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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #75,681
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:47am Sep 27, 2010 8:47am
Quoting Walcott
Why did I never see Pivot points on your charts guys ?

Isn't it good confluence zones ?

I espect a quick answer from supremeChaos, this guy is too fast
Just a question like an other.
  • #75,682
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:50am Sep 27, 2010 8:50am
Quoting kcardinalis
Mike, you're wonderful....
Hey K

I have done a lot of testing on various aspects of my method on many many pairs yes. But ultimately a backtest is simply a historical approach and thus most of the tweaking to what I do has come over the years from forward live testing and the results of that data and observations. I always watched a lot of pairs, but over time I added more obscure pairs to my daily/weekly watch. As for your goal, I don't think it is a bad one, but I think you should throw timelines out the window with trading. It simply doesn't work like that. We have to let things come at the pace they do for us. I have seen people get it in 6months, and others 6 years(and most never). So instead just keep demoing until your results prove to you that you are ready to inch towards live.

Have a great week
Mike
  • #75,683
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:59am Sep 27, 2010 8:59am
Quoting pwellsau
Hi all

Appreciate any thoughts....
Hey Paul

I like this one how it is engulfing so many bars and off the BRN. The next round number at 1.1600 has a box of consolidation sitting at it so this is a nice area to watch. This is one I would play personally. Buobs that close strong above/below BRNs that straddle multiple bars are very strong signals

Best
Mike
  • #75,684
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:07am Sep 27, 2010 9:07am
Quoting 666Doom
Hey guys,
Now asking seniors to especially look at charts for me would be folly.
So here is my chart.



The 200 SMA is right there around .8545 and also i see it capping the top around 0.8545
And also there is 200 EMA at 0.8488.
And 0.8500 is a good support level.
Price is forming a symmetrical triangle like formation on 4 hourly chart.
The daily bar at present is looking more like a small pinish bar.
But it should be more like a BUOB or BEOB before tomorrow inorder for anyone to take the setup as breakout.
The trendline's forming the triangle...
Hey Taz

For me it is about not overthinking it. Here is how I would look at this situation. Either way price has done nothing to tip its hand yet. If today clsoes as is it would be a very very very tiny I4b, which could be played as a straddle alone at the BRN of 8500(very important area). Now since we are at an important area I will watch the 8500 for information for where price may be going(think big BUOB or big BEOB here).

In terms of a breakout since the trend on the daily right now is down I would only be looking to play a breakout+pullback short on a completed formation. Right now we have the "start" of a channel you have indicated. If price moves lower now retouches the bottom ascending trendline (see chart), I would be watching for that scenario to play out.

Good area to watch though for sure. And I don't like to keep to strong of a bias but rather watch and see how price reacts around these important areas. So we have potentials for long or short and if price moves down then a potential breakout if the pattern gets stronger(bearish flag)

Mike
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  • #75,685
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:18am Sep 27, 2010 9:18am
Quoting damien100
Hi Mike
i See what you mean the trendline was to sloppy to base a trade on, the new high .4100 clear entry point
sorry to keep on this, would you mind explaining when you would consider going to a lower TFS to take trades , it would help tighten up my thinking about this
Thanks
Mike
D
Hey Damien

I will drop a timeframe lower on breakout trades. On the former breakout area we can watch for price action on the pullback( you can use the same timeframe but I like to catch it a bit earlier as the continuation may only go to where price broke out as the trouble area). So for the chart I posted above with my crude drawings for a potential breakout scenario, we would wait for PA on the pullback after price breaks out of the lower trendline. On the pullback to that area(re posted with a red X). Think of it as a diagonal PPZ.

Again simple and obvious is always the easiest and best. Same goes for the patterns lines we use.

Best
Mike
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  • #75,686
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:22am Sep 27, 2010 9:22am
Hey guys,

General question on S/R.

In a bullish trend, as price breaks through a resistance level and bounces back to that level which now acts as support, we look for bullish PA before entering the trade. But what happens if price fails to break through resistance, moves downwards for a bit before moving back up to the resistance line with bearish PA. Other than it being countrend, is it still advisable to enter such a trade?
  • #75,687
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:38am Sep 27, 2010 9:38am
Quoting melvin87
Hey guys,

General question on S/R.

