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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #75,701
  • Sep 27, 2010 2:59pm Sep 27, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting james16
chart
That's a pretty whacking great BUOB off a PPZ

There's such a difference between looking and being able to see..
Anything can happen.
  • #75,702
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:01pm Sep 27, 2010 3:01pm
hey jim

going long based on that BUOB wouldn't be a good idea IMO,not much space,stuck in that box. ???
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  • #75,703
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:01pm Sep 27, 2010 3:01pm
Does this look like a 'wait for break + retest then PA when price has flipped' contender?
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Anything can happen.
  • #75,704
  • Edited 3:20pm Sep 27, 2010 3:07pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Taz

I am sorry I read this a few times but am not totally sure what your question is. Can you rephrase it maybe. I am having monday brain

Thanks
Mike
Hey Mike,
I am just asking,that will the buob or beob forming within the pattern at the end of untying of the coils or breakout mode fail or work.
Because there is always a pullback into the pattern,so the buob or beob in the pattern is unable to reach it's full potential.
Hope i am clear,i was also having monday brain i guess , that is why i could not make it clear.
Look at my chart it is also a triangle breakout.
Have a look.

This Post relates to when i first said, if i can play the breakout when the bar on Eur/gbp closes as beob inside the pattern ,but you said wait for pullback then get big buob's and big beobs.

If both are beob then why not play it just inside the pattern.


http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/264/myquestion.gif


Regards
Taz
  • #75,705
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:07pm Sep 27, 2010 3:07pm
  •  jdl
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: going to master this or die trying | 101 Posts
Quoting mbqb11
Hey JDL

Oanda and MB trading have a ton of pairs

Best
Mike
Thanks Mike. I just noticed MB Trading is 7 hour behind NY close. I know that all time frames are considered equally valid views of price aggregation. But I also though you prefered NY close for daily, no? You find no issues with the MB Trading daily close timeframe?
Thanks,
JDL
  • #75,706
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:14pm Sep 27, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting onlydragon
A season is opened guys

come here and signup

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257752
Hi (posted again as posted in wrong area!)

Well that input from Onlydragon was pretty offensive, characteristic of many jibes at J16 which I feel is full of incredibly generous free stuff with great humour.

Having said that, I can never quite get a handle on how much % return one might reasonably expect to earn on a given investment in trading. As I guess we are all in this venture partly out of interest but ultimately I suppose to make some money one day (no different to any other job in that respect) and I quite accept that, as with most things, what you get out is very much dependant on the time and effort one is prepared to put in. Nevertheless when embarking on a long term venture e.g studying medicine, law, cabinet making – whatever, one usually has some idea of where in the overall scale of remuneration/expertise one reasonably might expect to achieve. I can’t say I find it easy to get a sense of that in this business - it all seems a bit vague? After all, surely as traders, we should have a reasonably keen sense of return on investment be it time or money.

I know I will probably be thought to be speaking well out of turn and I don’t want to be seen to be detracting from the obviously very generous contributions from everyone on this thread particularly the seniors. The size and longevity of this thread has been going is the most obvious testament to its genuiness and clear success. Jibes at J16 are so offensive as to lose all credibility but they cleverly pick on areas such as why no live trades, what are the figures on people’s performance on the private forum etc. In themselves are they not legitimate questions, in effect similar to any due diligence when for example acquiring a business? As a relative newbie I absolutely accept that I have missed the point somewhere but these are the sort of questions I sometimes get asked and I honestly don't have a very clear answer.

Sorry for another Jez ramble - hope no one takes offence at this but just feel better out than in as they say.
  • #75,707
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:45pm Sep 27, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting jspeakman
Hi (posted again as posted in wrong area!)

Well that input from Onlydragon was pretty offensive, characteristic of many jibes at J16 which I feel is full of incredibly generous free stuff with great humour.

Having said that, I can never quite get a handle on how much % return one might reasonably expect to earn on a given investment in trading. As I guess we are all in this venture partly out of interest but ultimately I suppose to make some money one day (no different to any other job in that respect) and I quite accept that, as with most things,...
Questions asked in a thoughtful manner will garner the same respect J, so I thank you for that.

That is the problem with this question is that everyone goals/methods/expectations/risk tolerance varies. I think the best thing is not to have the goals/wants/needs that you need to make 100% a month/year . Instead let your methods dicate that. Understand the potential drawdowns/max DDs of your method and adjust your risk appropriately. I think what most people fail to grasp is what 20-30% a year compounded can lead to. We have one person speak about gaining 60% over the last year and he is literally laughed at for not getting double that. That is the type of disrespect/disillusion/naive posts that make me avoid much outside this thread or get involved in a measuring contest. If anyone is reading this and thinks 60% for the year is not good, then I wish you luck b/c I think your road is going to be a long one.

