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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #381
  • Sep 28, 2010 3:59am Sep 28, 2010 3:59am
well I am just not talking about PA or pattern setups with odds in your favor for the most part. I guess if that is your general definition of setup then you can call it that. Everyone is waiting for an opportunity.
  • #382
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:06am Sep 28, 2010 4:06am
true. i dunno what you're talking about then unless its tape readin
  • #383
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:49am Sep 28, 2010 4:49am
Keep on dreaming Turveyd. At least they are free.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #384
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:58am Sep 28, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Sim
true. i dunno what you're talking about then unless its tape readin
Tape reading in Forex is like trying to read a book with half the pages torn out.

The 2 things that you can rely on in a decentralized market are the chart for technicals and fundamentals for market sentiment.

The price chart is the only true aggregation that is representative of the market as a whole. (tick volume is not)

Once you eliminate all the bullshit, you can then focus on torturing your chart until it confesses. It is not simple, and it is not a "system".

By building enough correlational technical relationships that price is responding to you can eliminate a lot of the guess work of where it may move. But market sentiment is fickle, so we can't predict the future, we can only identify opportunities and respond accordingly when they present themselves. While all trades involve chance, there are higher and lower probability trades. The better your understanding of market mechanics and what to technically look for, the more chance you have of identifying these higher probability trades.

This chart is a classic example of what I'm talking about. So far the trend has bounced off the white line on each successive retrace at a key support levels. Taking the trade off the rejection of the last support level which was also MR1, S1, 61.8% of yesterday's HL off the Daily Open, and 23.6% retrace of the last wave up made it higher probability. Staying in the trade relies on each successive higher support level holding with a target of 15900 as TP. If it breaks back below the last support level, close the trade with a nice profit.
It could go to 15990. But setting reasonable and achievable goals has more to do with steadily growing your account balance then squeezing every pip out of a trade. (at least for me)

Anyway, everyone has their own approach, this is part of mine, but it takes a lot of the "gambling" out of the equation.
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  • #385
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:23am Sep 28, 2010 5:23am
well, here is my take. on the market
been trading for few years, the very first few.. it sucked..
then the picture became clear...
Tape Reading. and try VSA.. volume spread analysis. will help along with order flow supprt and ressistance.....
you will start seeing structure..
The problem with us as traders we mainly focus on the charts with out knowing what's really going on behind the charts...
you gotta tape read.. and understand supply demand inflection points.....

good luck..
  • #386
  • Edited 6:56am Sep 28, 2010 5:54am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting SIGMA Time
well, here is my take. on the market
been trading for few years, the very first few.. it sucked..
then the picture became clear...
Tape Reading. and try VSA.. volume spread analysis. will help along with order flow supprt and ressistance.....
you will start seeing structure..
The problem with us as traders we mainly focus on the charts with out knowing what's really going on behind the charts...
you gotta tape read.. and understand supply demand inflection points.....

good luck..
I trade on a fairly sophisticated platform and have access to Level 2 data. (I use MT4 for some of my analytics because it's easier to build tools for)

I can tell you from experience that tape reading had greater validity in Jesse Livermore's time for the stock market than it does now. The changes just in the past 2 years have been sweeping. Black pools, HFT, and broker shading have greatly reduced it's reliability.

On top of this, Forex is decentralized, so if you understand the implications of this, it is not possible to capture ALL the price ladder data from any one given source. Even if you pooled the data from the 3 largest feeds it would be incomplete.

No offense intended, but VSA just sounds cool. There are some good tips in Tom Williams book about supply demand trading, but he's a software salesman and "invented" VSA to sell the software. Everything he is telling you was written ages before he ever took his first trade. He repackaged a very old technique and gave it a catchy acronym, that's all.

Besides this, one of the issues with VSA is the same problem you have with tape reading for Forex. There is no centralized volume. It's tick data and reliant on your feed. Even paying for an expensive feed you are only getting part of the picture. Test the statistical efficacy of any VSA trader on FF. You will find their ability to call the market is no better than that of any good supply resistance trader. (I know because I was curious about VSA, so tracked the VSA trader's results) I'm not interested in having a debate on VSA, and know the VSA traders position quite well regarding their "system". You should do your own homework and make an educated choice based on the proper vetting of any process or system that people tout.

