meine augen sind die sterne
james16 Chart Thread
- #75,301
- Sep 22, 2010 6:32am Sep 22, 2010 6:32am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
Hi everyone,
Would appreciate any feedback on my thought process on this (demo) trade, GBP/AUD daily. I didn't see anyone else posting on this the last few pages, is this a pass for most people?
- DBHLC
- Starting a down trend(?)
- Nice size bar
- There is a bit of space to the left but prior to this space is a heap of consolidation, should this affect our thinking or is there sufficient space?
- Price is around all time lows, how does this affect our thinking?
Bar closed right on the 6400 so I put my entry at 6380 to ensure...
Personally I would have trouble justifying trading into that consolidation box you mentioned. The fact that the box is there indicates that there was a tough fight between the bears and the bulls last time we were down at this level. And it's very likely there will be a reaction the second time around.
Price is around all time lows, how does this affect our thinking?
A tricky trade for sure but not an awful one, The bar-size is good and you have the trend on your side
Just my thoughts
Edit. I would prefer to see a breakdown, and retest of the box with PA before going short
Jonny
- #75,304
- Sep 22, 2010 7:02am Sep 22, 2010 7:02am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Thank you to James Mike Jarroo Ghous all Seniors and everyone who posts, James 16 and this thread are just incredible.
Hi Mike I took this trade my first post, a breakout trade,EUR CAD,
Daily price broke above 1.3500 BRN and the channel which started mid July,
I went to lower TF, H4 for retrace pa bar,
entry 1.3572 above high of IPB + buffer and spread.
SL at 1.3490 moved to brake even at 1.3630 ,and took half profit ,closed at 1.3650.
If there are any critical points so I can improve myself I would really appreciate it
Thanks D
Welcome and thanks for sharing. I don't trade IPBs, but essentially you bought a breakout of a new high after a pullback, nothing wrong with that at all. My preferred entry by looking at the chart would be the 1hr BUOB that engulfs the range of bars sitting on the top of the channel.
Thanks for posting and hope to see more
Mike
- #75,309
- Sep 22, 2010 8:17am Sep 22, 2010 8:17am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
Thanks ppfx . .I wouldn't be where I am today, if it weren't for those very same people.
Wow . . .you catch on fast, brother. . . .nice charts.
Here is some additional confluences on the GU . .Rac-man style.
Yes you're right. I didnt see the fib confluence. To tell you the truth i didnt imagine it would hit my TP at 1.5700 . I was confident about the TP1, then i saw that because of the FOMC statement the pair was going up with a lot of momentum and i thought the best i can look out for is the TP2 @1.5620 . I closed the majority of the position at 1.5600 and since it was a free trade i went to bed without worring and i just let it go. And when i woke up i found a nice surprise-my TP at 1.5700 was hit
Nice one ppfx.
I am seeing how SL is drawing these mini TL or as he calls them S&R.
Too bad I was in bed when this all went down.
Maybe, I am thick or something but, at long last I am seeing how what we...
- #75,312
- Sep 22, 2010 8:47am Sep 22, 2010 8:47am
I also love the concept of applying Fib numbers in trading and investment, because they apply to so many things in the natural world. Whichever way my trading method/plan evolves, I'm sure those golden ratios will integral.
For me it's a worry as we can never be sure what kind orderflow exist in areas where price has never been. Maybe there are huge buy or sell orders sitting right around 1.6150. As we cannot know it makes trading into fresh new ground a bit to much of a gamble in my opinion. (and its also very difficult to define a target)
Everytime you hit a new low, you are going to get people fading that low. Its pretty standard. But the fact that you are making a new low means that there is a ton of downward pressure (or a lack of upside pressure), so it's usually a pretty good area to watch for setups.
breakout/retrace/retest lows is usually pretty reliable, in my experience.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #75,314
- Sep 22, 2010 9:04am Sep 22, 2010 9:04am
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: I keep my eyes open | 1,108 Posts
That would be nice . . just a "hello" and a chart or two .. lol
Success can be very quiet .. but it can also be loud and fun ..lol
Hi Jarroo, Raczek and the rest of the gang. It's great to see the same old crowd here.
Gotta run now...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
There could be huge orders anywhere and everywhere
But would it be correct to say there would be a large buildup of orders levels where price has not been for some time? For example, if a market made a new low in 2005, and then started to approach that low again in 2010. All the orders (the ones that are still in place) under that low in the last 5 years would be triggered if the new low is made, and this would lead to some extreme (perhaps unpredictable) price movements? Trying to educate myself
- #75,317
- Edited 9:57am Sep 22, 2010 9:46am | Edited 9:57am
True
Trying to educate myself
You'll find stops clustered under pretty much every significant low, just cause its a sensible place to put them - it's a pretty definitive indication that you were wrong and your long position isnt working out the way you planned. Or if things are going your way, you shift your stops up the the next significant dip. But those are going to be sell orders - it would be pretty terrible trade management to hold a losing short for 5 years, hoping it will come back to zero
You might sometimes find it is a level of fundamental significance, so you could see some real orders come in once price gets there. The kind of stuff that changes trends (or at very least starts the dumb money -> smart money consolidation). In fx, maybe not as much. But definitely in equities, that's ValueTown (population: Buffett, and hopefully me).
As I said, fading new lows is a pretty common move, so if price makes a new low, you can usually expect some kind of retracement. And, obviously, its going to see some profit taking But not a trend changing one (unless a CB or the aforementioned macro-money gets involved). Obviously, that is going to add some additional risk to a straight breakout (which is why mike-style break/retrace/boom trades are almost always better). Usually, though, you shouldnt see an extreme reaction - any buying spike is usually going straight into a bunch of people looking to get short, and they are going to be more than happy to absorb the bids.
The fact that you are making new lows means that there is more selling than buying. So, generally speaking, being on the selling team is good; being on the buying team is like playing for Derby/St Louis/Melbourne (delete as appropriate).
I guess what I am saying, in typical roundabout fashion, is that you shouldnt be scared of space - there might be a few aliens floating around here and there, but most of it is empty
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
How many orders would you leave sitting there for five years? I daresay my positions would have been converted to booze, cars or women by then
You'll find stops clustered under pretty much every significant low, just cause its a sensible place to put them - it's a pretty definitive indication that you were wrong and your long position isnt working out the way you planned. Or if things are going your way, you shift your stops up the the next significant dip. But those are going to be sell orders - it would be pretty terrible trade management...
Appreciate your time sir