What will your avg % be? I couldn't even fathom to give you a guess. Some people will risk very small amounts per trade and avg much lower on large accounts. Others might be willing to tolerate a higher DD thus a higher overall avg ROI. I always say though let your methods dicate to the numbers and not start with a number you want in mind. I think that is the backwards approach, in my eyes. You may well land anywhere on this spectrum if you attain a method that gives you profitable returns.

Here are some additional posts that may be of interest to you. Just realize the power of compounding and that what many view as "small returns" are truly where the money is at in the long term.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25753
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25755


Of course at the end of the day these are my opinions and I respect those that may disagree

Mike
  • #75,708
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:46pm Sep 27, 2010 3:46pm
I wish I could came across this thread much sooner, but it's never too late.

Attached is the daily AUDJPY...do you think that pin bar (shooting star) appeared on 9/17 still a valid short trade?

Thanks.
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  • #75,709
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:47pm Sep 27, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting jdl
Thanks Mike. I just noticed MB Trading is 7 hour behind NY close. I know that all time frames are considered equally valid views of price aggregation. But I also though you prefered NY close for daily, no? You find no issues with the MB Trading daily close timeframe?
Thanks,
JDL
Hey JDL

I use FXpro for my daily closing times. The brokers I trade with I don't care what their charts look like. Remember price is price, so it is only a matter of transferring the orders onto whatever client you choose to trade with. They can be based off any chart one desires. Just use the proper pricing of that chart to transfer your orders. If I want to put a sell order below 1.3000, I can do it on any broker I desire, doesn't matter if that broker has an aggregated price chart that shows something different.

Hope that makes sense
Mike
  • #75,710
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:48pm Sep 27, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting candletrader
I wish I could came across this thread much sooner, but it's never too late.

Attached is the daily AUDJPY...do you think that pin bar (shooting star) appeared on 9/17 still a valid short trade?

Thanks.
Hey Candle

IMO this trade is over and done. Price eventually broke the pin and notice it tested the 80 Big round number. I would keep an eye on this area for further info. We are boxing around here, and maybe we can get a big tip off where price wants to go next(think large outside bar engulfing the range)

Best
Mike
  • #75,711
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:51pm Sep 27, 2010 3:51pm
Hey Mike,
Waiting for your reply.
Anyways,i have read you are great at the breakout trades.
What do you say of this formation.
I think it will consolidate below 1.3100 before breaking.
I saw a Pinbar on weekly chart, forming just around this level.

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2226/audnzdib.gif


Regards
Taz
  • #75,712
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:51pm Sep 27, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting 666Doom
Hey Mike,
I am just asking,that will the buob or beob forming within the pattern at the end of untying of the coils or breakout mode fail or work.
Because there is always a pullback into the pattern,so the buob or beob in the pattern is unable to reach it's full potential.
Hope i am clear,i was also having monday brain i guess , that is why i could not make it clear.
Look at my chart it is also a triangle breakout.
Have a look.

[b]This Post relates to when i first said, if i can play the breakout when the bar on Eur/gbp closes as beob inside...

Hey Taz

I may be missing what you are saying again, but if you are asking can you play the outside bar as a preemptive breakout of the pattern the answer is yes and I do this. If the outside bar is pushing right up against the breakout area I use it as a tip off and then do not wait for a pullback.

An example
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  • #75,713
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:53pm Sep 27, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting 666Doom
Hey Mike,
Waiting for your reply.
Anyways,i have read you are great at the breakout trades.
What do you say of this formation.
I think it will consolidate below 1.3100 before breaking.
I saw a Pinbar on weekly chart, forming just around this level.




Regards
Taz
Hey Taz

An ascending type wedge like this can usually be a sign of dieing momentum to the upside. I like to wait for an exhaustive large bar to play a reversal off.
  • #75,714
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:01pm Sep 27, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Taz

I may be missing what you are saying again, but if you are asking can you play the outside bar as a preemptive breakout of the pattern the answer is yes and I do this. If the outside bar is pushing right up against the breakout area I use it as a tip off and then do not wait for a pullback.

