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Aboonacci System - for EUR/USD prediction

  • #1,581
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:52am Oct 5, 2010 11:52am
And so babi in post 1501 says the 38.2 rule indicates down and then it goes up 200 pips. Why then did he even bother to post such a chart if he (supposedly knows) the daily moves? Why did he not just tell us to go long? Or did he NOT KNOW!
  • #1,582
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:59am Oct 5, 2010 11:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Madmax1952
babi said that the 38.2 rule indicated a downtrend. All I have seen is explosion to the upside after the 38.2 rule. Am I missing the bigger picture? See post 1501 where he said trend was down. WTF?


Quoting leemonk
Two charts attached. Should be pretty clear from the charts my view.

Lee
max is correct.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1528

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1514

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1504

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1501

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1497

from the posts

- it could work it might not.
- it might be 38.2 it might be 61.8
- 32.8 could be to 76.4 or 100
- the downtrend i pointed out in a picture is now not a downtrend because if you were in my group then you would have known
- i mentioned a buy to the chat group with a reason because "it went up"
- backtest upto january and see the results from the calculator are appalling
- test june to see you dont get a winning trade until 8 days into the month
- read the rules - this system cannot fail.

I have used the calculator today there were 2 losers and 1 winner. That is with the correct settings.
  • #1,583
  • Edited 12:08pm Oct 5, 2010 12:00pm | Edited 12:08pm
I am wrong many times, but I am not trying to teach someone else. And, when I am wrong I will be the first to admit it. Why did babi tell us the 38.2 rule (in post 1501) indicated the trend was down? and then disappeared when he was (major) wrong?

Remember, The purpose of that post was to show us how the "rule of 38.2" rejected price. OK, so what, It made us NO PIPS! And was MAJOR wrong! After his example price did go down 50+ pips (OK) but the TREND did not GO DOWN as he stated from his example of the rule of 38.2. IT SKYROCKETED UP!!!

So How do we KNOW Fail or Fail to Fail babi? or When to trust you?
  • #1,584
  • Edited 12:22pm Oct 5, 2010 12:13pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting Madmax1952
I am wrong many times, but I am not trying to teach someone else. And, when I am wrong I will be the first to admit it. Why did babi tell us the 38.2 rule (in post 1501) indicated the trend was down? and then disappeared when he was (major) wrong?

Remember, The purpose of that post was to show us how the "rule of 38.2" rejected price. OK, so what, It made us NO PIPS!
Hi Madmax1952,

I think the issue here is about communication. The rule Bobi tried to explain in that post is a little ambiguous. To my own understanding, he said for the trend to continue downwards, then 38.2% of the phase the price just tried to exit downward must not be broken back upwards else no continuation of the downtrend.

The ambiguity I see there is where he said the rule will fail if the baselevel is broken by just 2 or 3 pips. Is this broken downward or broken back upward again? So the sentence "If Base Level is misplaced only for 2 or 3 pips then this rule might fail." needs to be expalined by Bobi for clarity.

P.S. Also, he said MIGHT fail not WILL fail. So please relax and allow him explain if he wants to.
  • #1,585
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:22pm Oct 5, 2010 12:22pm
I was beginning to think I was the only (believer in this concept) that was not "getting it."

I agree there is a semantic problem due to language which has caused much of the turmoil from page 30-90. Perhaps there is someone in the chat group who could act as a "proxy" to explain to the rest of us in common and understandable language?
  • #1,586
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:24pm Oct 5, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting aebab
Abonacci System is not talking about the past . It is only about future .
Your system is based on a very simple indicator that's been available for a long time. Why are you posting "Power Templates" instead of just sharing the indicator so people can do it for themselves?

These are historical SR levels, so it is not "only about the future", it is based solely on past data.

Here's a chart with the "Power Levels" (in black) marked off. The indicator automatically draws the new monthly levels on the first day of the month. (this chart has some other levels I use which are quite good. they are all free for people to try if they like)

Anyway, none of this requires complicated software, templates, or needs to be that mysterious.

I'm not saying you are doing anything wrong showing people basic trading techniques, but it shouldn't be described as a new trading system when it's based on other people's prior work. And it shouldn't be described as some kind of magical predictive formula when it's not.

