...

My choice is the AudNzd pair.
Looks the best on my data.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 015 audnzd daily 10-06-10.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #14,408
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:23am Oct 6, 2010 12:23am
Quoting MoneyMaker
My choice is the AudNzd pair.
Looks the best on my data.
I didn't look at the AUD/NZD pair as I don't have a chart open on it. Mainly because the spread is 12 with Alpari and my old days of losing money attempting to scalp ruled this pair out!

It's certainly respected the 20MA with pinpoint accuracy since the end of July so a good shout in my very humble and inexperienced opinion. Only thing I would worry about is the size of that drop yesterday. Would want good confirmation and wait till it has bought back all the pips from yesterdays bar.

I'm very cautious these days!
Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #14,409
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:23am Oct 6, 2010 12:23am
Quoting MoneyMaker
My choice is the AudNzd pair.
Looks the best on my data.
Hi Money,
What is your broker and what time closes the daily candle ?
  • #14,410
  • Oct 6, 2010 1:12am Oct 6, 2010 1:12am
Hi Strat,

Yes, I'm one of those lurker. This is my first post in this thread though I've joined ForexFactory for many years.

Thank you for starting this wonderful thread, as I've gained tremendously after months of studying each of the posts.

I used to be a 'aim-less' trader, looking at various trading systems at the same time, and overload with fundemental information that my little brain cannot cope. Though Price Action is not new to me, it is only with Strat's thread and his strong conviction that I finally manage to stick to only 1 system - PASR.

With PASR, the number of trades I put-on drops, and the success rate goes up. I must say that the biggest lesson learnt over the last few mths is the ability to wait for the right time to put on a trade, rather than the old self of executing a trade with the anticipation (or hoping) for price to move in the right direction.

The second thing that I would like to share in contributing to my turning point in trading is to start a Trade Journel. This is where the info of every trade is put into, including the initial thoughts and after-trade experience. Trust me, this is an important integral part of trading. By putting down the trading plan in writing, you're giving yourself a chance to crystalise the thought process. It helps in
1) Reducing the number of trades (the trigger happy type), as each trade need to be documented with a reason. If there is no good reason, then don't trade.
2) A reflection of failed trades.
3) The consistency of having a trading plan and stick to it.

For those who have not started a Trade Journal, start one today. I'm sure you will benefit from it too. As a contribution to this wonderful thread, I'm more than happy to share the Excel Template of my Trade Journal.

Note: The first worksheet shows the summary of all trades over the months. The other worksheet shows the detail trades for each mth. I've removed the actual trade outcome so as to remove the Pips gain/loss.

I've started on the Path, hope I can continue to stick to it.

Thanks Strat,
AT
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Trade Journal Template.xls   283 KB | 604 downloads
  • #14,411
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:01am Oct 6, 2010 6:01am
Quoting Baniu
Hi Lowguy,

It is seems that we have posted our analisys almost at the same time...and we
have the same observations.

Wondering only how did you get this 79.39 level?

For me recent support, which is also a reason why I'm looking at forming hammer with interest, is an area between 80 and 80.50.

Best regards,
Baniu
Hi baniu,
I've gotten the 79.39 S/R mainly from all these points from the daily..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-jpy sr.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #14,412
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:27am Oct 6, 2010 7:27am
Quoting lowguy
Hi baniu,
I've gotten the 79.39 S/R mainly from all these points from the daily..
Also close enough to the Big Round Number at 80.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #14,413
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:53am Oct 6, 2010 7:53am
Quoting MoneyMaker
My choice is the AudNzd pair.
Looks the best on my data.
Make sure you check the Boss and Big Boss first!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,414
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:24am Oct 6, 2010 8:24am
hi does anyone have data on usd/sgd?

would appreciate a weekly and monthly chart if anyone has one.

thanks
  • #14,415
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:25am Oct 6, 2010 9:25am
Quoting strat
Make sure you check the Boss and Big Boss first!

I won't do anything on this pair until I see a strong close above the 3230ish area. Until that ceiling is broke, so is my trigger finger.
If the 2830 area doesn't hold as support then all bets are off anyways.


Quoting extraneo
Hi Money,
What is your broker and what time closes the daily candle ?

I use MBT for my charts, they close midnight my time, which coincides nicely with my work schedule. So i can look at charts for a cpl hours before heading to bed.
  • #14,416
  • Oct 6, 2010 9:34am Oct 6, 2010 9:34am
i red many people talking about nice hammer on AUDJPY daily.

Yes, the shape looks perfect and tail touches the 20 but as per my understanding of the thread and in general a hammer is meaningful only when formed after a downward trend and currently price is in a range. and if price is not ranging at the moment than it should be a hang man not a hammer. please correct me if i am wrong.

So i am waiting for a more precise price action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
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  • #14,417
  • Edited 10:05am Oct 6, 2010 10:01am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting strat
Make sure you check the Boss and Big Boss first!
Thanks, Strat. Great "shot over the bow" after prematurely setting a buy stop bounce off the 20 on the Worker for a move to the top after seeing the wick on yesterdays Worker candle

Only then did I LOOK AT and understand the strong SS candle message on the Boss from last week saying "caution..wait"...closed the trade and will wait for the worker to signal PASR to the up side to retest the top (OR reverse)...damage minimal.

Trading with the B and BB trend..seems so much easier. Message received.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd worker.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd boss.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #14,418
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:05am Oct 6, 2010 10:05am
Quoting MoneyMaker
I won't do anything on this pair until I see a strong close above the 3230ish area. Until that ceiling is broke, so is my trigger finger.
If the 2830 area doesn't hold as support then all bets are off anyways.
I think Strat wants to say that BB and B are not aligned.
In addition, there is SS on the B.
  • #14,419
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:59am Oct 6, 2010 10:59am
Hi Khurr@m,

Corrective move doesn't have to be huge, what is important, is that this hammer (05.10.2010) has nice size, is situated at significant support (so we
may assume that it is not "bond" candle) and that immediate trend is up.

Quote
in general a hammer is meaningful only when formed after a downward trend and currently price is in a range.

And I don't understand why you would like to go short here, waiting for hanging man. Are you suprised that there is no hanging man? Please make it more clear.

Quote
if price is not ranging at the moment than it should be a hang man not a hammer. please correct me if i am wrong.

Take care,
Baniu
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #14,420
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:36pm Oct 6, 2010 12:36pm
Hi Bainu,

i am new to forex and this thread. right now i am just trying to learn the basics. I have red that a candle with a real body at the upper end and a lower tail during an down trend is called a hammer(bullish) and the same candle during an uptrend is called hang man(bearish).

Now price is ranging for last fifteen days although before that it was in an uptrend. For me now the trend has gone. during this period there are five dojis on my chart sufficient to tell me that market is not sure what to do next. also see the boss chart last two candles are dojis. So, i am waiting for some more confirmation before going either Long or Short

No, i am not looking for a hangman

Regards,

[quote=Baniu;4077470]Hi Khurr@m,

Corrective move doesn't have to be huge, what is important, is that this hammer (05.10.2010) has nice size, is situated at significant support (so we
may assume that it is not "bond" candle) and that immediate trend is up.



And I don't understand why you would like to go short here, waiting for hanging man. Are you suprised that there is no hanging man? Please make it more clear.
.
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