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AUD/USD

  • #23,461
  • Sep 22, 2010 3:47pm Sep 22, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting drandycollings
Could I just ask a question to you guys more experienced/knowledgable than me. I have read that AUD is a commodity currency and normally falls on risk aversion, and have seen that in the charts last time round. USD is weak at present, once that starts to strengthen usually would expect a cross currency with it to fall ie a drop in AUDUSD. However if USD strengthens, is risk aversion not then off the table and AUD will rise even more than it is now??
USD is not strengthening and the Fed is not helping either throwing a lot of cash to the market. Even as a "safe haven" currency, USD is not as strong as it should 'cause the macro economics is dampening it's strength and some investors are looking for other safe havens (i.e. yen)

AUD strength comes from demand of raw materials from China basically, at least for now.

I'm expecting AUD rise in almost all scenarios now. Good economy, more demand, more exports. Bad economy more cash to the market devaluating USD, so it is almost a win win with this pair with the current conditions.

My two cents.
  • #23,462
  • Sep 22, 2010 4:44pm Sep 22, 2010 4:44pm
Finally some hope for shorters. I want to see a spike above 95 before I take any short positions.


Good luck

PS: I could be wrong

EDIT:
Meant 96
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  • #23,463
  • Sep 22, 2010 4:58pm Sep 22, 2010 4:58pm
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was going to sell aud but kiwi had a better price structure




sold




Red
  • #23,464
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:13pm Sep 22, 2010 6:13pm
Stopped out at BE on my short from last week @ just over .94, trying to short this thing again, I figure if I can keep picking good spots for fading this bad bull then at some point one of these fade trades could end up being something pretty nice, (I'm counting BE trades as winners while fading this pair).

Short from ~9550, will be interesting to see if it can break through .9525 and get some follow through. Lower than expected Kiwi GDP almost helped this thing break south, rejected pretty hard from 9525 ATM.

SP500 ought to hold the key for this pair tomorrow, a break below 1130 could spell a pull back from the current rally in US equities as well as cool off this AUD/USD rally.

Just my 2 pips
This is what awesome feels like
  • #23,465
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:20pm Sep 22, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



was going to sell aud but kiwi had a better price structure




sold




Red

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closed @ tg


its mine .......... done


Red
  • #23,466
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:41pm Sep 22, 2010 6:41pm
Dealers handbook:

Rule no. 181


When picking tops you sometimes get a slap in the face. (Especially if she doesnt know you.)

Stick with the trend is your friend- trend always allows you past second base ;-)
  • #23,467
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:46pm Sep 22, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting lasty
Dealers handbook:

Rule no. 181


When picking tops you sometimes get a slap in the face. (Especially if she doesnt know you.)

Stick with the trend is your friend- trend always allows you past second base ;-)


the trend is your friend until it ends
  • #23,468
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:51pm Sep 22, 2010 6:51pm
awaiting long kiwi
  • #23,469
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:07pm Sep 22, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting redsword11
the trend is your friend until it ends
Of course its important not to push your friendship too far ;-)

Some uncompromising positions can result in severe penalties and normally ends with a loss of cash :-0
  • #23,470
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:09pm Sep 22, 2010 7:09pm
why is Aud so damed strong? after almost 2 days it still hover ard 0.9560 ish..everytime it goes down it comes back again!!!:mad
  • #23,471
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:19pm Sep 22, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting fxking
why is Aud so damed strong? after almost 2 days it still hover ard 0.9560 ish..everytime it goes down it comes back again!!!:mad
You asked why the Aud is so damn strong?
Because you and me are shorting along with many others trying to play the downside break on an uptrend.
Its pretty hard to go long isnt it? Thats what everyone else is saying too..
  • #23,472
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:25pm Sep 22, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


closed @ tg


its mine .......... done


Red

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damn it - went for a smoke
  • #23,473
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:27pm Sep 22, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



damn it - went for a smoke
Nothing wrong with that position ;-)

Ok lets stick a range for today on this puppy and see how close we can get.. 30-80 ?
  • #23,474
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:45pm Sep 22, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting lasty
Nothing wrong with that position ;-)

Ok lets stick a range for today on this puppy and see how close we can get.. 30-80 ?

BOUGHT IT


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  • #23,475
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:46pm Sep 22, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting fxking
why is Aud so damed strong? after almost 2 days it still hover ard 0.9560 ish..everytime it goes down it comes back again!!!:mad

Because the USD is so weak!

  • #23,476
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:52pm Sep 22, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting Peter-FX
Because the USD is so weak!


does any of this really matter? when you have levels and price structure to trade who cares?


trade the levels and throw all else in the nearest bin
  • #23,477
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:54pm Sep 22, 2010 7:54pm
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for example - nearly @ tg
  • #23,478
  • Edited 9:31pm Sep 22, 2010 8:44pm | Edited 9:31pm
.98 looks to be a very lucrative sell

EDIT:
Reasoning...
Watch out for the RBA rates news next week.
I predict a rate rise, meaning the AUD will weaken.
About time because of Aussies high inflation - RBA always trys to keep the inflation in check
  • #23,479
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:46pm Sep 22, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting redsword11
BOUGHT IT


Attachment

bailled @ entry


going to buy loony
  • #23,480
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:02pm Sep 22, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting fxking
why is Aud so damed strong? after almost 2 days it still hover ard 0.9560 ish..everytime it goes down it comes back again!!!:mad
Quite simple....

69% Short , 31% Long
206 Short 99 Long

Short Avg. Price = .9237
Long Avg. Price = .9504


There are simply more stop-losses layered into the upper levels. I.e. it is more profitable for (fill in blank) to drive this pair higher. Forget Fundamentals, its just the way of the market.

Who knows, maybe the RBA will step in and save the day for you guys - However I doubt this will happen as the Aussies seem very fond of a high AUD for whatever reason; that and the RBA is not well as equipped to deal with intervention as the BOJ is.

READ MY SIG...


********** To add, all pairs should be viewed as elastic in nature, only a matter of time before the rubber band snaps; I only trade when that happens**********
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