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THV system, final edition

  • #20,481
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:12am Sep 29, 2010 9:12am
Hi Rohule,

If I understood Tread correctly yesterday, by MA's in line he means they must be in order. For example that last trade you posted they were not in order on the 5 min timeframe as although the 13 and 21 were in order, the 55 and 89 were not. Ideally on the M5 you want them all in order ie. 13 21 55 then 89.

Hope this helps. :-)
  • #20,482
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:14am Sep 29, 2010 9:14am
what do you think guys risky trade? all rules are met (thv v4) coral,2 tf trix, adx and cloud
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passion and discipline
  • #20,483
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:16am Sep 29, 2010 9:16am
Quoting rohule
thank you tread, by saiyng the EMA must be in order you mean that The EMA should not be crossing each other?

OMG Tread you are better than the school!
See the attached for trade taken earlier on the USDJPY, ideally that is how you want your EMA to look.

1.) In order
2.) Expanding
3.) The EMA themselves are fairly straight (no bumpy)

The EMA represents an alignment of the trend, if it all mixed up, then it is indicating to stay out.


Notice how you stop loss was minimal, when you get all three timeframe to show the same trend.

Here is an exercise... see how many time the EMA on three time frame compress together an open out in one session on your favorite pairs

They are the safiest entries to take (when use with ADX and THV rules) and lead to some good pips... you get 2 - 3 of these per pair per session. Even if you take 10 Pips per trade and 2 times per pair and you trade 4 pairs that is 80pips per session with low risk entries.

Now I am not saying there is no risk, it is very risky, but the multitimeframe EMA comparison improve your odds
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  • #20,484
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:16am Sep 29, 2010 9:16am
Quoting pips r us
Hi Rohule,

If I understood Tread correctly yesterday, by MA's in line he means they must be in order. For example that last trade you posted they were not in order on the 5 min timeframe as although the 13 and 21 were in order, the 55 and 89 were not. Ideally on the M5 you want them all in order ie. 13 21 55 then 89.

Hope this helps. :-)
thank you Chiba san and pips r us, anyway i did not enter in that trade, i wate for next TF to enter, what abouth you guys?
passion and discipline
  • #20,485
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:30am Sep 29, 2010 9:30am
Some thoughts on selecting Pairs

1.) Spread is important, but should be taken in context of the overall picture. A nice trend on a higher spread pair I will take, rather than force a trade on the low spread. That being said....stay away from the GBPNZD and EURNZD...those pairs are not for scalping... i jut cannot win consistently on it. Some of you might, i just find it is very hard work

2.) Look at the economic calender and see what pairs have news out in the coming hours.

3.) Try not to overtrade a movement, what i mean is, in the Asian Session the JPY was really moving to a lot of pairs were dropping, the greedy person would have traded the movement of the EJ, GJ, UJ, but you are in effect exposed your self to a high degree of risk for the same movement. Manage the expectation that you have to fully exploit the move.

4.) If you are have multiple trades running, it is a good idea to have a script that can close ALL trades in automatically. There have been times when for some reason I see a swing in the market and trades start to go bad. I just launch the CloseAll script. At that stage I am trying to end up with a good NET position rather than worry about individual trades which may be in profit or lost

5.) You need to prepare yourself for each session, go thru the charts, check up on the news etc etc.... you need a plan that you follow eveyday. Do not launch the application and start looking for a trade. It is like taking a pop quiz and not being in class the day before...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CloseAll.mq4   6 KB | 611 downloads
  • #20,486
  • Edited 9:44am Sep 29, 2010 9:33am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting chiba_san
thanks tread.

for me personally, tonite, is not a good trading night. last night was so easy. tonite. i am only down 10 pips because i got out when things looked bad. any trade i would have stayed in, i would have become toast....

unless my eyes deceive me, nothing looks like a high percentage win right now.....

BUT, i still feel confident. it's just none of the pictures look right. everything looks forced...

tread, may i ask, what are the currencies you scalp with? i have 6 on screen. but i am only choosing based on spread

edit: basically,...
I monitor all with the exception of GBPNZD and EURNZD. I still take trades now and then.... but my lest favorites, it is a black hole.