I can post the indicator if you like, or you can post yours.

either way, it would be good if you are straight forward with people about how this works. it's very simple.

cheers
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  • #1,587
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:38pm Oct 5, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting Madmax1952
I am wrong many times, but I am not trying to teach someone else. And, when I am wrong I will be the first to admit it. Why did babi tell us the 38.2 rule (in post 1501) indicated the trend was down? and then disappeared when he was (major) wrong?

Remember, The purpose of that post was to show us how the "rule of 38.2" rejected price. OK, so what, It made us NO PIPS! And was MAJOR wrong! After his example price did go down 50+ pips (OK) but the TREND did not GO DOWN as he stated from his example of the rule of 38.2. IT SKYROCKETED UP!!!

So...
Dear Trader,
I think you should be new to this thread ! Why you think I was wrong ? I mentioned if it wants to go down trend , then it should not pass 38.2%. As long as the price can not pass this point the trend is down . Like last night . Wasn't it? The reversal happened because the journey was not finished . Power 4 that will be uploaded after 1 hour will prove why I recommended the group to go up.
Did the rule fail? when it passed again , many went long for breaking point and they put their tp to 100% again . Don't you think that you did not get it ? Do you expect me to be in forum all the day ?!! Even right now , rule of 38.2% is a big resistance and if broken it should meet 76.4 and then 100%.We should think about the words we are using . "Disappeared !!"
See the picture attached and may be you need to study fibonacci trading.
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Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,588
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:42pm Oct 5, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting Madmax1952
I was beginning to think I was the only (believer in this concept) that was not "getting it."

I agree there is a semantic problem due to language which has caused much of the turmoil from page 30-90. Perhaps there is someone in the chat group who could act as a "proxy" to explain to the rest of us in common and understandable language?
Max, that is the point.

its not down to the language. its because there are so many interpretations of what bobi orginally brought have now spawned.

- bobi originally brought 1 concept which was the blue, white fibos off the monthly phase template.

- then a calculator came along.

- then a 74 pip rule came along.

these are the 3 "original" things bobi has introduced.

my problem is i like to follow a system, one which is not discretionary. one that can be called a system because there are rules. if you do not have rules you cannot call it a system and thus you cannot test for results going back nor going forward - so how could you tell if it works?

i have tested the calculator going back the whole year. the results are no more favourable than the other threads on this forum for breakouts.

check june for instance.

a lot of people are getting sucked into this because it came to 1 pip here or one pip there. if you look closely this is because it was either a fib or camarilla pivot.

bobis calculation for the baseline had also changed from using the whole month for august and september to using the last day of the month for october. Bobi - can you answer why you did this?

people that are saying because it was in an uptrend.... - Max was trying to learn. what use is a system "developer & thread owner" showing us a picture of a downtrend and then it run up massively by 200 pips. What use is this thread to anyone if we all have to join his skype group? what use is this thread to forex factory apart from the visitor traffic? are we actively supporting this guy to go off and have his own group? we have seen members of that group come in here and not actually use what bobi is doing (who should be sharing the information bobi is supplying)

its all very well being clever after the fact and showing us your interpretation but the guy was trying to learn off what he thought was a knowledgeable system owner and you can see the result for yourself.

before you all leap. think about it. you are using your interpretations in your own systems. this is not a system. we have umpteen rules. fabrications, nonsensical musings etc.

look at the other threads on the board. it is clear how to use their systems. they work - people have their own interpretations but there are CLEAR rules.

this system that cannot lose.

come on bobi! post your live calls in here for all of us. not just your skype membership group - or there is no point in this thread being here.
  • #1,589
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:43pm Oct 5, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting Madmax1952
I post #1501 babi said "When price touches 100% level it should not go higher than 38.2" and yet it did even though it broke the base level by many pips (which should indicate lower also) and then it rallied up almost 200 pips? How do we know? Failed or "failed to fail?"

where is your 100% level?....post a chart to explain where you are confused...you have probably mis-drawn the fib lines
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,590
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:50pm Oct 5, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting Fudomyo
Your system is based on a very simple indicator that's been available for a long time. Why are you posting "Power Templates" instead of just sharing the indicator so people can do it for themselves?

These are historical SR levels, so it is not "only about the future", it is based solely on past data.

