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AUD/USD

  • #23,681
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:38am Sep 28, 2010 9:38am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Possible H&S at 1H...
Failure to do new top (so far)...
new high here~~
  • #23,682
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:50am Sep 28, 2010 9:50am
Quoting avalonyu
new high here~~
true
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #23,683
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:11am Sep 28, 2010 10:11am
tmrw morning aussie will have a reality check..stevens should be fired immediately for blowing cold hot cold hot waves
  • #23,684
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:23am Sep 28, 2010 10:23am
Quoting sachin_syd
tmrw morning aussie will have a reality check..stevens should be fired immediately for blowing cold hot cold hot waves
Steve who, and whos blowing hot air ?
  • #23,685
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:24am Sep 28, 2010 10:24am
Quoting sachin_syd
tmrw morning aussie will have a reality check..stevens should be fired immediately for blowing cold hot cold hot waves
stevens would expect this..
BTW see the gold..
  • #23,686
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:46am Sep 28, 2010 11:46am
bananas. the trend is your friend. i will take a few weeks off. and come back to trade the trend.
  • #23,687
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:43pm Sep 28, 2010 5:43pm
Thought I'd post the below chart, its pretty self explanatory.

I'm not calling this a top, but it would seem we are due for a correction. The confluence of the .50 fib extension and the amount of days and pips is why I'm taking a short, also could be good R/R.

Also, US equities are at pretty solid resistance with the SPX at 1150. Of course with the way the market is behaving it could blow through this and AUD/USD could go to parity tomorrow. (check your sarcasam meter)

My 2 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_28au.JPG Size: 79 KB
This is what awesome feels like
  • #23,688
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:01pm Sep 28, 2010 7:01pm
I guess leading indicators wasn't enough to move price!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,689
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:38pm Sep 28, 2010 7:38pm
Everyone getting nice and short here ?
Too frightened to buy at the highs?
Well someone is soaking them up in a big way like never before.
and i expect to see .97 infront of it very soon
  • #23,690
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:52pm Sep 28, 2010 7:52pm
wow...just wow, every day i see aussie higher..really killing me here. i haven't put on a new trade in a week or so now because of this thing..

COME BACK TO REALITY
  • #23,691
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:59pm Sep 28, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
wow...just wow, every day i see aussie higher..really killing me here. i haven't put on a new trade in a week or so now because of this thing..

COME BACK TO REALITY
Best trade of them all..

See you at parity... At least the champgne will be cheaper
  • #23,692
  • Sep 28, 2010 8:21pm Sep 28, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting lasty
best trade of them all..

See you at parity... At least the champgne will be cheaper
this will not reach parity....not in the short term anyways.
  • #23,693
  • Sep 28, 2010 8:30pm Sep 28, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Daytrader74
this will not reach parity....not in the short term anyways.

It also would not help Australia for the currency to strengthen more. Actually it is probably already too strong to benefit the economy.

Australia is an exporter, and this applies to all exporters, be it of finished products or of commodities--a strong currency reduces exports by making them less competitive. This is why BOJ is trying so hard to weaken the yen, it is not because they want to buy massive amounts of USD.
  • #23,694
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:45pm Sep 28, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting moonchild
It also would not help Australia for the currency to strengthen more. Actually it is probably already too strong to benefit the economy.

Australia is an exporter, and this applies to all exporters, be it of finished products or of commodities--a strong currency reduces exports by making them less competitive. This is why BOJ is trying so hard to weaken the yen, it is not because they want to buy massive amounts of USD.
agreed.
  • #23,695
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:51pm Sep 28, 2010 9:51pm
Quoting moonchild
It also would not help Australia for the currency to strengthen more. Actually it is probably already too strong to benefit the economy.