Use the FF Market to get a fair idea of market conditions
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php

Look at the session area the red house means that there is a large amount of activity in the market. Right now it is 84% above average.

Look to the right side (composite quote), you get an idea for which pairs are turning over pips quickly... you can specify which pairs you want to monitor
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  • #20,487
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:37am Sep 29, 2010 9:37am
just an fyi to what i was saying last night. same thing tonite. medium news on something us dollar related. i just put on the eur/usd 1 minute b4 the 1030 news. around 30 seconds to kick off, it gave a sell signal based on the 1M thv and adx, so just like last night, i did the opposite, i bought. not high impacting though. i got +7.5 pip off of that.

still waiting for someone's insight. is what i am doing gambling? or is buying to the opposite of the initial direction assuming that it is a fakeout a good idea in the long run?

ofcourse i can keep doing this and i guess i will find out the answer eventually myself...

edit: you wont' be able to see it now. the trix and adx have repainted. you have to be ready for it like 120 seconds in. and just look at it like an owl, and go against the signals initial direction 30 seconds out.
  • #20,488
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:44am Sep 29, 2010 9:44am
Quoting chiba_san
just an fyi to what i was saying last night. same thing tonite. medium news on something us dollar related. i just put on the eur/usd 1 minute b4 the 1030 news. around 30 seconds to kick off, it gave a sell signal based on the 1M thv and adx, so just like last night, i did the opposite, i bought. not high impacting though. i got +7.5 pip off of that.

still waiting for someone's insight. is what i am doing gambling? or is buying to the opposite of the initial direction assuming that it is a fakeout a good idea in the long run?

ofcourse i can...
No idea how that works ... coin flip?? You need to check news that was traded, and see what was predicated and what was released. so you can guage the effect. Also based on the type of news on the particular pair the condition maybe bullish but the news does the opposite.

Trading the news is always risky, i do it, but only on certain type of news and only on certain pairs.
  • #20,489
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:03am Sep 29, 2010 10:03am
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh..............

it hasn't been a good night. i ended up surprisingly in profit. took a bad trade just now. i keep getting out in the nick of time tonite for some reason. ended up with less than 10 pips profit.

should have ended up with at least a 40 pip loss.

anyways, good night.
  • #20,490
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:00am Sep 29, 2010 11:00am
hi rohule,

No I did nt take that trade either. Too risky. EURUSD keep hitting the 1.3636 mark. I am waiting for a break on this with all rules satisfied before I enter. My trading approach was quite risky before. I would scalp pips in quite a geeedy manner. It meant that some trades my risk would be higher because I was not checking setups correctly are larger timeframes. This left me with days I would have loads of pips in balance but then others like today where EURUSD keeps moving inbetween two boundaries where I would suffer and loose heavily. So I now am waiting more for better setups. More patience for setups will mean risk is less so odds are more in your favour.

my 2 cents worth ;-)
  • #20,491
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:25am Sep 29, 2010 11:25am
Hi All

Here is a new version of the Swiss Army Histo.

Please see this post for a description of the types and for the helper indies that go with it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=20144

This version, V4.36

1) Fixes a bug in type 26 (three ma cross + coral). This should have checked when the 3 specified MAs for the period specified were lined up in order and all beneath the coral for the period specified but instead it checked whether they were below the coral for for the chart timeframe. This has been fixed, so now you can use this to moniter whether Tread's ma method is lined up for three MAs plus the coral on various timeframes.

2) You can now specify which pair to monitor - i.e you can watch EURUSD on the USDJPY chart.

3) Includes type 29 - like type 28 but doesn't check if the ADX is also increasing - just the DI.

4) Includes type 30 - Using the params firstlowertype 30 and firsthigher type30, seccondlowertype20 and secondhighertype30 you can check whether the PlusDI on a lower tf is higher than PlusDI on a higher tf and MinusDI on a lower tf is lower than MinusDI on a higher TF and ADX is rising ( and vice versa of course).