In a bullish trend, as price breaks through a resistance level and bounces back to that level which now acts as support, we look for bullish PA before entering the trade. But what happens if price fails to break through resistance, moves downwards for a bit before moving back up to the resistance line with bearish PA. Other than it being countrend, is it still advisable to enter such a trade?
Hey Melvin it sounds like you are describing a double top which is a good area to watch for price action. Especially if you have divergence. So yes depending on the look this is for sure an area of interest. Former highs that the market couldn't break when price revisits are great places to look for PA. Same with lows

Best
Mike
  • #75,688
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:06am Sep 27, 2010 11:06am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Melvin it sounds like you are describing a double top which is a good area to watch for price action. Especially if you have divergence. So yes depending on the look this is for sure an area of interest. Former highs that the market couldn't break when price revisits are great places to look for PA. Same with lows

Best
Mike
Ahh okok. Never thought of it as a double-top. Thanks again Mike!
  • #75,689
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:23am Sep 27, 2010 11:23am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey K

I have done a lot of testing on various aspects of my method on many many pairs yes....
Thanks for the advice! To be honest, most of the reason for setting a time goal for me has to do with discipline/anxiety problems, and not so much with impatience--I am one who has a tendency to fixate on problems and not move forward when I should, rather than plow blindly ahead (and I must find a balance). Three years I've been doing starts and stops, some of it unavoidable, but a lot of it very avoidable, as it was the result of my own trepidations and sloth.

I finally have a theory as to why my tests of data prior to 2010 were good, and after weren't. Just as you say pairs often go through dry periods, perhaps prior to 2010, the GBPJPY and the GBPCHF were going through a period where they had a lot of great setups--which I tested by coincidence, not -knowing- they were in great locations and well formed. I'm going to look back over my old results after I polish up on my reading with the link you sent to see if this is the case. Maybe the trades I did lose at that time were due to the same reason for the trades I'm losing now. I think once I understand -why- my backtests succeeded and failed, I can focus on demo again, and then I'll know what to look for in terms of ideal setups across more pairs.

Thanks again for bringing some focus to my quest. You've been a huge help.

K.
  • #75,690
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:28am Sep 27, 2010 11:28am
Hi Mike,

You are saying that the BEOB and BUOB will form at BRN of 0.8500 at the time of the Pullback and not inside the pattern(the one forming inside it and closing outside it below a BRN and we play it then.)

Now my doubt is during consolidation breakout, the breakout which is for sure, is confirmed by Buob or Beob bar at the end of breakout.
We don't have a pullback in them,we directly play them as normal BUOB or BEOB.
The Consolidation i'm talking about in the first case is a 5-7 bar consolidation.

So why not in the triangle breakouts, we play the beob and buob directly forming in pattern and ending outside it,is it because in this case there is BRN below this formation,and there is always a pullback at them.

I'm asking this because the breakout trades i have seen at the end are rather working because of whiplash, which cause the price to break in opposite direction.
Or
We see a breakout and then pullback and then the play.
Or
We see a consolidation and then sudden BUOB or BEOB in them signalling direct move ,without trouble,and we take them easily as buob and beob breakouts.

And sure if you say that it is bearish flag,as it is,so we may have a continuation pinbar right below the lower end of the flag at pullback.

Regards
Taz


http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/8119/eurgbptrade.gif
  • #75,691
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:30am Sep 27, 2010 11:30am
charts
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  • #75,692
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:33am Sep 27, 2010 11:33am
I joined this thread,after reading it,it sure is a great piece of work.
As always great chart's, James.
The most awaited content in this thread.
Regards
Taz
  • #75,693
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:37am Sep 27, 2010 11:37am
chart
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  • #75,694
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:52am Sep 27, 2010 11:52am
Quoting james16
chart
Because it is a PPZ Area ?
  • #75,695
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:54am Sep 27, 2010 11:54am
Quoting john225
Because it is a PPZ Area ?
Also, BRN (1.30000) = confluence?
  • #75,696
  • Edited 12:39pm Sep 27, 2010 12:11pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting james16
chart
The bar highs are looking like resistance that might bounce price down to at least the shaded area?

Possible DBHLC?
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Anything can happen.
  • #75,697
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:23pm Sep 27, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting kcardinalis
Thanks for the advice!...
Maybe the problem is that you are trading the Yen pair (GBPJPY). I read from the master himself that the Yen pairs can act differently than other pairs. Anyway here is the link: click. And the CHF can also be tricky when the SNB acts.
  • #75,698
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:38pm Sep 27, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting 666Doom
Hi Mike,

You are saying that the BEOB and BUOB will form at BRN of 0.8500 at the time of the Pullback and not inside the pattern(the one forming inside it and closing outside it below a BRN and we play it then.)

Now my doubt is during consolidation breakout, the breakout which is for sure, is confirmed by Buob or Beob bar at the end of breakout.
We don't have a pullback in them,we directly play them as normal BUOB or BEOB.
The Consolidation i'm talking about in the first case is a 5-7 bar consolidation.

So why not in the triangle breakouts,...
Hey Taz

I am sorry I read this a few times but am not totally sure what your question is. Can you rephrase it maybe. I am having monday brain

Thanks
Mike
  • #75,699
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:50pm Sep 27, 2010 12:50pm
chart

Quoting james16
chart
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  • #75,700
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:52pm Sep 27, 2010 12:52pm
hey jim

here is the answer,but what i don't know is will you wait for a PA or short it based on a touch trade?
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