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Aboonacci System - for EUR/USD prediction

  • #1,501
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:46am Oct 5, 2010 2:46am
Quoting aebab
In the picture you can see how the rule of 38.2% is obeyed last nigh . If price tends to go down and make a new low , then that level should not be broken again .
If Base Level is misplaced only for 2 or 3 pips then this rule might fail .
In another word all traders around the world obeyed this rule to keep continuation of the down trend .
Still do you think Base Level and Abonacci system and this rule are jactitations and that was utterly accidental?!! Or you think that level is perfectly discovered and...
how about today? 38.2 already broken
  • #1,502
  • Edited 2:52am Oct 5, 2010 2:50am | Edited 2:52am
I am confused about your rule 38.2. In your example (the first time we came down to the baseline) you stated that "When price touches 100% level (we actually penetrated it by a couple pips) it should not go higher than 38.2% and the rule of 38.2 worked well.

The second time we broke the baseline by 20+ pips and you stated "If base level is misplaced only 2 pips then rule of 38.2 fails. You means fails to go back up? or fails to hold the 38.2 level if it does go up?

I ask because we just retraced back up to the 38.2 again which means the rule DID NOT fail, or are we now going higher since it failed to fail?

Because we are now going up and there is no continuation of the downtrend. You can see my confusion. I know it is clear to you but I don't think it is clear to many of us (yet). So is the uptrend still in play or are we going down?
  • #1,503
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:59am Oct 5, 2010 2:59am
Quoting Madmax1952
I am confused about your rule 38.2. In your example (the first time we came down to the baseline) you stated that "When price touches 100% level (we actually penetrated it by a couple pips) it should not go higher than 38.2% and the rule of 38.2 worked well.

The second time we broke the baseline by 20+ pips and you stated "If base level is misplaced only 2 pips then rule of 38.2 fails. You means fails to go back up? or fails to hold the 38.2 level if it does go up?

I ask because we just retraced back up to the 38.2 again which means the...
When I mentioned only 2 pips I mean that level which was playing as a strong resistance last night , was exactly 38.2% . Suppose Base Level was 1.3670(3 pips lower) . Then you can not call that point 38.2% because it was already broken .
When 38.2 is broken from down to upward , it will meet 76.4 % and then 100% . This is the rule .
from upside also the same . Today price could not come below 61.8% (which is equivalent to 38.2%) so it came up and could break 38.2% . so we will expect to meet 76.4% and then 100%.
As I described before , to keep continuation of down trend , price should not come above 38.2% and if it happens , it means traders are trying to go long.
Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,504
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:04am Oct 5, 2010 3:04am
i think i should go back to #1 calculator and power 3 template original rules. more simple and effective than any new rules
  • #1,505
  • Edited 4:48am Oct 5, 2010 3:10am | Edited 4:48am
Quoting aebab
When I mentioned only 2 pips I mean that level which was playing as a strong resistance last night , was exactly 38.2% . Suppose Base Level was 1.3670(3 pips lower) . Then you can not call that point 38.2% because it was already broken .
When 38.2 is broken from down to upward , it will meet 76.4 % and then 100% . This is the rule .
from upside also the same . Today price could not come below 61.8% (which is equivalent to 38.2%) so it came up and could break 38.2% . so we will expect to meet 76.4% and then 100%.

the short generated by the calculator failed to meet TP today but the buy order has hit 76.4 a moment ago.

my question is this...does it mean the old calculator is no longer suitable to trade october?

i asked this question just to retain my belive that i understand how the calculator is applied although, today is the only day i experienced loss from the signals of the calculator.
...meanwhile the loss from the short trade have been covered by the long trade because i doubled my lot for the long trade.

Correction

I just took another closer look at the result generated by the calculator again and I realized it was my fault...i felt the TP was too small, so i extended my TP below the first TP of 1.3665 to 1.3630 but price made a low of 1.3636 and turned upside.
if i had set my tp accordingly, the short trade would have been a profit except for those who choose the second TP.

this is why it is advisable to always target the first TP and then re-enter for the second TP when the BO2 is triggered.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,506
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:15am Oct 5, 2010 3:15am
Thank you for your prompt reply. Still confused. Why did the 38,2 level hold the first time and indicated down. And when the base line was broken by even more the second time price went way up beyond the 38.2. Is this what you meant by a rule 38.2 failure?

So how do we know when the first touch (and hold) of the 38.2 indicated a downtrend and then price skyrockets up 160 pips? You can see my confusion and how I might have lost huge pips (if I traded) and would have missed huge potential gain on the up move.