Green when PlusDI> PlusDIHTF && MinusDI<MinusDIHTF && PlusDI> PlusDIPrev && ADX >ADXPrev

Red when MinusDI>MinusDIHTF && PlusDI< PlusDIHTF && MinusDI>MinusDIPrev && ADX >ADXPrev,
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SwissArmyMixedhistoV4.36.ex4   185 KB | 550 downloads
  • #20,492
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:53am Sep 29, 2010 11:53am
Quoting MissPips
Hi All

Here is a new version of the Swiss Army Histo.

Please see this post for a description of the types and for the helper indies that go with it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=20144

This version, V4.36

1) Fixes a bug in type 26 (three ma cross + coral). This should have checked when the 3 specified MAs...

Thanks MissPips, will load it up
  • #20,493
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:11pm Sep 29, 2010 4:11pm
Another new version of the SA indie.
This one
1) Removes debugging comment left in error in prior version
2) Adds type 31. Same as type 26 except uses 4 MAs instead of 3 MAs plus the coral and also checks of the distance between MA 1 and 2 is expanding. Red when all MAs in order, MA1 below MA2, MA2 below MA3, MA3 below MA4 and the distance between MA1 and MA2 for the current bar is greater than for the previous bar. Vice versa for green.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SwissArmyMixedhistoV4.37.ex4   191 KB | 821 downloads
  • #20,494
  • Edited 9:30pm Sep 29, 2010 8:39pm | Edited 9:30pm
if i were to guess, i would guess that adx + trix will give a 60% win rate.

what do you project the ema's on all 3 timeframes agreeing as well, will give in terms of an edge? the reason i ask, is because there will be fewer trades, and more patience will be required.

there is probably a likelihood where one would have stayed out of consecutive trades due to the ema's not lining up. let's just say for arguments sake that in that instance, all of them would have ended in your favour; had you of taken them. and then finally, you take a trade where the ema's line up in addition to trix and adx, but the result is not as expected...

one scenario like this will seriously shake one's faith.

however, if you have found the addition of the ema's to give over 70% win rate... then it would be worth it...especially when lot size increases.

EDIT: tread, you typed this: They are the safiest entries to take (when use with ADX and THV rules) and lead to some good pips... you get 2 - 3 of these per pair per session. Even if you take 10 Pips per trade and 2 times per pair and you trade 4 pairs that is 80pips per session with low risk entries.

can you please define "session"? or do you just mean per one's trading day?

Quoting Tread
See the attached for trade taken earlier on the USDJPY, ideally that is how you want your EMA to look.

1.) In order
2.) Expanding
3.) The EMA themselves are fairly straight (no bumpy)

The EMA represents an alignment of the trend, if it all mixed up, then it is indicating to stay out.


Notice how you stop loss was minimal, when you get all three timeframe to show the same trend.

Here is an exercise... see how many time the EMA on three time frame compress together an open out in one session on your favorite pairs

They are the safiest entries...
  • #20,495
  • Edited Sep 30, 2010 12:27am Sep 29, 2010 8:50pm | Edited Sep 30, 2010 12:27am
thanks for that miss pips!
  • #20,496
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:37pm Sep 29, 2010 9:37pm
good one tonight
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,497
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:24pm Sep 29, 2010 10:24pm
seems you are big fan of the trix rejection....

do u use any other criteria for the trix rejection trades? i.e. do you at least look for a trix rejection at the zero? or not even...

Quoting bgbearnavy
good one tonight
  • #20,498
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:32pm Sep 29, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting chiba_san
if i were to guess, i would guess that adx + trix will give a 60% win rate.

what do you project the ema's on all 3 timeframes agreeing as well, will give in terms of an edge? the reason i ask, is because there will be fewer trades, and more patience will be required.

there is probably a likelihood where one would have stayed out of consecutive trades due to the ema's not lining up. let's just say for arguments sake that in that instance, all of them would have ended in your favour; had you of taken them. and then finally, you take a trade where...