The problem isn't that traders are focused on their charts without knowing what's going on behind them, the problem is that many traders don't understand enough of what's going on on their charts to begin with, and jump from one thing to another.

It's your choice what you want to believe, and whether adding layers of complication to your process is actually earning you money.

Best of luck
  • #387
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:02am Sep 28, 2010 6:02am
I guess there are people that believe using past prices and having a great understanding of what's going on in their charts is enough to trade without calling it gambling.

in the end, it doesn't matter what you believe as long as your profiting consistently... whether you call it gambling or not or using the order book, VSA, MA's, MT4 tools, or none at all.
  • #388
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:21am Sep 28, 2010 6:21am
Quoting Monroe
I guess there are people that believe using past prices and having a great understanding of what's going on in their charts is enough to trade without calling it gambling.

in the end, it doesn't matter what you believe as long as your profiting consistently... whether you call it gambling or not or using the order book, VSA, MA's, MT4 tools, or none at all.
Well put.

In terms of utilizing past data, lawyers study past cases to increase their odds of winning, doctors study past operations to increase their odds of not killing their patient, salesman study prior pitches to increase their odds of closing a sale. There isn't a single profession that doesn't rely on past data as part of the formula for success, trading is no different. Many high paying professions involve risk, so you could say most are a gamble.
  • #389
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:22am Sep 28, 2010 6:22am
There is no guaranteed, firm system that generates money without risks.
Period.
But.

Simply:

Practice first with very small amount for longer time to understand logic behind market movements.
Don't rely on that logic, it can easily cheat you.
So, you need to read more and learn about influences and forces on the market.
Don't rely on that information, it can easily cheat you.
Understanding technical analysis helps to understand internal dynamic of movements.
Don't rely on that.
Get long vacation and don't trade for months.
Enter with bigger money, comprising all aforesaid, listen your intuition.
Biggest catch 22 is to master stop loss or to hedge reversals.
It takes time to master.
When damage control is mastered, there is no too much risks (key point for trading in general).
Than start to trade more aggresively, be patient and don't enter each trade, usually it is some voice that tells you when.
If you don't hear that voice, continue to learn and trade conservativelly.
You can realy on that voice when everything else is mastered.
Forget MT4, master your plan, read a lot, but still noone can help you, if you don't follow cautious logic.
This is game You against Chaos.
Respect Forex, each and any moment of trade.
If money is bigger than 100.000 choose reputable, regulated brokers, if more than 1 M, go only with segregated accounts (even if it costs more).
  • #390
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:09am Sep 28, 2010 7:09am
Quoting Fudomyo
Tape reading in Forex is like trying to read a book with half the pages torn out.

The 2 things that you can rely on in a decentralized market are the chart for technicals and fundamentals for market sentiment.

The price chart is the only true aggregation that is representative of the market as a whole. (tick volume is not)

Once you eliminate all the bullshit, you can then focus on torturing your chart until it confesses. It is not simple, and it is not a "system".

By building enough correlational technical relationships that price...
Thanks for the info in your series of posts.. appreciated
  • #391
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:32am Sep 28, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Patience
Keep on dreaming Turveyd. At least they are free.
lest they turn into nightmares...
  • #392
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:59am Sep 28, 2010 7:59am
Quoting Fudomyo
Well put.

In terms of utilizing past data, lawyers study past cases to increase their odds of winning, doctors study past operations to increase their odds of not killing their patient, salesman study prior pitches to increase their odds of closing a sale. There isn't a single profession that doesn't rely on past data as part of the formula for success, trading is no different. Many high paying professions involve risk, so you could say most are a gamble.
I agree that you can most definitely use past data to help of course. But, I also think it depends on how you're using that data and what you're using it for. I also think a lot of those examples you listed in different professions are quite different to what we are dealing with in this one. For example watching a heart operation is useful of course, but imagine if the heart was not in the same place all the time and conditions are never the same... now that is a crazy thing to imagine, but I think you see what I mean.

