7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

I am leery of the eu today as well. It is at an area of resistance right now, going back to last Feb-March. So I am looking to see a possible retrace. But hey, who knows?

I did enter long, because the trend is still upward (heading into resistance), but my stop is fairly tight. So if price does break through, then we should do all right. If not, then I lose a few pips.

With all of that said, I am still thinking short on one of these days. Stoch's are in the upper range on the daily, and heading that way on the weekly.

Consolidation is on right now, so I will just sit and wait.

Have a great day

Hey everyone,

As some of you know, I was running some back test on pairs that I believe would be possibly suitable for trading this strategy upon.

I used the H1 timeframe, and ran backtest on USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, EURJPY and USDCHF.

I basically set a buy stop at the top of the range or a sell stop at the bottom of the range, with stop loss at the opposite ends. If a trade was stopped out, and price action reached the opposite side of the range, I entered another trade, an attempt to make up for the loss.

Note: I don't like to enter another trade as an attempt to make up for my loss after I already lost some pips, but I believe the trick to this strategy is finding a pair with a decent win percentage and having a nice risk to reward.

Please understand that these results were done through simple observation of price action in relation to the template I used. The observations were started from July 1st to September 26th 2010.

First some terms...

win = the amount of pips gained

loss = the amount of pips lost

null = a trade was triggered, but price action never reached either the stop loss or target profit levels. I never added a null trade as a gain or loss, that would be dependant upon the trader whenever the traders determines to exit the trade for whatever reason.

win % = the percentage of trades that I would win

RR = risk to reward, for example a 1:2 ratio means for every 1 pip you risk, you should statistically gain 2 pips.

Note: Notice how after the pair I have either (60) or (80), this was the number I used for the size of the range, if the range exceeded the number, I skipped the trade. The increase in number is due to the increase in volatility of certain pairs.

Rules

Whenever the top or bottom of the range is price by price action, I entered 3 trades, My first trade TP would target #1, second trade would target #2, third trade would target #3.

Note: Becareful with a range less then 30.

Now for the results...

USD Big Dog Breakout Strategy 90 Days July 1st - Sept 26

USDCHF (60)

win: +38, +36, +74, +54, +86, +94, +86, +48, +115, +47, +39, +125, +97, +120, +68, +35, +36, +41, +91, +101, +119, +57, +20, +84, +48 = +1759 pips

loss: -38, -45, -36, -33, -48, -30, -44, -30 = -304

Null: 12

win % = 75%

RR: 1:5.7

No Trade: 18

EURUSD (60)

win: +68, +63, +46, +30 +46, +60, +56, +39, +59, +58, +48, +49, +46, +40, +66, +57, +75, +53, +54, +80, +36, +57, +92, +44, +101, +54, +49, +165 = +1691 pips

loss: -26, -31, -39, -33, -49, -41, -45, -19, -39 = -322

Null: 6

win % = 75%

RR: 1:5.2

No Trade: 26

EURJPY (80)

win: +50, +99, +181, +48, +42, +101, +64, +70, +49, +123, +68, +66, +73, +167, +75, +94, +130, +99, +106, +116, +105, +51, +51, +35, +241, +51, +81, +43, +64 = +2,543 pips

loss: -28, -38, -27, -68, -56, -49, -68, -37, -37, -28, -76, -67, -63, -59, -55, -59, -68, -54, -31 = -968 pips

Null: 12

win % = 60%

RR: 1:2.6

No Trade: 13

GBPCHF (80)

win: +106, +48, +62, +78, +119, +43, +57, +74, +101, +139, +68, +149, +62, +77, +117, +188, +65, +139, +60, +71, +64, +43, +137, +198, +55, +95, +99 = +2,514 pips

loss: -47, -49, -62, -66, -77, -55, -69, -77, -56, -56, -71 = -685 pips

Null: 3

win % = 71%

RR: 1:3.67

No Trade: 31

GBPJPY (80)

win: +42, +174, +196, +141, +137, +48, +69, +115, +102, +72, +117, +56, +59, +146, +157, +135, +141, +35, +65, +114, +146, +110, +59, +52, +43, +88 = +2,619 pips

loss: -69, -73, -48, -44, -39, -73, -61, -60, -54, -50, -36, -66, -63, -44 = -780 pips

Null: 7

win % = 65%

RR: 1:3.3

No Trade: 23

GBPUSD (60)

win: +58, +45, +44, +47, +83, +133, +38, +130, +77, +102, +133, +52, +36, +133, +54, +104, +52, +104, +92, +29, +45, +57, +104 = +1,752 pips

loss: -46, -45, -46, -57, -38, -59, -57, -52, -36, -55, -57, -52, -48 = -648 pips

Null: 3

win % = 63%

RR: 1:2.7

No Trade: 27

USDCAD (60)

win: +47, +33, +53, +47, +32, +91, +99, +51, +79, +75, +55, +47, +40, +31, +70 = +850 pips

loss: -26, -26, -42, -51, -29, -25, -32, -58, -57, -37, -35, -44, -51, -26, -35, -20, -44, -38, -39 = -715 pips

Null: 9

win % = 44%

RR: 1:1.1

No Trade: 23

Note: I've uploaded the exact same template I used, if you would like to test it yourself, have fun. Be sure to change box size depending on the pair, the higher the volatility the higher the number.

