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AUD/USD

  • #23,281
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:46pm Sep 20, 2010 4:46pm
Hello guys i will post chart for you...

For me AUDUSD is on sell side,i see good strong TL on this level and i expext future down..Just my view >


Cheers

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #23,282
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:50pm Sep 20, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting need-help
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1234

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=794
Thank you!
  • #23,283
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:51pm Sep 20, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello guys i will post chart for you...

For me AUDUSD is on sell side,i see good strong TL on this level and i expext future down..Just my view >


Cheers

Petar
Nice chart. Good post!

Are you in a short? What is your TP.
Which Indicators do you use for your analysis?

Me myself are in a short. TP: 0.9410.
Reasons I have mentioned in earlier posts.
  • #23,284
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:04pm Sep 20, 2010 5:04pm
update:
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  • #23,285
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:06pm Sep 20, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting Phonetic
update:
Nice development
  • #23,286
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:15pm Sep 20, 2010 5:15pm
The trend is my friend and so is yours. Why trade against it? Is there something in the world that has changed in the past 48 hours?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,287
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:17pm Sep 20, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting Sunsi
Nice chart. Good post!

Are you in a short? What is your TP.
Which Indicators do you use for your analysis?

Me myself are in a short. TP: 0.9410.
Reasons I have mentioned in earlier posts.
Hi Sunsi i dont want to be a signal service just want to help with direction,you will put your SL and TP according your strategy-personality.I use pure price action becouse you dont need anything,just price action practice days,months,years..

Hope you will take good pips ...

Cheers

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #23,288
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:18pm Sep 20, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting kandarv
The trend is my friend and so is yours. Why trade against it? Is there something in the world that has changed in the past 48 hours?
Yes!
Alot of indicators are pointing south. THey did not do that 48hours ago.
I have mentioned them in earlier posts.
Overall trend still might be bullish, but there are room for a move to the bear side. Thats my opinion.
  • #23,289
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:21pm Sep 20, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hi Sunsi i dont want to be a signal service just want to help with direction,you will put your SL and TP according your strategy-personality.I use pure price action becouse you dont need anything,just price action practice days,months,years..

Hope you will take good pips ...

Cheers

Petar
Thanks for your post!

PA is my main indicator aswell Gl with trading.
  • #23,290
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:21pm Sep 20, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Sunsi
Yes!
Alot of indicators are pointing south. THey did not do that 48hours ago.
I have mentioned them in earlier posts.
Overall trend still might be bullish, but there are room for a move to the bear side. Thats my opinion.
Just remember this is a commodity currency that could be in overbought/oversold territory for long time. It's driven also by risk aversion/appetite flows and as a carry trade too. The balance with China and their production/consumption.

Just my two cents. Good luck.
  • #23,291
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:23pm Sep 20, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting kandarv
Just remember this is a commodity currency that could be in overbought/oversold territory for long time. It's driven also by risk aversion/appetite flows and as a carry trade too. The balance with China and their production/consumption.

Just my two cents. Good luck.
Good point!
I dont tend to be in this short for a long time. But at the moment I like my order.
Gl to you to!
  • #23,292
  • Edited 5:53pm Sep 20, 2010 5:25pm | Edited 5:53pm
Quoting kandarv
The trend is my friend and so is yours. Why trade against it? Is there something in the world that has changed in the past 48 hours?
I totaly cant agree with you,i earned many pips in past and didnt check thing you call trend i will tell you why ?

Simple,all you can see now is past just is current situation real market and i always said to new traders look current price action.I trade simple if is current price action siting on strong previuse price action that is for me signal to entry and with very tight SL you can take good pips...Anyway everyone has diferent style i wish good luck to all ...

Cheers

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #23,293
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:37pm Sep 20, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
I totaly can agree with you,i earned many pips in past and didnt check thing you call trend i will tell you why ?