How do we know when it will fail or fail to fail?
  • #1,507
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:25am Oct 5, 2010 3:25am
Another successful long trade hit the target
  • #1,508
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:26am Oct 5, 2010 3:26am
Quoting aebab
When I mentioned only 2 pips I mean that level which was playing as a strong resistance last night , was exactly 38.2% . Suppose Base Level was 1.3670(3 pips lower) . Then you can not call that point 38.2% because it was already broken .
When 38.2 is broken from down to upward , it will meet 76.4 % and then 100% . This is the rule .
from upside also the same . Today price could not come below 61.8% (which is equivalent to 38.2%) so it came up and could break 38.2% . so we will expect to meet 76.4% and then 100%.
As I described before , to keep continuation...

the monthly sentiment is well above daily pivot...so i thought earlier in the day that the bulls would be favored today.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,509
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:31am Oct 5, 2010 3:31am
Quoting Madmax1952
Thank you for your prompt reply. Still confused. Why did the 38,2 level hold the first time and indicated down. And when the base line was broken by even more the second time price went way up beyond the 38.2. Is this what you meant by a rule 38.2 failure?

So how do we know when the first touch (and hold) of the 38.2 indicated a downtrend and then price skyrockets up 160 pips? You can see my confusion and how I might have lost huge pips (if I traded) and would have missed huge potential gain on the up move.

How do we know when it will fail or...
if you had used the calculator with NY close, you would have had positive trades....the calculator seems to work hand-in-hand with the rules...pls always use the calculator to set up your trades untill you have a good grasp of the rules.

the first TP of the short trade generated by the calculator hit and now, the first TP for the bull side has been hit...
use the calculator untill you have mastered the rules.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,510
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:33am Oct 5, 2010 3:33am
Quoting yusuf84
i think i should go back to #1 calculator and power 3 template original rules. more simple and effective than any new rules

that is a good decision ...the calculator calculates based on the rules.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,511
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:37am Oct 5, 2010 3:37am
I would have used the calculator but I thought that was only for last month and was waiting for the one for October.
  • #1,512
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:38am Oct 5, 2010 3:38am
Quoting Madmax1952
I would have used the calculator but I thought that was only for last month and was waiting for the one for October.
aebab said we can still use the old calculator with the oct template.
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,513
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:41am Oct 5, 2010 3:41am
Quoting Madmax1952
Thank you for your prompt reply. Still confused. Why did the 38,2 level hold the first time and indicated down. And when the base line was broken by even more the second time price went way up beyond the 38.2. Is this what you meant by a rule 38.2 failure?

So how do we know when the first touch (and hold) of the 38.2 indicated a downtrend and then price skyrockets up 160 pips? You can see my confusion and how I might have lost huge pips (if I traded) and would have missed huge potential gain on the up move.

How do we know when it will fail...
That broken means failure . Yes that is. With that template you can not realize the reason to but . In the Abonacci Chat group I mentioned a buy to the group and reason . I have provided a template that can help you for this purpose . Please wait until the group be taught the new template to help you . They have new template and I am teaching them . Today it will be available to all of you . Then you can see why price should fly again up to 100% area like last night.
Learn to walk before you run
  • #1,514
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:42am Oct 5, 2010 3:42am
With all the past confusion in this thread I guess I missed that. So now that we have hit the 100% should we look for a fib retracement to reenter long?
  • #1,515
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:46am Oct 5, 2010 3:46am
Quoting aebab
That broken means failure . Yes that is. With that template you can not realize the reason to but . In the Abonacci Chat group I mentioned a buy to the group and reason . I have provided a template that can help you for this purpose . Please wait until the group be taught the new template to help you . They have new template and I am teaching them . Today it will be available to all of you . Then you can see why price should fly again up to 100% area like last night.

Bobi, why did you remove me from the group chat? or i should ask what are the conditions to remain in the group?
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,516
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:51am Oct 5, 2010 3:51am
Quoting Madmax1952
With all the past confusion in this thread I guess I missed that. So now that we have hit the 100% should we look for a fib retracement to reenter long?
BO2 for today according to the calculator is @ 1.3796 and the TP is 1.3845
i expected it to hit TP
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #1,517
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:55am Oct 5, 2010 3:55am
Quoting simplecoders
Another successful long trade hit the target
Hi Simplecoders

What is your stop loss ?? 30 pips ??


Regards
  • #1,518
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:56am Oct 5, 2010 3:56am
Libery71, when we hit target BO2, will this not also indicate we will rise to the top of the next (new) phase (after a retrace)?
  • #1,519
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:57am Oct 5, 2010 3:57am
Liberty what is the close and the monthly values you added to the calc because i dont get the same result.
many thanks
  • #1,520
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:57am Oct 5, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Madmax1952
Libery71, when we hit target BO2, will this not also indicate we will rise to the top of the next (new) phase (after a retrace)?

you are correct...we are looking forward to it
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
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