Here's a chart with the "Power Levels" (in black) marked off. The indicator automatically draws the new monthly levels on the first day of the month. (this chart has some other levels I use which are quite good. they are all free for people...
Could you please give us whole story about the current month with that indicators ? And could you please let us know when we should put our TP or SL ?
-Can you setup a system with this indicator and let the others obey that system ?
- is it a rule based system . We have rules here. I think you are new with this system and you are judging incorrectly .
-Please let me know why price is stopped at 1.3849 regarding your indicator or system .
- Is it pre-determined from beginning of the month that this price will be a resistance?All who are using this system , they know this level as a main resistance from beginning of the month and even they know the other main resistance will be 1.3975. Does it say alike?
regards
Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,591
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:54pm Oct 5, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting iamtruth
Max, that is the point.

its not down to the language. its because there are so many interpretations of what bobi orginally brought have now spawned.

- bobi originally brought 1 concept which was the blue, white fibos off the monthly phase template.

- then a calculator came along.

- then a 74 pip rule came along.

these are the 3 "original" things bobi has introduced.

my problem is i like to follow a system, one which is not discretionary. one that can be called a system because there are rules. if you do not have rules you cannot...
Dear trader,
See how you misunderstood the subject . Can you please let me know how you can use calculator for whole the year ? it was only for last month . even you can not use it for August . Really you read all the subject???Still we have not uploaded new calculator for the current month and you used it for whole year?!!
Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,592
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:55pm Oct 5, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting iamtruth

i have tested the calculator going back the whole year. the results are no more favourable than the other threads on this forum for breakouts.

check june for instance.
I would love to backtest this system for a years worth of data but as we only have a template for each month, August, September and October, would you care to tell us how you did it?

Quote
bobis calculation for the baseline had also changed from using the whole month for august and september to using the last day of the month for october. Bobi - can you answer why you did this?
I'm pretty sure Bobi hasn't mentioned how he calculates the baseline so where did you get that from?
  • #1,593
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:00pm Oct 5, 2010 1:00pm
Please download the attachment . Its Abonacci Power4 template for October.
Rule of 23.6% is equivalent to rule of 38.2% . Its used for longer term trading in comparison to power3 .
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl abonacci_oct2010_power4.tpl   8 KB | 516 downloads
Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,594
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:00pm Oct 5, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Fudomyo



...I can post the indicator if you like, or you can post yours. ...


cheers
Hi Fudomyo!

So, which one is your indicator? Could you share it?, I would like to see it working.

Thanks so much.
  • #1,595
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:02pm Oct 5, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting aebab
Please download the attachment . Its Abonacci Power4 template for October.
Rule of 23.6% is equivalent to rule of 38.2% . Its used for longer term trading in comparison to power3 .

Thanks Bobi!! I was waiting for it, thanks so much!!
  • #1,596
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:03pm Oct 5, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting iamtruth

I have used the calculator today there were 2 losers and 1 winner. That is with the correct settings.
Would you mind showing us the 2 losers and 1 winner that you got from the calculator, because I don't understand how you managed it. So you didn't take the 2 breakout buys that both reached target?
  • #1,597
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm
Hi folks...

1) 61.8 was not broken....& 76.4 acted as a solid support...

2) PA penetrated the Base Level at 1.3673 decisively... (DarkViolet color)

3) 38.2 acted as resistance recently, was also pierced through strongly with a solid bar upwards...

4) Clear uptrend...


Just my 2 cts
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  • #1,598
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting aebab
Please download the attachment . Its Abonacci Power4 template for October.
Rule of 23.6% is equivalent to rule of 38.2% . Its used for longer term trading in comparison to power3 .
Thanks Bobi.
Who are the people that can assist us with the new template??
  • #1,599
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm Oct 5, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting luckylady
I would love to backtest this system for a years worth of data but as we only have a template for each month, August, September and October, would you care to tell us how you did it?

I'm pretty sure Bobi hasn't mentioned how he calculates the baseline so where did you get that from?
why haven't we got the templates for july, june, may, april, march, february, january of this year?
  • #1,600
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm Oct 5, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting aebab
Please download the attachment . Its Abonacci Power4 template for October.
Rule of 23.6% is equivalent to rule of 38.2% . Its used for longer term trading in comparison to power3 .
Thanks. Bobi, Phase become 220 pips? Baseline is 1.3670?
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