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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,561
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:55am Sep 23, 2010 9:55am
Quoting I like steak
USDCAD has been in downtrend now for 7 days with no retrace.

At these levels it may bounce going into close of the week.

Some positive div on macd 240, bull div on 60 looks better.

The blue lines highlights some levels (confluence) on the way up.

Monthly still bullish.
The weakness of CAD this week / inability to make new closing highs against the $ while other majors did:

If we get a weekly close above 10350, then the weekly turns bullish together with the monthly.
  • #3,562
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:22am Sep 23, 2010 11:22am
Quoting I like steak
The weakness of CAD this week / inability to make new closing highs against the $ while other majors did:

If we get a weekly close above 10350, then the weekly turns bullish together with the monthly.
Hey Steak, I've been holding longs since the low 1.0200 region and looking for 1.0600, however, the more I look at the charts the more the weekly and monthly show me potential to break to the high of the 1.0200/1.0700 range.

The USD has gotten hit today and last night and I was surprised to see how well USD/CAD has held up. I feel this speaks volumes... holding it's ground relatively well when the USD gets hit and then rallying when the USD is able to take some ground back resulting in higher and higher prices.

I'm no expert in this pair and was wondering what you see here long-term.

Thanks!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #3,563
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:00pm Sep 23, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting Geppy
I'm no expert in this pair and was wondering what you see here long-term.

Thanks!
CAD has been soft. One can view it from a diamond-pattern perspective and get to approximately 11400 after break out. (See Belekas' thread)

So 11400 seems realistic after normal key levels towards 11400.

I am still learning EW but applied some calcs on the monthly and it looks a bit "far fetched" to the upside...

Which either way, it looks like breaking out to the upside. I am also new to this pair but feel more comfortable risking here than with the intervened crosses.

What do you see long term?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,564
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:53pm Sep 23, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting I like steak
CAD has been soft. One can view it from a diamond-pattern perspective and get to approximately 11400 after break out. (See Belekas' thread)

So 11400 seems realistic after normal key levels towards 11400.

I am still learning EW but applied some calcs on the monthly and it looks a bit "far fetched" to the upside...

Which either way, it looks like breaking out to the upside. I am also new to this pair but feel more comfortable risking here than with the intervened crosses.

What do you see long term?
Thanks for the reply. "Long-term" I see it hard for the USD to really put a huge rally up against the CAD. That being said, a rally to 1.14 or so does not seem out of the question from a technical perspective.

Again, I'm not versed in this pair at all and I'll check out the thread you pointed out. I'll hold on to my longs though and see what materializes in the next few weeks. I have plenty of other trades I can actively manage and it will be a nice exercise in discipline to see if I can hold this long-term.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #3,565
  • Sep 23, 2010 2:09pm Sep 23, 2010 2:09pm
Hi
I stopped trade this pair but took a look on it and this my Chart tell my view in long term (Almost The Time & Price)
GL All
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  • #3,566
  • Sep 23, 2010 5:31pm Sep 23, 2010 5:31pm
a nice flag forming on the h1.

Flag pole = 160 pips
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  • #3,567
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:29pm Sep 23, 2010 7:29pm
Quoting Geppy
Thanks for the reply. "Long-term" I see it hard for the USD to really put a huge rally up against the CAD. That being said, a rally to 1.14 or so does not seem out of the question from a technical perspective.

Again, I'm not versed in this pair at all and I'll check out the thread you pointed out. I'll hold on to my longs though and see what materializes in the next few weeks. I have plenty of other trades I can actively manage and it will be a nice exercise in discipline to see if I can hold this long-term.
The U/C has been my money maker for the last year, I simply start buying a 1.0280 with small lots, doubling up at 1.0200, then again at 1.0100 and again at 1.0000, with orders waiting down until 0.9800.. TP set at 1.0700..

Patience has been the hardest part of trading this way, and really I think it has helped my overall trading ability.

Cheers
  • #3,568
  • Sep 25, 2010 8:11pm Sep 25, 2010 8:11pm
Mthly: when the 0650/0250 range is broken- the move should be volatile {no s**t Sherlock} These are the barriers that I am watching ( & trade up to/down to)

M techs are down.

Wly: techs are down with >0341 signal buy & <0250 = sell

D tf: sell <0240

I be US/CAD bear

Of course, the fundamentals will probably, skewer the techsbut that be fx trading.

May the PIP GOD be with you
  • #3,569
  • Sep 25, 2010 9:11pm Sep 25, 2010 9:11pm
interesting
  • #3,570
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:46pm Sep 25, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting Cdawg
The U/C has been my money maker for the last year, I simply start buying a 1.0280 with small lots, doubling up at 1.0200, then again at 1.0100 and again at 1.0000, with orders waiting down until 0.9800.. TP set at 1.0700..

Patience has been the hardest part of trading this way, and really I think it has helped my overall trading ability.

