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AUD/USD

  • #23,481
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting Warwick
Quite simple....

69% Short ,...
i agreed too,but wouldnt also be that if more positions are on e "Short" side,e driving force to e downtrend would be STRONGER??
  • #23,482
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting Warwick
Quite simple....

69% Short , 31% Long
206 Short 99 Long

Short Avg. Price = .9237
Long Avg. Price = .9504


There are simply more stop-losses layered into the upper levels. I.e. it is more profitable for (fill in blank) to drive this pair higher. Forget Fundamentals, its just the way of the market.

Who knows, maybe the RBA will step in and save the day for you guys - However I doubt this will happen as the Aussies seem very fond of a high AUD for whatever reason; that and the RBA is not well as equipped to deal with intervention as the BOJ...

"Quite simple....

69% Short , 31% Long
206 Short 99 Long

Short Avg. Price = .9237
Long Avg. Price = .9504
"

where do we get those stats from ?
  • #23,483
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:38pm Sep 22, 2010 9:38pm
That's what I want to know.

Warwick are you working for a broker?
You seem to know a lot about how many traders are short/long, plus knowing about the stop losses.
How'd you ever figure those figures out?

Not that there's anything wrong with that ;-)
  • #23,484
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:39pm Sep 22, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting fxking
i agreed too,but wouldnt also be that if more positions are on e "Short" side,e driving force to e downtrend would be STRONGER??
Not quite, IMO such a concept is merely an illusion or a facade to pacify traders in a lopsided situation.

Look at what the USD/JPY did when 80+% of traders were long. IT SUNK REAL FAST AND STEADY, draining accounts and hitting stop losses.


Everyone cannot make money, not at the same time at least.
  • #23,485
  • Sep 22, 2010 10:23pm Sep 22, 2010 10:23pm
could be a simple reason like...

-the usd is weak.
-the aussie govn doesn't care what happens to the currency now coz all is awesome.

It is not really that the aussie doller is getting stronger. The usd is just weaker.

Just because you are shorting doesn't mean market forces agree with you. If price doesn't like that support/resistance, it will usually make a U turn really quick. If it lingers around that area too long, i would usually bet a breakout in the direction of the original trend... which in this case is up.

my 2 pips.
  • #23,486
  • Sep 22, 2010 10:36pm Sep 22, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting thelws
It is not really that the aussie doller is getting stronger. The usd is just weaker.
Both actually

Using CCFp indi clearly shows AUD strengthening as the days go by - vice versa with USD.
Attached Image
  • #23,487
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:24pm Sep 22, 2010 11:24pm
Touching 0.9529 again b4 climbing...!?

  • #23,488
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:27pm Sep 22, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting thelws
could be a simple reason like...

-the usd is weak.
-the aussie govn doesn't care what happens to the currency now coz all is awesome.

It is not really that the aussie doller is getting stronger. The usd is just weaker.


my 2 pips.
agreed
  • #23,489
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:10am Sep 23, 2010 12:10am
Aud is yo-yoing...now,again at ard 0.9560 ish.....
  • #23,490
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:31am Sep 23, 2010 12:31am
Quoting Warwick

69% Short , 31% Long
206 Short 99 Long

Short Avg. Price = .9237
Long Avg. Price = .9504
Where did you get these figures from?
  • #23,491
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:37am Sep 23, 2010 12:37am
AUD/USD has been a haven for scalping since Tuesday night, it helped me recovering all the previous week losses
  • #23,492
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:46am Sep 23, 2010 12:46am
Quoting the-game
That's what I want to know.

Warwick are you working for a broker?
You seem to know a lot about how many traders are short/long, plus knowing about the stop losses.
How'd you ever figure those figures out?

Not that there's anything wrong with that ;-)

This info is easy to get. You can gett it weekly here. http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C...f-Traders.aspx

The problem is its week old data but usually accurate unles there has been big moves in one currency pair or another.

As for knowing where stops are. All pros know most retail traders will put stops above or below an area of supp or res. Thats why you see price just break levels only to turn and reverse especially during news events.

Do a search for a book called Master the markets and you will get a good perspective on how pros manipulate things in their favor. Even if you dont use the technique they teach its enlightning as a retail trader.

Happy pipin
  • #23,493
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:50am Sep 23, 2010 12:50am
Gone SHORT for 150 pips !







Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,494
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:54am Sep 23, 2010 12:54am
Quoting Pip Hunterr
This info is easy to get. You can gett it weekly here. http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C...f-Traders.aspx
...
Happy pipin
Thank you so much for the information :-)
  • #23,495
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:10am Sep 23, 2010 1:10am
Quoting the-game
That's what I want to know.

Warwick are you working for a broker?
You seem to know a lot about how many traders are short/long, plus knowing about the stop losses.
How'd you ever figure those figures out?

Not that there's anything wrong with that ;-)
Trader above is correct, said data is easily attainable. Just gotta do research. If I worked for a broker, I'd be rich!!!

Well as far as stop losses are concerned Its something that I've developed over the years. Started off fresh and green, quickly learned that 90% of the time markets will go where stops are clustered, to add, fundamentals are merely used to serve as a catalyst in driving price levels there.

I've seen it happen tooooo many times. Like deja-vu

When USD/CAD dipped under parity
When USD/JPY broke the 83 barrier
When the EURO topped out at 1.60
When Cable was at the 1.36 level
When the Kiwi was nearing lifetime highs

Can we guess what was the common factor in each event?



.... I can state a few more but you get the picture.

I dunno, just my trading style. I trade when traders begin to get greedy and careless and when the retail market hurts the most. As some are with AUD/USD right now.

Also ForexFactory is a great tool, I LOVE it when traders go large or all in and sound as confident as the lord himself.

Just my .2$


Ok enough blah blah.

Neutral on AUD/USD ---- Although I suspect relief for shorts is imminent.
  • #23,496
  • Sep 23, 2010 2:10am Sep 23, 2010 2:10am
long wicks on 4h suggesting resistance. time to go short is close . tonites data in us will possibly provide that long awaited opportunity.

I dont see aud moving up i the interim
  • #23,497
  • Sep 23, 2010 2:59am Sep 23, 2010 2:59am
- Heard earlier reports of a temp US Dollar shortage down under as natives flocked to take advantage of the strong Aussie.

Figured it would happen before the weekend, dealers prob. got tired of waiting for a better rate.

But anything could happen, buyers could appear again.
  • #23,498
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:08am Sep 23, 2010 4:08am
Well the bears have been waiting for the test on the downside.
Unfortunately most have no doubt cut above 9530.
Whats left is the longer term holders.
A break below .9500 has signalled an exit but Im sure there are a few more stubborn players looking at .9450 to exit.
We may see a test of .9380 if the snowball runs as many trying to pick a base on the way down.
  • #23,499
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:18am Sep 23, 2010 4:18am
i smell a v.BIG bear is coming our way! Major banking stocks r trading in red now...Aud,IMO will have a free fall,when gold starts to fall
  • #23,500
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:24am Sep 23, 2010 4:24am
dxy at major support around 79.53, dji at major resistance + audusd is now at a nice support around .9490, this may as well test .9654 before falling down but dunno, just my 2c.
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