Australia is an exporter, and this applies to all exporters, be it of finished products or of commodities--a strong currency reduces exports by making them less competitive. This is why BOJ is trying so hard to weaken the yen, it is not because they want to buy massive amounts of USD.
Are you believing the spin.?
The higher the currency goes the cheaper our imports..
We export commodities mainly. Commodities are determined by global demand and not by exchange rate..
Tourism in Australia maybe affect by the exchange rate BUT the biggest influence is value. Even if our currency was at 50 cents Australia is way overpriced for what you get.
Tourists look at value but also whats to do..
Given the pathetic nanny state controls.. people are giving this place a wide berth.
Until the rip off mentality ceases in this country Australia's exchange rate could be at $1.20 or 50 cents and would make no difference.
  • #23,696
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:56pm Sep 28, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting lasty
Are you believing the spin.?
The higher the currency goes the cheaper our imports..
We export commodities mainly. Commodities are determined by global demand and not by exchange rate..
Tourism in Australia maybe affect by the exchange rate BUT the biggest influence is value. Even if our currency was at 50 cents Australia is way overpriced for what you get.
Tourists look at value but also whats to do..
Given the pathetic nanny state controls.. people are giving this place a wide berth.
Until the rip off mentality ceases in this country Australia's...
While tourism probably represents a nice addition to the balance sheet, it is not the main source of funds for Australia.commodit

As to commodity sales, obviously there will be no sales if there is no demand, but demand will go to where the materials can be purchased most cheaply and this does depend on the exchange rate. There is no commodity that can only be acquired from Australia, and that being the case Australia will always be competing against other suppliers for customers who are looking for the best prices.
  • #23,697
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:58pm Sep 28, 2010 9:58pm
I think given the current conditions (ie, rising interest rates, rising gold price and deflating USD) will push this pair to parity - and then some.

I don't think commodity prices are the main drivers in this case.

my thoughts at least
  • #23,698
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:19pm Sep 28, 2010 10:19pm
You don't think China may have purchased AUD when it was dirt cheap last time around and hedged their imports for exactly this scenario?

No one gives a shit about Australian tourism. Australian tourism sucks. And the previous poster was right. Even without this exchange rate, Australia is still overpriced.

And bearing that in mind, if inflation is out of control, which it is, do you think the RBA is going to be lowering rates anytime soon?
  • #23,699
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:25pm Sep 28, 2010 10:25pm
To chime in.... THE RBA DOES, I REPEAT, DOES NOT CARE MUCH ABOUT AN "OVERLY STRONG" AUD.

Do not become hopeful about the RBA stepping in to save the day for shorts.

Look at their intervention track record and studies. More than 70% of their intervention efforts seem geared to purchasing the Aussie when market conditions were supposedly "illiquid". This action, historically, would occur around the .60-.65 mark. I've failed to read any memorandum or official material noting intervention on the upside.

Secondly - if one were to delve into their excerpts it seems very boastful with notes of being profitable by buying the Aussie in periods of "illiquidity" and selling back to the market at a much higher price. Why am I so fond to believe this is the case now.

for the above reasons, I view the RBA as almost being completely "corporate in nature". They lack nationalistic values IMO.

enough blah blah, back to the pair in question.
  • #23,700
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:44pm Sep 28, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting moonchild
While tourism probably represents a nice addition to the balance sheet, it is not the main source of funds for Australia.commodit

As to commodity sales, obviously there will be no sales if there is no demand, but demand will go to where the materials can be purchased most cheaply and this does depend on the exchange rate. There is no commodity that can only be acquired from Australia, and that being the case Australia will always be competing against other suppliers for customers who are looking for the best prices.
Lets look at Japan.
Our exchange rate has fluctuated between Yen 107 and Yen 56 over the course of 4 years.
What impact do you think has that had on our trade with Japan ?

What can Australia do about it ?

They cannot look after every economy to favour the exchange rates.

What we are seeing is a US dollar sell off,even though the media spin like the Australian dollar is strong.
You will here them yell parity, parity, parity.
Arent we great !!!!
Truth be known that one country decided to print more money intentions to weaken theirs and the other has done the opposite.
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