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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,461
  • Sep 19, 2010 5:28pm Sep 19, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting dan89
Hey Shahab and others, i was wondering how you would 'play' rsi divergence. If you look at this chart, how could you play this short term down move (100 pips) using the RSI Divergence that shows up ? how would you determine where to place your entry ?

Attachment
I myself usually set a limit order at the previous high/low when there is mutliple TF classic Div, and I use one ATR of the main TF (usually 4hr) as my SL in this case it is around 45 pips
  • #4,462
  • Sep 19, 2010 6:01pm Sep 19, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
I myself usually set a limit order at the previous high/low when there is mutliple TF classic Div, and I use one ATR of the main TF (usually 4hr) as my SL in this case it is around 45 pips
Hey thanks for the reply shahab. One thing im confused about is, once we have actually noticed the div wouldnt it be too late to enter at the previous high since price would of passed this point already ? Im trying to learn how to trade Divergence beucase it seems very good especially on the larger TF - 4H and Daily. Do you have any chart examples that you could show me ?
  • #4,463
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:02am Sep 20, 2010 5:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Aussie: Still in Uptrend as far as S at .9330 holds

Swissy: Still in Downtrend as far as R at 1.0187 holds
A/U +70 pips
U/Chf +60 pips
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  • #4,464
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:17am Sep 20, 2010 7:17am
Quoting dan89
Hey thanks for the reply shahab. One thing im confused about is, once we have actually noticed the div wouldnt it be too late to enter at the previous high since price would of passed this point already ? Im trying to learn how to trade Divergence beucase it seems very good especially on the larger TF - 4H and Daily. Do you have any chart examples that you could show me ?
My advise would be to not trade divergences until you've learned to make consistent money WITH the trend.

Counter trend trading takes many years of experience in my humble (lost thousands of dollars trying it) experience.
  • #4,465
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:20am Sep 20, 2010 7:20am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U +70 pips
U/Chf +60 pips
What made you enter the U/CHF trade at that point. Was is the previous resistence area that you thought would turn into support ?
  • #4,466
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:21am Sep 20, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Standard Oil
My advise would be to not trade divergences until you've learned to make consistent money WITH the trend.

Counter trend trading takes many years of experience in my humble (lost thousands of dollars trying it) experience.
Hey thanks for the reply. I think i will take your advice and stick to trend trading.
  • #4,467
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:27am Sep 20, 2010 7:27am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U +70 pips
U/Chf +60 pips
2 very nice trades sir.

I was curious what your opinions about the USDCAD Short were.

Non-Commercial longs decreased -15,920 and shorts increased 1,328

I saw your two trades above clear enough but I thought the usd/cad was a better trade it's working ok but not as well as the other 2, what did I miss?.

Also

Is there a specific book or web site you recommend for understanding the COT a little better.

Thanks
  • #4,468
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:05am Sep 20, 2010 8:05am
Quoting dan89
Hey thanks for the reply. I think i will take your advice and stick to trend trading.
Pls always bear in mind trend trading depends on the time frame. If you have a move counter trend to your higher time frame and you are seeing divergence on a lower time frame for a continuation of trend .......... you get the picture.

Also Shahab8 (yes one of the best traders around no question) often has divergence showing at the key levels he has identified. So yes he's trading divergence but its also the key level it occurs at thats important.
  • #4,469
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:45am Sep 20, 2010 10:45am
Quoting BlackStone
+280
what nice Harmonic market
+60
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,470
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:40pm Sep 20, 2010 5:40pm
Gold: dont miss this

1st chart: my old Gold chart
2nd chart:the predicted move in the red box
3rd chart: the new weekly Gold chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,471
  • Sep 21, 2010 8:11am Sep 21, 2010 8:11am
GOLD

Will you wait for the trendline break ?

I do see "some" topping price action but this is a monster chart.
  • #4,472
  • Sep 21, 2010 12:23pm Sep 21, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
Gold: dont miss this

1st chart: my old Gold chart
2nd chart:the predicted move in the red box
3rd chart: the new weekly Gold chart
Ahh yes .. Gold is definately prime ... waiting for a reversal signal with u
  • #4,473
  • Sep 21, 2010 11:03pm Sep 21, 2010 11:03pm
Hello chaps
So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. Rather vague then!
Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too. Cheers.
  • #4,474
  • Sep 22, 2010 12:36pm Sep 22, 2010 12:36pm
Hey,What do you guys think about Silver. Were approaching a new high. Is there likley to be a bounce off resistance ?
  • #4,475
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:34pm Sep 22, 2010 7:34pm
E/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,476
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:44pm Sep 22, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting Standard Oil
GOLD

Will you wait for the trendline break ?

I do see "some" topping price action but this is a monster chart.
Trading trend line break in a wedge is what is written in textbooks ;however, I dont trade like that -no argument whether it's right or wrong- I sell the test of the upper trend line of a rising wedge (ending diagonal with classic div like this)the reason is I can get the chance to move my SL to B/E when PA gets R on UTL touch, if it happens to break through the UTL ,considering multiple div, it usually comes back to re-test the breakout point giving us the chance to exit the trade.
  • #4,477
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:54pm Sep 22, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
Aussie: Still in Uptrend as far as S at .9330 holds

Swissy: Still in Downtrend as far as R at 1.0187 holds

Swissy
+240 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,478
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:02pm Sep 22, 2010 8:02pm
Aussie,
If it has not topped yet it might do at .9650 which was a solid R back in 08
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,479
  • Sep 23, 2010 10:42am Sep 23, 2010 10:42am
Quoting shahab8b
Trading trend line break in a wedge is what is written in textbooks ;however, I dont trade like that -no argument whether it's right or wrong- I sell the test of the upper trend line of a rising wedge (ending diagonal with classic div like this)the reason is I can get the chance to move my SL to B/E when PA gets R on UTL touch, if it happens to break through the UTL ,considering multiple div, it usually comes back to re-test the breakout point giving us the chance to exit the trade.
Thank You for the explanation and I sent you a few pm's but not sure if you received them because they don't show in my outbox.

???
  • #4,480
  • Edited 12:07pm Sep 23, 2010 11:19am | Edited 12:07pm
Swissy: our latest trade on U/Chf was a buy limit at .9810 based on LTL and Div.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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