Cheers

interesting but wad happen if it goes below 0.98? buy more?
  • #3,571
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:23am Sep 26, 2010 5:23am
We need to start a thread for FTSE100 .
  • #3,572
  • Sep 26, 2010 3:06pm Sep 26, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting yuan83
interesting but wad happen if it goes below 0.98? buy more?
Or if it doesnt move back to 1.07 ?
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #3,573
  • Sep 28, 2010 3:13am Sep 28, 2010 3:13am
Article by FXSol:

Throughout the worldwide economic recovery, if Australia was in first place, Canada would of not been too far behind at second. While Australia has show the rest of the world how strong their economy and recovery is, Canada has had impressive data until now. While the other major currencies have done tremendously well over the dollar throughout the past couple of months the Canadian dollar has not been able to strengthen as much. Part of that is because if the US gets sick, Canada will most likely catch part if not all of what the US has. Positive signs are starting to wane and this Thursday could be the catalyst for further weakness. For the first time since last year, Canada is forecasting a negative number for GDP at -0.1%. Leading up to this news event, we could see several Canadian bulls unwind their positions.

Tonight's chart is focusing on 1.04 resistance level. It is at this price level we could see the USD/CAD rally run out of steam. We do not maintain a long term bias whatsoever for this pair, as it has been ranged bound and the fundamentals have not consistently supported a weaker Canadian dollar. "

For me (chart at bottom), good buy areas during the week will be at the support diamond pattern trendline till Thursday. (First Resistance at 10380)

Interesting the see FXSol does not anticipate a big move up.

Thursday is CAD GDP day and also end of month/quarter and for some hedge funds end of year...
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  • #3,574
  • Sep 28, 2010 3:31pm Sep 28, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting I like steak
Article by FXSol:

[i]Throughout the worldwide economic recovery, if Australia was in first place, Canada would of not been too far behind at second. While Australia has show the rest of the world how strong their economy and recovery is, Canada has had impressive data until now. While the other major currencies have done tremendously well over the dollar throughout the past couple of months the Canadian dollar has not been able to strengthen as much. Part of that is because if the US gets sick, Canada will most likely catch part if not all of...
All tho your reasoning seems right, and I'm no spert on this pair, or any, carefull with the dollar I like steak, everybody is beating on it, and this guy is very bearish on the dollar, and I trust him a lot in the long term, now if you are thinking just a retrac, good

from the yurow tread by bootleager
“It would be irresponsible in the extreme for an individual to forestall a personal recession by taking out newer, bigger loans when the old loans can´t be repaid. However, this is precisely what we are planning on a national level. I believe these ideas hold sway largely because they promise happy, pain-free solutions. They are the economic equivalent of miracle weight-loss programs that require no dieting or exercise. The theories permit economists to claim mystic wisdom, governments to pretend that they have the power to dispel hardship with the whir of a printing press, and voters to believe that they can have recovery without sacrifice”. Peter Schiff

__________________
The Chonchy
  • #3,575
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:08pm Sep 28, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting chonchy
All tho your reasoning seems right, and I'm no spert on this pair, or any, carefull with the dollar I like steak, everybody is beating on it, and this guy is very bearish on the dollar, and I trust him a lot in the long term, now if you are thinking just a retrac, good

__________________

Hola mi amigo, gracias para el advertencia/precaución

Please also see my previous posts last week for reasoning. With Thursday being last day of quarter/year I anticipate USD to be soft till then.

I will check the levels carefully.

Bueno adios
  • #3,576
  • Sep 28, 2010 8:33pm Sep 28, 2010 8:33pm
Sell Stop: 0240 TP: 0175

US$ weakness & Cad must play catch up with OZ & KIWI.

CAD news Thurs should be good for intraday pips. Not enough to drive the pair out of its Mly range (where the trend should begin).
  • #3,577
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:02pm Sep 29, 2010 9:02pm
AUD/CAD hit parity

Loonie not following other comdolls.

I shall watch for oz/cad longs & cad/chf shorts with CAD news tomorrow
  • #3,578
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:07pm Oct 1, 2010 1:07pm
1.02 level now... canadian dollar has gain some strength
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #3,579
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:39pm Oct 1, 2010 8:39pm
Dtf: up TL ( 5 Aug-22 Sept) 0205.
will it hold or be broken significantly?
Will it give PA direction or is it stop-hunting?
Chinese PMI gave a push to risk-on.
CAD still weak wrt Euro, oz (tied to USD).

Keep your stick on the ice.
  • #3,580
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:47pm Oct 5, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting Scarecru
Dtf: up TL ( 5 Aug-22 Sept) 0205.
will it hold or be broken significantly?
Will it give PA direction or is it stop-hunting?
Chinese PMI gave a push to risk-on.
CAD still weak wrt Euro, oz (tied to USD).

Keep your stick on the ice.
UP TL (Dtf) broken.

MacD < signal & RSI < 50.

I'm short with 0106 TP.

US data gave push to risk-on
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