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AUD/USD

  • #23,921
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:40pm Oct 4, 2010 10:40pm
i wasn't expecting interest rates to be changed..but i also didn't expect such a big drop so fast..lol

i'd like to see the aussie continue dropping
  • #23,922
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:44pm Oct 4, 2010 10:44pm
Negative interest on AUD/JPY was bleeding me dry.

That beng said, I dont think this was a trend changing event. Still quite a few stops on a breach of .98.... but we'll see.
  • #23,923
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:45pm Oct 4, 2010 10:45pm
time to buy

expect the big profit next
  • #23,924
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:46pm Oct 4, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting Redeemed1
RUMOR is out...NO rate increase, but will evaluate climate for 2011

Like I said 27 hours ago, and redsworld ripped on me pretty good. I hope he paid attention and made some green.
  • #23,925
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:56pm Oct 4, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Like I said 27 hours ago, and redsworld ripped on me pretty good. I hope he paid attention and made some green.
redeemed! lol


i love the quote you have under your name (fast dimes)
  • #23,926
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:56pm Oct 4, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting Redeemed1
Like I said 27 hours ago, and redsworld ripped on me pretty good. I hope he paid attention and made some green.
Well looking at precursors... i.e. trade balance for one, it was quite easy to tell that there weren't in a position to raise rates.

It was pure hype.
  • #23,927
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:57pm Oct 4, 2010 10:57pm
The RBA decision could really hurt AUD. The recent high of AUD/USD at .9749 was built on the back of dollar weakness AND AUD strength. The RBA has signaled that perhaps that strength has been somewhat overstated.

A possible return to 76.4 fib of the overall move from .65 to .98 at .8925 must be a real possibility.

Should set up a great long if it gets there.
  • #23,928
  • Oct 4, 2010 11:01pm Oct 4, 2010 11:01pm
I wonder how much profit the RBA made …probably more than me.

  • #23,929
  • Oct 4, 2010 11:18pm Oct 4, 2010 11:18pm
I'd think the .97482 top is good for some time. The white fib fits too well IMHO - going for at least .953 for now. There's been a lot of shorting/selling, and the pressure's gotta be relieved by heading lower and seeing where the buyers are.
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  • #23,930
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:03am Oct 5, 2010 2:03am
Quoting glopfel
i expect no chance in rates tonight by RBA, thus a nice fall in AUD, from what i've experienced through my forex trading life, always expect what the majority not expects.

i'm not getting a trade relying on this but still this is what i think its gonna happen, just my 2c.

happy trading.
Quoting the-game
Experience FTW :-)
  • #23,931
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:36am Oct 5, 2010 2:36am
I'd be looking for the bottom of the trend channel for an overnight long position to show up in the next few days.

The pip movement relative to other currencies might seem large but for this pair this really isn't that dramatic.

If there is a bias to a rate move to 4.75% at least you know now what the exchange rate should be.

There's no indication this pair is going down dramatically anytime soon, with China's demand for commodities, the three largest mining co's having two years to extract as much as they want without paying the new commie tax, all the investment they are currently putting into their infrastructure to take advantage of it, and the US Fed looking to do anything it can to keep the economy going, ie., QE, ie., USD devaluation.
  • #23,932
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:39am Oct 5, 2010 2:39am
still hold my short from 97 area as posted before...

H4 LTL broke,,,n goes to LTL Daily next?...

let c 9400-9125 for this week....if she can

good luck guys



g
  • #23,933
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:50am Oct 5, 2010 2:50am
Quoting grashid
still hold my short from 97 area as posted before...

H4 LTL broke,,,n goes to LTL Daily next?...

let c 9400-9125 for this week....if she can

good luck guys



g

Not bad, although you'd pansy out around .9650


jkin.
  • #23,934
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:45am Oct 5, 2010 3:45am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Peter-FX
I wonder how much profit the RBA made …probably more than me.
I guess I'm not the only one who thought that!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,935
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:16am Oct 5, 2010 4:16am
Quoting nightingale
time to buy

expect the big profit next
Nice Call
  • #23,936
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:20am Oct 5, 2010 4:20am
Quoting domino
lol this aussy is a beast.

I agree now

It killed my twice
  • #23,937
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:30am Oct 5, 2010 4:30am
Quoting damo
I guess I'm not the only one who thought that!

Why else would they let everyone think the rate is going up, when it wasn’t going to?

  • #23,938
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:44am Oct 5, 2010 4:44am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
I hear ya!

Now they are jawboning about a November rise. What do you think?

I think they won't have the balls to up it before Christmas, but then come Feb or March and the credit card debt figures come out they'll yell "OMG, look at those numbers, better raise rates". Knowing full well they were going to do that anyway.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #23,939
  • Edited 5:43am Oct 5, 2010 4:53am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting TheTopBloke
I'd be looking for the bottom of the trend channel for an overnight long position to show up in the next few days.

The pip movement relative to other currencies might seem large but for this pair this really isn't that dramatic.

If there is a bias to a rate move to 4.75% at least you know now what the exchange rate should be.

There's no indication this pair is going down dramatically anytime soon, with China's demand for commodities, the three largest mining co's having two years to extract as much as they want without paying the new commie...

I agree. I expect this bitch going maybe to .9490 -.9410 (perhaps even .9260 to close the gap) but I doubt it will fall much more (for now).

Remember that .9410 is a super-strong support (previous top for months: from november 2009 until april 2010).
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #23,940
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:58am Oct 5, 2010 5:58am
Quoting damo
I hear ya!

Now they are jawboning about a November rise. What do you think?

I think they won't have the balls to up it before Christmas, but then come Feb or March and the credit card debt figures come out they'll yell "OMG, look at those numbers, better raise rates". Knowing full well they were going to do that anyway.

My thinking is, it will go up next month (November), but what you need to watch is the unemployment. If the unemployment goes down…more people in work, more people spending. And of course don’t forget the spending over Christmas; they will need to curb that a little, and they wouldn’t want to be putting the rate up in December. So everybody will expect a rise next month. When it happens, it will come as no surprise and there will be little price action.
Unless of course they want to make a killing again next month.
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