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Aboonacci System - for EUR/USD prediction

  • #1,221
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:38am Oct 1, 2010 1:38am
Quoting theGuru
Sorry LolCat. Just noticed you were talking about a breakout template which I have never seen and isn't attached to this thread anymore.
fair enough

@bobi
can you post breakout template with new calculator or at least tell if its the same template as last month so we can draw it

thx
  • #1,222
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:44am Oct 1, 2010 2:44am
long at 1.3628 hit high reversal point of 1.3686 as predicted for a nice gain of 58 pips...my 4year old nephew could operate abonacci
  • #1,223
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:53am Oct 1, 2010 2:53am
Quoting LolCat
long at 1.3628 hit high reversal point of 1.3686 as predicted for a nice gain of 58 pips...my 4year old nephew could operate abonacci

Can you explain this numbers. Did you use the old version or the new?
  • #1,224
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:08am Oct 1, 2010 3:08am
Quoting LolCat
long at 1.3628 hit high reversal point of 1.3686 as predicted for a nice gain of 58 pips...my 4year old nephew could operate abonacci
I'm confused. Where do these numbers? Thanks
  • #1,225
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:13am Oct 1, 2010 3:13am
Quoting judokamak
Can you explain this numbers. Did you use the old version or the new?
i use old calculator ver 1 with new phase template

on calc i have pivot of 1.3635 so i when the price was around that number i expected to go up and try to break 100% of the phase (i was lucky to catch the very low of that candle),after it broke 1.659 which is strong resistance i was convinced it would reach my TP (high reversal point of 1.3686) in the first try

what i expected when i entered long was actually this scenario: up till 1.3659,hesitate for a while...if it went down to 1.650ish i would took the profit and wait for another try (which would actually turn out as even more pips for me),but 1.3659 was broken immediately so 1.3686 was to be reached next

id like to add that high reversal point is a very good target to go short with very tight SL as it seems its highly probable (not 100%) that the price will bounce back for a gain of 10-20 pips...it is more risky than usual but can turn out to be very profitable,its up to you to use it as its against trend
  • #1,226
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:18am Oct 1, 2010 3:18am
Quoting LolCat
i use old calculator ver 1 with new phase template

on calc i have pivot of 1.3635 so i when the price was around that number i expected to go up and try to break 100% of the phase (i was lucky to catch the very low of that candle),after it broke 1.659 which is strong resistance i was convinced it would reach my TP (high reversal point of 1.3686) in the first try

what i expected when i entered long was actually this scenario: up till 1.3659,hesitate for a while...if it went down to 1.650ish i would took the profit and wait for another try (which...

All clear except "high reversal point of 1.3686". If you got this number on 50% fibo between 23.6 of the next faze and base line, than i understand.
  • #1,227
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:26am Oct 1, 2010 3:26am
Quoting judokamak
All clear except "high reversal point of 1.3686". If you got this number on 50% fibo between 23.6 of the next faze and base line, than i understand.
yep thats it,it is explained in the .pdf manual...draw fibo from 50% of higher phase to 50% of blue fib,38.2% of this new fibo is high reversal point
  • #1,228
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:28am Oct 1, 2010 3:28am
got it thanks, let s see if it breaks 38.2..
  • #1,229
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:35am Oct 1, 2010 3:35am
Jeez....... 0.5 pip about the 38.2%

So, is that a break or not?
  • #1,230
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:36am Oct 1, 2010 3:36am
Quoting leemonk
Jeez....... 0.5 pip about the 38.2%

So, is that a break or not?

7 pip rule?
  • #1,231
  • Edited 3:47am Oct 1, 2010 3:36am | Edited 3:47am
..... trades that I have proven work very well (over last month via backtesting)
These trades do not require any 'feel' and seem to be great for those that may not be able to 'feel' the market.[/quote]..

the best way for testing an EA is live trading, because:

At least the big difference between Backtest and Forward-Test is noticeable for system developers when they activate a system after a successful development in Live-Trading. Quite often the excellent performance bend in Backtest turns out to be a completely unpleasant bend in the live-operation. So it could happen that a profitable system becomes a loss –maker. We have had this experience as well.
Well, what are the reasons for this?

1. MetaTrader doesn’t recognize tick-data
All the developed steps and decisions are basing on the available and historic data if you are developing a system. But the available data are not tick-data. Many developers believe that they are developing on the basis of historic real passed benchmark data. That’s not the case because MetaTrader calculates Pseudo-Ticks and how they could have been on the basis of 1minute candle with the appropriate High/Low/Open/Close.
Even Scalping systems which appear virtually fantastic in Backtest, fail regularly on this fact. Although of course we are developing our own systems on this basis of available data. Then, after gathering the appropriate forward-test data we either make improvements on that system or decide to reject it.
2. All Backtests are based off the data which had been loaded by Metaquotes Server!
It doesn’t matter which Broker you got. The data in the development is based on the provided data by Metaquotes. The „correct“ data is not available at Forex-Markt but every Broker / Dealing-Desk makes his own prices or rather conveys each prices of the associated banks. In reality this leads to the phenomenon "3 Broker - 3 exchange rates". A system which delivers in Forward-Test at Broker 1 x trades and at Broker 2 y trades is going to deliver at Backtest a totally different number of trades.

3. They work with an established Spread in Backtest
The Spread each Broker has looks, quite often, completely different and is even swaying

The above-mentioned text is not from me, is from a professional coder.

Regards
Meta1
  • #1,232
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:42am Oct 1, 2010 3:42am
Quoting judokamak
7 pip rule?
Exactly..... well spotted Sir!!!

Just to easy to forget about some of the base rules when you get excited............. pips...... more pips..... even more pips............... even more more more pipssss


ps. thanks for reminding me
  • #1,233
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:46am Oct 1, 2010 3:46am
You got that brake now Lee
  • #1,234
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:49am Oct 1, 2010 3:49am
Please correct me if I am wrong.

TP - next phase.
SL - below 68% of previous phase.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #1,235
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:52am Oct 1, 2010 3:52am
Quoting Ezzy
Please correct me if I am wrong.

TP - next phase.
SL - below 68% of previous phase.

From what i ve seen in back tests, even 76.4% is ok for SL value..
  • #1,236
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:01am Oct 1, 2010 4:01am
Quoting judokamak
From what i ve seen in back tests, even 76.4% is ok for SL value..
nice! thanks judo.
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #1,237
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:10am Oct 1, 2010 4:10am
Quoting LolCat
yep thats it,it is explained in the .pdf manual...draw fibo from 50% of higher phase to 50% of blue fib,38.2% of this new fibo is high reversal point
Many thanks for the explanation, bye
  • #1,238
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:14am Oct 1, 2010 4:14am
2. All Backtests are based off the data which had been loaded by Metaquotes Server!

Alpari.ru (nzd really) is not metaquotes server. Bye
  • #1,239
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:27am Oct 1, 2010 4:27am
hate to be offtopic but id like to talk about eur/usd if you dont mind

so we have 38,2% broken and can enter long positions with TP 1.38

we ve also reached 38.2% of white fibo,risky traders can enter short positions as it is best phase reversal point

on calc we have high breakout point of 1.3690 with TP 1.3743...seems like its going there as i type this

also 38 pips from breakout template 0% has been broken

gl all
captain obvious :nerd:
  • #1,240
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:42am Oct 1, 2010 4:42am
high breakout 2 hit for a gain of 50 pips
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