An example
Thanks Mike
Bingo you got it Man,but that approach is aggressive,but i believe, is worthwhile.
And about Aud/Nzd, you will wait for Pinbar at the top,right.
Let us see what happens.
Regards
Taz
  • #75,715
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:06pm Sep 27, 2010 4:06pm
  •  jdl
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: going to master this or die trying | 101 Posts
Quoting mbqb11
Hey JDL

I use FXpro for my daily closing times. The brokers I trade with I don't care what their charts look like. Remember price is price, so it is only a matter of transferring the orders onto whatever client you choose to trade with. They can be based off any chart one desires. Just use the proper pricing of that chart to transfer your orders. If I want to put a sell order below 1.3000, I can do it on any broker I desire, doesn't matter if that broker has an aggregated price chart that shows something different.
Mike
Yea, I understand what you're saying. My problem is I need to find a NY daily close for charting that offers as many pairs as the broker I'll use for trading.

Right now I use FXLite for charting and another broker for making the trade. My problem is FXLite doesn't offer nearly as many pairs as MB Trading, but I'm hesitant of using MB for charting due to the daily closing time. I'll try FXPro for charting. Thanks.
  • #75,716
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:16pm Sep 27, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting ppfx
Thanks for the encouragement

The 1.33 is indeed a very good ppz area. I had it marked on my chart since this post .

About that EU trade. I managed to close one position at BE. And the other, i closed 1/2 at 1.3377 for about 60 pips profit and then i moved stops to BE. The second half was then closed at BE when the price went back down, i suspect because of the good news for USD regarding the housing.

Attachment

Nice one ppfx . . was that a touch trade or a PA Inside Bar off the 133.00?

Quoting ppfx
Wow a very nice golf course

I played mini golf here, once with my family when i was about fifteen. We had a lot of fun.
That looks like fun too, ppfx . . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #75,717
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:18pm Sep 27, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting james16
chart
Yes, I tried to preempt the break of this daily BUOB yesterday evening off the 15m-TF. On the 15m-TF price retraced to a 1H-PPZ @ 13240 and gave me a PA via a PB to go long, price reached the high of the engulfing bar (which acts as resistance on the 15m-TF) but wasn't able to break and close above this level. I wanted price to break and close above and then respect that level as support confirmed via PA but it didn't happen, so I closed my position @ 13285.

May the force be with you James.
Pipcrawler
  • #75,718
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:22pm Sep 27, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting mbqb11
Questions asked in a thoughtful manner will garner the same respect J, so I thank you for that.

That is the problem with this question is that everyone goals/methods/expectations/risk tolerance varies....
Hi Mike

Very much appreciate your kind response. I am thinking then that (at some point!) around 15% would not be an unreasonable expectation (sorry in the UK we lurve the double negative!). Definitely not thinking of quitting the day job and just want to see if this might get a better return than most other financial vehicles (which doesn't mean I'm going to sink all my savings into this!).

And it is fascinating stuff, particularly the psychology of such things as BRNs. So super picky it is across a zillion pairs - have to say each day I feel I learn more but know less. That's got to change (one day I hope!) and I really appreciate your kind contributions. Thinking of getting Pring on Price which I gather is good book at my stage of fairly basic understanding.

Thanks again Mike

Jez
  • #75,719
  • Edited 4:44pm Sep 27, 2010 4:33pm | Edited 4:44pm
Hi all, I am new. just joined this forum, have been reading this thread for a few weeks, plan to start practice Pinbar, Price Action, daily chart on demo.

I have two questions:

1) How close between two fib ret. levels become a valid "confluence"? 5 pips, 10 pips? or it all depends which timeframe we looking at.

2) what do anyone think about chfjpy? good pinbar?(more importantly, at good location?)
- pinbar open and close at one end of the bar.
- lot of space on the left of the pinbar.
- right 'eye' bar body within range of left 'eye' bar.
- price punch through and back down below two diff. fib 61.8 levels

Thanks

BT
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  • #75,720
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:43pm Sep 27, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting slade1986
Would the setup on the E/G be considered a 2 day pin bar.

If so, off the 365 ema, close below 85 and the break would be below the 150 ema.

Looking at possibly shorting on the break of the 84.50 and the first FTA around 84.00

Quoting jarroo
Absolutely . . .

A+ setups, like this 2 Day PB on the Eur/Gbp : at a swing High, off a BRN PPZ level .8500, tells alot of info even when they don't break. Good thing we wait for the break.

Since it didn't break, it doesn't qualify as a PB. But what it does tell me is that the momentum to the downside is lost and we have potential for more upside movement.

Now we have a Triple Inside Bar on the Daily or a Dale's Double Inside Bar on the 2 Day time frame all at the .8500 BRN PPZ level . . .somebody alert Dan Gilbert.

A break of either side has Stop Loss protection . .mainly from the .8500.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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