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Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #1,061
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:37am Oct 1, 2010 8:37am
Quoting Deusomega
BWILC doesn't advocate stop losses in the traditional sense true... But he most certainly advocates cutting losses.

Rather you have risk % you want to assume and you average into a position according to his grid parameters. Traditional stop losses make no sense when you trade according to BWILC. If you were trading primarily on fundmental drivers would an intraday stop be the most logical choice?

Also not trying to be confrontational rather just stating my opinion.
its actually more than the stops.. it is reverse of basically everything that I do .. it guesses at entry points so when price moves in your direction your not fully capitalized into the position and as price moves against you .. you are fully capitalized into the position.. this makes losses bigger than wins or atleast nullifies any real edge.. also fundamental.. in bwilc .. doesnt involve being in direction of ird.. its a subjective fundamental analysis that could make you sell/buy against the ird because you feel its the fundamental direction.. also.. the efficiency is low .. your not injecting capital into the market fast enough and drawing enough interest to repay excess losses.. also .. the market doesnt have to be moving in your direction for you to enter.. bwilc doesnt enter on breaks it enters by fading.. basically its taking a fundamental edge and watering it down with grid trading .. which is proven to fail.. and ive tried to make grid trading work.. ive tried to beat it from every angle.. and you can to some extent if your using a break grid.. but bwilc doesnt..
my opinion...
  • #1,062
  • Oct 1, 2010 9:42am Oct 1, 2010 9:42am
Quoting domino
its actually more than the stops.. it is reverse of basically everything that I do .. it guesses at entry points so when price moves in your direction your not fully capitalized into the position and as price moves against you .. you are fully capitalized into the position.. this makes losses bigger than wins or atleast nullifies any real edge.. also fundamental.. in bwilc .. doesnt involve being in direction of ird.. its a subjective fundamental analysis that could make you sell/buy against the ird because you feel its the fundamental direction.....
Every trading approach guesses at entries. He talks at length about how interest rate differentials influence currencies and how usually its best to be in the same direction as the ird. In fact its #1 in his list of primary movers of currencies.

His own words:

"Although the interest rate plays a definite role, other factors like risk, news and
expectations may overshadow the day-to-day capital flows to and from a country. "


"Interest rates are very important in the life of a currency trader. They are probably the
biggest driver behind medium term trends and understanding interest rates will give
you a big advantage."

But anyways your thread is a good one and I've enjoyed reading it so far.
  • #1,063
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:18am Oct 1, 2010 10:18am
Quoting domino
we are late to the party.. the original breakout was higher im just jumping into examples and showing how to trade them
So you are saying the entry was much higher? Is it possible to see a chart on that?
Quote
3-4+
gapped order flow is taken into consideration.. H + is min.
.

3-4 sounds good.

How does gapped flow considered? As a stronger S/R ?

H+ sounds too high, like the GBP/AUD one was only B, right ?


Quote
interest rates are generally all you need the rest is figured into the interest rates.
I have to disagree. How would you then explain the movement of pairs with similar or tight interest rate differentials ? Fisher effect as I said earlier explains a lot but not all. In my opinion.


Quote
BWILC is a fail as there is no stops...
BWILC does say no stops but helps you be accountable to you account MTM rather than per trade MTM. Like above different opinion.


Quote
all terms come from the same function i see orderflow build long on dropping price and price takes sloped angle to sz .. volume is seen as usually dieing off as it finds support and is rejected.....
.

Ok so we use VSA + order flow?
  • #1,064
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:22am Oct 1, 2010 10:22am
Quoting domino
dividend re-investment program

and no comment
Looked up DRIP, seems to be quite famous in Canada. Assuming you are canadian too

Anyway, focusing on stocks with a dividend return and looking at their management, market growth etc.
  • #1,065
  • Edited 2:12pm Oct 1, 2010 10:33am | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting domino
its actually more than the stops.. it is reverse of basically everything that I do .. it guesses at entry points so when price moves in your direction your not fully capitalized into the position and as price moves against you .. you are fully capitalized into the position.. this makes losses bigger than wins or atleast nullifies any real edge.. also fundamental.. in bwilc .. doesnt involve being in direction of ird.. its a subjective fundamental analysis that could make you sell/buy against the ird because you feel its the fundamental direction.....
Domino , have to go with Deus on this one. Here is one point he dint take up. I have to disagree with the capital part. BWILC advocates a pyramid approach ie lesser size of capital as the price moves in your direction. This is in opposition to a normal reverse pyramid approach of entering a small position and adding to it - the statement applies to that.

Entering on a fade has its own inherent advantage as does entering on a break does. A false break is one of them , another being better price on entry.

I have seen your other thread on grid trading, if you see I posted the last post on it. Never heard back from you

Just a request, as we all are entitled to opinions, it is better to leave the BWILC matter at rest.