Simple,all you can see now is past just is current situation real market and i always said to new traders look current price action.I trade simple if is current price action siting on strong previuse price action that is for me signal to entry and with very tight SL you can take good pips...Anyway everyone has diferent style i wish good luck to all ...

Cheers

Petar
I'm a P.A. trader my self too, few or almost no indicators on my charts, only price levels on which I noted some action (S&R), but for the mean time I'm out, waiting for clear signals and most important, waiting for the "Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes" due in three hours, that could be a trend changer or not depending on tomorrow's FOMC minutes.

Hawkish tone on RBA and more QE on FOMC and we could see 0.96 or more by the end of the week, hopefully, with me on it
  • #23,294
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting kandarv
I'm a P.A. trader my self too, few or almost no indicators on my charts, only price levels on which I noted some action (S&R), but for the mean time I'm out, waiting for clear signals and most important, waiting for the "Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes" due in three hours, that could be a trend changer or not depending on tomorrow's FOMC minutes.

Hawkish tone on RBA and more QE on FOMC and we could see 0.96 or more by the end of the week, hopefully, with me on it
Do you think "Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes" can make a big impact on this pair?
And aslo, where do you see it? Bloomberg?
How do you analyse it?
  • #23,295
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:52pm Sep 20, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting kandarv
Has the potential to go 0.9555 so don't expect to go down 'cause it has gone up so much. After London closed the momentum is lost, but I don't think it will go to 0.9300 just yet.

RBA is going to start to worry...
Why would the RBA worry? I don't think so.
  • #23,296
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:52pm Sep 20, 2010 5:52pm
Thats what I love to see everyone on a bull run except massive supply entered the market around the .94 70-90 level. That was meant to be the break out level at .9480. So have we got Techs caught long at the highs?
We will need fresh new buyers entering the market as most of the shorts would have been stopped above .9475
Interest rate rise has been factored in.
The risk for me seems the downside in this session to clear out some weak longs.
  • #23,297
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:55pm Sep 20, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting pqt
Technically, AU is overbought but still has room to go in its UT channel to target 96xx, especially the big boys will try to take out rumoured barriers @95
Fundamentally, I don't think we'll have a significant pullback b4 the next RBA rate decision (in a couple of weeks). And of course, keep an eye on the "risk on, risk off" BS !
How do you mean, technically, it is over bought? What indicator(s) do you use or what is your procedure for determining it is overbought?
  • #23,298
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:26pm Sep 20, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting Sunsi
Do you think "Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes" can make a big impact on this pair?
And aslo, where do you see it? Bloomberg?
How do you analyse it?
You can get the minutes in many places, I don't read the whole thing but what I do is watch whats the market reaction to it and it's tone, hawkish/dovish.

I just made this chart trying to illustrate what I think about the trading business. It is not necessary accurate but it gives the general idea.

There's three players, the "Real" Economy, the big players, and us. There's many more, like normal commercial trading, export & imports, et.al. But I just to point these three.

The real economy goes by it's own cycle, up & down. The big players try to anticipate market's next move to profit and we are trying to reinvent the wheel, trying to anticipate everything, and most of the time, lagging the real market conditions.

When we are in alignment with the real market, we make profit and we think we own it, that's happens from time to time, until we try to anticipate it again.

Just my view.
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  • #23,299
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:32pm Sep 20, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Why would the RBA worry? I don't think so.
It's the same case as with BoJ and SNB. Overvalued currency is not healthy for their mainly export economy. Bloomberg is already stating the aussie is 27% overvalued in PPP. Signals here, signals there...
  • #23,300
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:52pm Sep 20, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting kandarv
It's the same case as with BoJ and SNB. Overvalued currency is not healthy for their mainly export economy. Bloomberg is already stating the aussie is 27% overvalued in PPP. Signals here, signals there...
RBA wont intervene to defend the currency level.Its never been their mandate.They may however sell to position themselves.
They bought when the currency was under pressure from a disorderly market down in the low 60's, so 30 odd big figs later they may look at it to take profit and boost reserves.
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