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fake breakouts against a strong trend

  • #81
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:21pm Sep 20, 2010 6:21pm
another good trade, I do apologize not to draw all lines:
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  • #82
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:23pm Sep 20, 2010 6:23pm
stop loss here
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  • #83
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:26pm Sep 20, 2010 6:26pm
a very good trade...(and abroker error in the black circle )

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  • #84
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:28pm Sep 20, 2010 6:28pm
the week is over...I'm sure the balance is positive...I should check it.
My trouble is the complete backtest is impossible to do but I think the fake breakout idea is good
  • #85
  • Sep 21, 2010 11:16am Sep 21, 2010 11:16am
Quoting RHoward
Yes I will share it. I am typing it in a pdf and will post it soon to share with all.
I see your post just now
Thank you
  • #86
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:53pm Sep 21, 2010 2:53pm
Let's have a look at today's setups on eurusd (don't calculate profit and loss, perhaps my trade management must be modified).
Except for pic nr.4 everytrade would have been winning with a nice r/r
I forgot some ellypse but I hope all is clear as well
Nr.3 is a weird and fast movement that would very difficult to take
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  • #87
  • Sep 27, 2010 6:25am Sep 27, 2010 6:25am
Quoting ale73a
Hi Archer, the MAs are simple

what parameters ? eg SMA30, SMA50, SMA100 or what ?
  • #88
  • Sep 28, 2010 1:34am Sep 28, 2010 1:34am
Quoting TheArcher
what parameters ? eg SMA30, SMA50, SMA100 or what ?
yes, they seem to be a good filter against weakness.
if i have time I would like to fix this system, but I can't now...
not a big problem 'cause I couldn't use it since I work during gmt
bye
  • #89
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:41am Sep 28, 2010 5:41am
Quoting UnnamedPlayr
Many traders are looking at charts with support/resistance levels,candles, breakouts and other TA.

If it gets broken and comes back they think that were fake breakouts.

But liquidity isn't static and it's moving much different than most people think.

I could not agree with you more. My system is based on these "false breakouts"
  • #90
  • Sep 28, 2010 8:07am Sep 28, 2010 8:07am
maybe my thread's title sounds not to be what i mean...
i trade in the direction of the strong uptrend when the price breaks the previous swing low and then goes up again.
i hope the breakout is weak and the trend keep moving up
  • #91
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:23am Sep 29, 2010 11:23am
A few minutes to show the backtest of the system on eurusd today...
first four trades: 3+ 1-
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  • #92
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:27am Sep 29, 2010 11:27am
Last 2 operations with a positive result as well...
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  • #93
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:31am Sep 29, 2010 11:31am
At this moment there is a potential setup: if price break the previous low and then goes up again we could buy
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  • #94
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:40am Sep 29, 2010 11:40am
the breakdown appened but so far the price hasn't moved over the orizontal black libe again...so, nothing to do
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  • #95
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:16am Oct 19, 2010 9:16am
This thread is not dead, notice how the method worked also today
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  • #96
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:19am Oct 19, 2010 9:19am
in aususd too:
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  • #97
  • Oct 19, 2010 9:28am Oct 19, 2010 9:28am
gbpusd since this morning 4 win - 1 lose
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  • #98
  • Oct 19, 2010 10:05am Oct 19, 2010 10:05am
I would like to improve this system, keeping using the strong principles:
-strong trend
-countertrend fast breakout and following fading where jump in trade
-tight stop loss

the elements that don't convince me are:
-3 ma's way to determine the strong of the trend
-fractals to determine point of breakout
-trade management when are in gain
-only 1 tick over the recent high (under the recent low) stop loss
  • #99
  • Oct 19, 2010 3:43pm Oct 19, 2010 3:43pm
right now on eurusd a winning trade:
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  • #100
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:31pm Oct 19, 2010 11:31pm
ale73a, I notice you're basically posting with yourself.

What do you look for as a breakout? and I didn't check but you said "fake" breakout.

i noticed your recent charts are 5 minute. You must realize that breakout patterns apply for all time frames. A 5 minute bullish breakout cannot occur in an hourly bearish phase or bear breakout, even if it sets up for one.

I just posted my thoughts on what's going on with the EUR/USD over in the thread:

Quote
Other things you guys might not be considering:
December 2009 the decline started.
The weekly chart shows the decline as a bearish breakout confirming with a drop below the 20MA in early December.
Weekly MACD finally bottomed out and pulled off the bollinger band.
Weekly chart battled the 20MA, broke it, then dropped down and held it.
Bullish breakout confirmed by the move to above the weekly 20MA.
Weekly CCI(10) and Stoch(5,3,3) showed this was the perfect time for a pullback.
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/1351/euweekly.gif

Monthly...

The EU chart is set for an hour-breakout right now, although the daily and weekly are calling for at least another 100-200 point drop from here.
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