EDIT: looking at NU, wat abt you?
  • #1,066
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:34pm Oct 1, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Domino , have to go with Deus on this one. Here is one point he dint take up. I have to disagree with the capital part. BWILC advocates a pyramid approach ie lesser size of capital as the price moves in your direction. This is in opposition to a normal reverse pyramid approach of entering a small position and adding to it - the statement applies to that.
so your telling me you build into the position as it moves with you... ok im good with that.. i thought it was the opposite.. I never read BWILC but ive seen xaron trade.. and he fade as it moves against him..

Quote
Entering on a fade has its own inherent advantage as does entering on a break does. A false break is one of them , another being better price on entry.
but i just dont understand the idea of spreading the capital and adding while losing.. which is what I was thinking BWILC does.. if price is a fake break it will pull against the next resistance zone fail and break.. and ill get a higher price.. whose to say its a fake break or not you never know till it happens..
Quote
I have seen your other thread on grid trading, if you see I posted the last post on it. Never heard back from you
that thread was seening if I could make grid trading work.. lol i was bored haha but i did discover it will work with breaks .. but then i was like why if im already trading breaks.
Quote
Just a request, as we all are entitled to opinions, it is better to leave the BWILC matter at rest.


EDIT: looking at NU, wat abt you?

all i know is what ive seen xaron do .. and its a mean way to blow out an account so maybe ill try to find a copy to read..
  • #1,067
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:48pm Oct 1, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting vicky_ag
So you are saying the entry was much higher? Is it possible to see a chart on that?
yeah ill post it when i get home
.
Quote
3-4 sounds good.

How does gapped flow considered? As a stronger S/R ?

H+ sounds too high, like the GBP/AUD one was only B, right ?
gapped order flow is good if its against your position.. and bad if its with you your position. gbp aud was a B because it had already eaten some orderflow clusters.
  • #1,068
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:07pm Oct 1, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting domino
so your telling me you build into the position as it moves with you... ok im good with that.. i thought it was the opposite.. I never read BWILC but ive seen xaron trade.. and he fade as it moves against him..
but i just dont understand the idea of spreading the capital and adding while losing..
If following BWILC you use the median grid as a context creator aka all it does is give you a comfort zone on current price. It's not a forecaster or anything else merely a reference point based on the current market.

So yes in BWILC you can add while its "against you"... so for example you have setup a grid that you think contains the current price range fairly well. and then split it into 4 quadrants. You're bias is long based in ird, and other things making up the longterm fundamental trend.

Price comes down to your 3rd quadrant so based on your context creator aka grid you open a low leverage position in Q3. Then if price drops down to Q4 you are happy if nothing fundamentally has changed with the picture. Because you have even cheaper levels to buy at according to your trade idea and bias.

So yes technically you will add to "losers" in BWILC but if you are trading according to BWILC they really arent losers yet. Merely your position is temporarily in the red and if the fundamental drivers havent changed why not take advantage of the bargain levels?

The leveraging in BWILC is insanely low if followed properly(which even Xaron will admit he has some problems adherring to reasonable leverage sometimes).

So your first entry might be .5:1 or something insanely low compared to what normal losing forex traders enter with. So whats the difference between entering an intraday trade risking 2% of your trade and entering very low leverage trades in multiple spots according to your grid. As long as one adheres to set limits on losses and doesn't allow himself to become obsessed with his viewpoint and bias then its no different. The 2% loss for example is the same for both.

It's merely acknowledging that its hard to pinpoint entries.

I'm still reading the book but that's my take on it so far.
  • #1,069
  • Oct 2, 2010 2:07am Oct 2, 2010 2:07am
Quoting domino
so your telling me you build into the position as it moves with you... ok im good with that.. i thought it was the opposite.. I never read BWILC but ive seen xaron trade.. and he fade as it moves against him..

but i just dont understand the idea of spreading the capital and adding while losing.. which is what I was thinking BWILC does.. if price is a fake break it will pull against the next resistance zone fail and break.. and ill get a higher price.. whose to say its a fake break or not you never know till it happens.....
Yep, it takes a pyramid approach when prices moves in your direction. If it moves against well it depends on the trader, some stick to their guns and take more trades as price moves lower in their grid, some might hedge and some might just stand aside look for any change in the fundamentals driving the price. Its more like a personal choice.

The advise in the book is to use low leverage and manage accounts on the MTM basis rather than on a entry to entry basis.

Though Xaron is been the most public figure of the BWILC way (way and not fixed rule system per se) , he takes some liberties too like: not having a single currency focus, insanely high leveraged trades, too many trades.

We come to know a break is a fake or not only as an afterthought but entering in a retrace is better way to be safe, in my opinion.