Let me pose some questions, when you enter a trade, where in the cycle are you entering? Is the trend nearing exhaustion, are you at the start of the trend? In the middle? had the major run complete? Are you in a minor swing?

Being forced to observe the EMA you get an appreciation for you entry position.

To get a bit more specific, you have a brand new trend being formed (major, minor etc), it is being reflected across three timeframes, this to some degree is you edge, you are catching a breakout.

Now let me ask you for the trades where all the TF lined up .. how large a stoploss was needed?

Of the all signals where the 3 tf lined up, how many failed?

In your example 3 trades not taken and 1 lost trade means... 1 lost trade. The point of the ema's is to not just increase probability of success, but to reduce Risk per trade, as in, I an use a smaller stop loss. Trading is not only about growing the capital, it is also about protecting it.

The session i refer to is London/US. I typically trade the Asia Overlap/London/US Overlap.. about 12 hours. The best time to trade is the London session.

My sucess rate with the adx addon is a bit higher, about 86% on entry. however it has been months since I closed a session in negative pips using the THV. With the ema, I am a little bit over 90.

Sed a trader posted a 92% trading just the basic THV, remember tho you still need to look for the basics. support and resistance is critical,
  • #20,499
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:11pm Sep 29, 2010 11:11pm
hmmmm.....

master tread, in answer to your exercises:

when i enter a trade, i am never sure where in the cycle i am entering. i do not know if it is near the end, middle or start.

when they all align, how much of a stop loss? ummm.... well, it always goes in your favour i've noticed, if it were to go against you, it would take time. like lots of time. lots of bars. so in regards to a stop loss..... i really can't answer. even on a 5m, if you want to wait for it to go 30 pips against you..... you will have to wait for some time...

if thv + adx add on, is 86%. and adding on ema is now 90%. that's 4% roughly. however, i imagine number of total trades taken would be cut in half.

Quoting Tread
Let me pose some questions, when you enter a trade, where in the cycle are you entering? Is the trend nearing exhaustion, are you at the start of the trend? In the middle? had the major run complete? Are you in a minor swing?

Being forced to observe the EMA you get an appreciation for you entry position.

To get a bit more specific, you have a brand new trend being formed (major, minor etc), it is being reflected across three timeframes, this to some degree is you edge, you are catching a breakout.

Now let me ask you for the trades where...
  • #20,500
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:47pm Sep 29, 2010 11:47pm
When i enter a trade, i am never sure where in the cycle i am entering. i do not know if it is near the end, middle or start.

This is critical and should be part of your setup routine. That why using the EMA will help, visually you get to interpert the Price action without even knowing it and quickly and easily

When they all align, how much of a stop loss? ummm.... well, it always goes in your favour i've noticed, if it were to go against you, it would take time. like lots of time. lots of bars. so in regards to a stop loss..... i really can't answer. even on a 5m, if you want to wait for it to go 30 pips against you..... you will have to wait for some time...


That's right, how many times, have we heard about traders entering and the market immediately going against them? This type of entry helps avoid that situation. It builds your confidence.

This is just not to me, the EMA's are there for all,to trade.

If thv + adx add on, is 86%. and adding on ema is now 90%. that's 4% roughly. however, i imagine number of total trades taken would be cut in half.

The real question is, what is the traders current sucess rate, and will this method improve his ratio. Never worry about trades not taken. The market will always be there. Worry about your risk and profit.

Taking 4 trades that have a 60% chance of winning or 1 trade with a 75%?

Okay..small disclaimer here, the % is really subject to the individual trader. Without using it your self to see if it makes you profitable the discussion of % is really a moot point

And finally the 3 mtf breakout is only 1 type of entry I have shown. The more experienced traders can renter of the bounce of the trend line (buy the dips), Or buy/sell of the retracement between the 13EMA and 21EMA.


I'll post more on that on the weekend. This is not original thought, persons familiar with Raghee Homer style of trading will see where I am going with it.
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