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AUD/USD

  • #23,841
  • Oct 1, 2010 5:22am Oct 1, 2010 5:22am
Quoting aussietrader
Seems to be a bit of hesitation on the way down today
SELL SELL SELL
who raped silver !
  • #23,842
  • Oct 1, 2010 5:28am Oct 1, 2010 5:28am
Quoting kfx3001
SELL SELL SELL

Heading for an early re-test.
  • #23,843
  • Oct 1, 2010 5:29am Oct 1, 2010 5:29am
I hope that means retest south
who raped silver !
  • #23,844
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:17am Oct 1, 2010 7:17am
Aussie looks strong. We might see a breakthrough to the upside... Next stop 0.9858
  • #23,845
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:27am Oct 1, 2010 7:27am
Anyone have any thoughts on this? Will it break through or reject again?
  • #23,846
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:29am Oct 1, 2010 7:29am
ya aussietrader I think you called it !
  • #23,847
  • Edited 7:41am Oct 1, 2010 7:40am | Edited 7:41am
I wonder if it will retrace for a bit, now that it has punched through for a new high? If that candle holds, it will be the mother of all Shooting Stars.

I would say there would have been a few people on the other side of that 0.9733 Resistance line with Buy Orders... Banks can be mean sometimes.
  • #23,848
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:47am Oct 1, 2010 7:47am
I have been the most short of anyone here and this thing is going all the way up. I am staying out would consider a short below .9635. Once .9740 is taken out everyone knows the next stop is .9850. It will be blowing through stop loses like the oil short squeeze of 08.
  • #23,849
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:15am Oct 1, 2010 8:15am
Quoting usapgapro
I have been the most short of anyone here and this thing is going all the way up. I am staying out would consider a short below .9635. Once .9740 is taken out everyone knows the next stop is .9850. It will be blowing through stop loses like the oil short squeeze of 08.
Capitulation here? Hummmm...

(Just kidding )
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #23,850
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:29am Oct 1, 2010 8:29am
all shorts stopped out. I see double bottom formation on gbp/aud and breakout above 50sma on eur/aud.

This could be it for Aussie given the spate of bad data recently has been ignored , perhaps only for time being , asx200 down for 3 days now supported only by monthly pivot somehow.
  • #23,851
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:15am Oct 1, 2010 10:15am
Let's start a juicy rumour:

The RBA has given a helping hand in the quick drop of Aussie from 9745 to 968x

  • #23,852
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:16pm Oct 1, 2010 2:16pm
Pffff, today we have done a new top while the MACD-4H was bearish all the way... Amazing!!!!
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #23,853
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:27pm Oct 1, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Pffff, today we have done a new top while the MACD-4H was bearish all the way... Amazing!!!!
i think when it falls, if it falls, it will be fast. 4hr bearish macd divergence has been given no respect on this move up
  • #23,854
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:48pm Oct 1, 2010 3:48pm
The next RBA meeting is going to be key.. I don't think glenn stevens would of expected the exchange rate to be this high when he gave a very hawkish stance on rates the last meeting. If he decides to keep interest rates on hold that could be the catalyst for a correction.

The kiwi finally broke key support last night as well which leads to some very bullish implications! A lot of shorts will be hurting right now..
  • #23,855
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:53pm Oct 2, 2010 7:53pm
Form the chart, i thought aud/usd should be going down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-03_08-52-30.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #23,856
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:14pm Oct 2, 2010 11:14pm
Quoting Phonetic
i think when it falls, if it falls, it will be fast. 4hr bearish macd divergence has been given no respect on this move up
Well we've been having MACD divergence since 92 area on H4. Only issue with divergence is sometimes it takes a while to play out.

I think there's a decent change we test all time highs ~9850. However, one thing to note is that with the extra inflation AUD has seen relative to USD over last two years. It's more like .9850 now is like 1.0250 in Summer 08.

From futures data we have at least 8 long positions for every short position. A word of advice, this currency falls much harder than it rises.

USD shorts are also at highest level since Summer 2008 we know what happened after that.

I still see a test of .80 over coming months.

The move upward on the weekly charts is parabolic in nature. The unwinding will be very quick.

MACD and RSI on daily are refusing to get higher and MACD is going to give a sell signal if we stay at these levels for another day.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #23,857
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:20pm Oct 2, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting usapgapro
I have been the most short of anyone here and this thing is going all the way up. I am staying out would consider a short below .9635. Once .9740 is taken out everyone knows the next stop is .9850. It will be blowing through stop loses like the oil short squeeze of 08.
Well we've kept on bouncing off this TL like a dozen times over the last month. God I wish I would have just buying on the TL and just keep on moving SL's up. Oh well.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #23,858
  • Oct 3, 2010 12:43am Oct 3, 2010 12:43am
This is the aud/usd 30m chart, maybe Monday the market will give it a direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-03_13-42-25.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #23,859
  • Oct 3, 2010 4:14am Oct 3, 2010 4:14am
i have done well on longs in the last few weeks but as its getting choppy now im on the side waiting for the top. The shorting it all the way down.
  • #23,860
  • Oct 3, 2010 4:14am Oct 3, 2010 4:14am
That's a formidable resistance line... I for one will be looking for a short position come monday, and have picked out a few potential profit targets

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/1558/03102010.jpg
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