Getting a copy of BWILC is the way to go.
  • #1,070
  • Oct 2, 2010 2:14am Oct 2, 2010 2:14am
Quoting domino
yeah ill post it when i get home

gapped order flow is good if its against your position.. and bad if its with you your position. gbp aud was a B because it had already eaten some orderflow clusters.
Will wait for the chart

You looking at NZD/USD ? If yes, there is a gapped flow beneath. How will it effect the long with IRD?
  • #1,071
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:15am Oct 3, 2010 8:15am
Quoting vicky_ag
Will wait for the chart

You looking at NZD/USD ? If yes, there is a gapped flow beneath. How will it effect the long with IRD?

well we wont short into gapped order flow against the IRD.. the Gap in th OF is usually heavy support or resistance at the back of the building trend.. so how will it affect the long? It will not as price falls Ill be looking for a new long.
  • #1,072
  • Oct 3, 2010 10:38am Oct 3, 2010 10:38am
Quoting domino
well we wont short into gapped order flow against the IRD.. the Gap in th OF is usually heavy support or resistance at the back of the building trend.. so how will it affect the long? It will not as price falls Ill be looking for a new long.
Ok domino, been reading up on the support and resistance thread. Still half way there. Have some questions:

1. What is a death roll break? Referenced here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=128

2. NZD/USD trade:

This pair has been in range for quite some time. primarily caught in between 0.74 and 0.69 (though some action outside the range I think it was more of a whipsaw ). So on daily it looks good for a buy in long term at RZ10D:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-03_2105.png

But on looking at a higer tf:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-03_2107.png

One single down bar has taken more than 5 bars to cover up. So, good trade/BO buy???
  • #1,073
  • Oct 3, 2010 4:52pm Oct 3, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Ok domino, been reading up on the support and resistance thread. Still half way there. Have some questions:

1. What is a death roll break? Referenced here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=128
these refer to the shape of the reversal and shape of the waves.. within few amount of bars a set of less than 5 bars can create a wave high failure and break low on high volume.. this is a slingshot...
low volume failure at support taking more than 5 bars rounded shape with the failure on extremely low volume and accelerating increase in volume on break.. is a death roll ill post pics when I get home.. I know I keep promising that ill do it tonight..
Quote
2. NZD/USD trade:

This pair has been in range for quite some time. primarily caught in between 0.74 and 0.69 (though some action outside the range I think it was more of a whipsaw ). So on daily it looks good for a buy in long term at RZ10D:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-03_2105.png

But on looking at a higer tf:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...10-03_2107.png

One...
look at how the orderflow was built tho the gapped orderflow built with the trend shows building of positive orderflow.. very bullish good buy I feel.. but youll have to watch the lower frame (daily) for exits
  • #1,074
  • Oct 4, 2010 9:32am Oct 4, 2010 9:32am
Quoting domino
these refer to the shape of the reversal and shape of the waves.. within few amount of bars a set of less than 5 bars can create a wave high failure and break low on high volume.. this is a slingshot...
low volume failure at support taking more than 5 bars rounded shape with the failure on extremely low volume and accelerating increase in volume on break.. is a death roll ill post pics when I get home.. I know I keep promising that ill do it tonight..
Well domino you are quite back on your promises...some of them made over at the S&R thread too

Quote
look at how the orderflow was built tho the gapped orderflow built with the trend shows building of positive orderflow.. very bullish good buy I feel.. but youll have to watch the lower frame (daily) for exits

So I can enter on the long break ie at 0.7439 ? I need not worry about the impending death roll break on weekly?
  • #1,075
  • Oct 4, 2010 3:28pm Oct 4, 2010 3:28pm
EG 15 Minute. Long right now with anticipation of mark up if this is accumulation. In sync with IRD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG15.jpg Size: 171 KB
  • #1,076
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:39pm Oct 4, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting Benevolent
EG 15 Minute. Long right now with anticipation of mark up if this is accumulation. In sync with IRD.

Attachment
I could be wrong but IRD doesnt hold much water at low tf's like 15 mins.
  • #1,077
  • Oct 4, 2010 10:41pm Oct 4, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting vicky_ag
I could be wrong but IRD doesnt hold much water at low tf's like 15 mins.
Just looking for entries on 15, holding is holding as far as interest..
  • #1,078
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:00pm Oct 5, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting Benevolent
Just looking for entries on 15, holding is holding as far as interest..
Dint get you. Did you mean you are holding just to accumulate interest. If yes, you might have some interest accumulated only at the roll over at night, like at Oanda it happens at 1:30 am.

Anyway, great call on the trade.
  • #1,079
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:05pm Oct 5, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting domino
these refer to the shape of the reversal and shape of the waves.. within few amount of bars a set of less than 5 bars can create a wave high failure and break low on high volume.. this is a slingshot...
low volume failure at support taking more than 5 bars rounded shape with the failure on extremely low volume and accelerating increase in volume on break.. is a death roll ill post pics when I get home.. I know I keep promising that ill do it tonight.

look at how the orderflow was built tho the gapped orderflow built with the trend shows building...
Domino still awaiting on your promises.

Entered long on NU at the close on Friday (1pip + spread )
  • #1,080
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:37pm Oct 5, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Domino still awaiting on your promises.
here is an example of gapped orderflow thats good because its with the trend with IRD and the gap is with the flow.. the resistance sits in these gaps which mean not only is there lack of triggering orders in here but resistance as well.. this is good the opposite of this is bad.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: resistance and gapped flow.jpg Size: 45 KB
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