In my conclusion, I believe its worth it to demo test USDCHF, EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY and GBPCHF. If after demo testing for a period of 3 months minimum concur with my results, then it may become quite profitable to trade this strategy.

eurisko
I should say an speciall thanks too you.
Keep going on , I am reading this post.

Hi Eurisko,

Thank you for your input. Is this base on NY time? (7am-9am?

PS: nice template. thx.

Hey CostaRica,

Yes, its based on NY Time. Keep in mind, I'm using FXDD as my demo broker, they have a +3 GMT. So the template is configured with a +3 setting, you should check with your broker to make sure you have the correct settings.

Yes Sir, I changed the time already, however, it was with 0:15 minutes. Is those extra minutes something extra? 7am to 9:15am ?

Hmm...

There shouldn't be anything extra, could you tell me, what settings you have set? What you changed? Who's your broker?

Hi Eurisko,

This is what your indicator has:
info: 3 Tier London Breakout V.3.2b
Start Time: 06:00
End Time: 09:14

So, my question is why does it have 14 minutes extra? is it part of ur strategy? or it is a mistake.

By the way, my setting is start @ 11:00 and end @ 13:00 because I am in NY time and finally, my broker is forex.com

Thanks again,

hey CostaRica,

I checked my template and it loads 14:00 - 16:00, after reading what you said, I suspected you accidentally pressed the reset button, when I pressed the reset button after loading my template, it gave me those exact same numbers.

I just checked with Forex.com, they said it should be...

Start Time: 11:00
End Time: 13:00

I'm happy with this strategy. thanks again.

Hi Eurisko

Thanks for your strategy input. Just want to make sure I got all the file in the right places:

Indicatores go in platformexpertsindicators
Templets go in platformtemplates

I loaded all on chart, but the Moveing average does not do anything when I double click to load it. Is that ok ?

How do you handle a trade that opens, but then just floats. Not hitting S/L or T/P1. How long should it be left open ?

On the chart there is a blue or orange color block.on the CHF/USD Orange if range is (60) and blue is less. Is this corect: no trade when orange and trade when blue ?

lastly, do trade al 3 session (Asian,Londen and US)

Thanks

kakhuis,

Here is where your indicators and templates should go.

Indicators -> Crogram Files -> MetaTrader 4 -> experts -> indicators

Templates -> Crogram Files -> MetaTrader 4 -> templates

The moving average is just suppose to be displayed on the chart, do you see a large purple line?

If a trade "floats" around, never hitting a stop loss or target profit, it means the market is ranging. Before the next full day of trading, remember you will have another Asian and European session. Based upon technical or fundamental reason, if you as a trader believe the trade will gain profit then leave it open, if not then just close it. Its better to close the trade before the next full day.

Only trade the blue boxes, stay away from the orange boxes.

You are only trading this strategy during U.S. 7am - 9am.

Let me know if you have any other questions.

Hi

Thanks for the quick reply. That answer my questions for now. just set up everything today on EUR/USD and USD/CHF. Will demo them and see how it goes. If I have any other questions can I post here or do you mind giving me your email ?

Thanks

Does this auto trade for you or just draw the box? I have an EA that I built/commissioned off this strategy that actually auto trades. I would be willing to share it if we are trying to maximize this.

hey Kakhuis,

if you have any questions please feel free sending me a private message (pm) on here. I will answer your question the best that I can.

You can send me a pm when you click my profile located here.

hey bmwboyee,

No, this doesn't auto trade, it just draws the box. If you will, please share the EA on this thread, I'm sure some people will be interested in the possible results.

Hi Eurisko

Because I am still a jnr member I cannot see your contact info on your profile. My post still get check by admin before it is post. Anyway.

Have some questions.

Do you wait to place the pending orders of Buy and Sell after the 3 hour bar has closed ?

How long should the pending order be left to be filled. I see some times that the can take a very long time to be triggered. 12 and more hours.

Thanks

Hi Eurisko

You place 3 order and then use T/P 1,2 and 3. I can only place 1 order. If I go live I will have a small ac and can place only 1 order. How would I manage the trade to get max amount of pips ?

Thanks

Hi Eurisko

Intersting comments, I have tried to load the template you atatched in the zip folder a few days ago but my computer "Says No"!

Can you please attach unzipped?

Thanks

WickstedFX

I would wait for the 16:00 (NY 9am) candle bar to close, then place buy and sell stops. If price action doesn't trigger a trade to occur during U.S. session, I would close any pending orders before Asian session opens.

Each new day there is a new setup, I wouldn't leave a trade open for too long.