To me (my opinion) you need info not found on the charts without question. You don't need charts to trade, as the most valuable info is not found on them and any valuable info that is found on them (such as important levels, etc) are recorded and can be found elsewhere. I use charts btw, mostly for a monitor on the market while I'm waiting and for watching after I am in a trade.

And I also agree fully with your statement that most high paying professions require risks and therefor can be considered a gamble.
  • #393
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:49am Sep 28, 2010 9:49am
Quoting Vlad
5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years.
Hello this is my first post here.

IMO nobody wants to wait 40 years to become multimillionere
Everybody wants to do this in 1 year and during 39 next years spend that money

So this becomes main problem for some people.... and couses failures and such funny posts.

Trading is not gambling... all charts are visible for everyone so u always know/see what other traders ...so ....better, more expirienced traders win money from newbies and bad players...
  • #394
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:38am Sep 29, 2010 1:38am
Quoting Fxpg
Hello this is my first post here.

IMO nobody wants to wait 40 years to become multimillionere
Everybody wants to do this in 1 year and during 39 next years spend that money

So this becomes main problem for some people.... and couses failures and such funny posts.

Yeah, well I am pretty sure some serious bank or mega-fund could afford to spare $50 to rip 1 trillion in 40 years. Or whatever other amount of dollars that can be ripped in a certain amount of years.

--------------------------------------------------------

www.thesickearth.blogspot.com
  • #395
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:28am Sep 29, 2010 3:28am
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was,...
Just when you think you've got it nailed, it turns around and bitch slaps you back to reality. I think one of the best attributes any trader can have is patience. Not sure if that is applicable in this scenario, but soldier on.
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #396
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:17am Sep 29, 2010 4:17am
Quoting Fudomyo
I'm not interested in having a debate on VSA, and know the VSA traders position quite well regarding their "system". You should do your own homework and make an educated choice based on the proper vetting of any process or system that people tout.
Just my opinion:

The trader makes the system rather than the system making the trader. Those who trade VSA well do so because they trade well, not simply because the use VSA. A lot of good traders will share similar principles, despite the methods appearing very different.
  • #397
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:08am Sep 29, 2010 6:08am
Quoting SIGMA Time
I started trading back in 1998 using cybertrader LEVEL 2 ,, order book and all of that.. VOLUME is the KEY..................

From all I know there is no volume indication possible in Forex.
  • #398
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:10am Sep 29, 2010 6:10am
Quoting SIGMA Time
I agree with you that the market dynamics have changed over time.. however, I still believe you can use VSA and Orderflow to trade profitably.
I can acctually prove that........................although vsa is not fully useful, you can still use it with success..
I don't use any indicators. I trade on bare charts.
EXAMPLE EURUSD now heading toward 1.3528 and then you can sell if VSA confirms...
enjoy.
Would you please show up some links to good VSA information sources?

Thanks in advance -
  • #399
  • Sep 29, 2010 7:49am Sep 29, 2010 7:49am
I'm still asking myself if SIGMA sold euro at 1.3528 after waiting for his VSA confirmation.
I can't understand how somebody would try to sell euro. He has to be the newbiest trader alive.
And another important point too, you can't prove that a complicated indicator increases the odds as long as you trade discretionary. Trying to disprove the usefulness of tick volume is an exercise in futility, there will always be some hardcore traders, possible profitable, which will think that their success comes from interpreting that volume.
If someone is consistent profitable, he usually is in spite of the weather. Now, if he puts a weather indicator on the chart and trades only when the outside temperature is in some range, does it mean that the weather is a good indicator?
  • #400
  • Sep 29, 2010 7:52am Sep 29, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Sauron
I'm still asking myself if SIGMA sold euro at 1.3528 after waiting for his VSA confirmation.
I can't understand how somebody would try to sell euro. He has to be the newbiest trader alive.
And another important point too, you can't prove that a complicated indicator increases the odds as long as you trade discretionary. Trying to disprove the usefulness of tick volume is an exercise in futility, there will always be some hardcore traders, possible profitable, which will think that their success comes from interpreting that volume.
If someone...
where can i download this weather indicator???
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