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  • #14,041
  • Edited 7:59pm Sep 19, 2010 7:45pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting strat
Today's bar has already surpassed the wick of your SS (on the AUD.US)
But the bar hasn't closed yet and will not until NY closes this afternoon!
My apologies for posting before the daliy close and for not pointing out that we needed to wait for the close.

I am re-posting weekly and daily charts showing a SS(ish) bar on the weekly and a SS on the daily. The SS on the daily that formed at fridays' close, looks a lot better than the SS on the 14th which was referred to in the original post by Ruebens PP #14006
Better in the sense that it has a much longer wick and the close is at what I would identify as an important SR level(?)
Given the strong recent uptrend, would anyone short a break of the SS ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,042
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:14pm Sep 19, 2010 8:14pm
1. We have all been there.
2. We are now here!

'nuf said?

For those needing more, I suspect they are captivated by their brokers publishing of monthly "contest" results?

Sure, the winner might make 500%, 1000% sometimes more.
Sure, this happens every month.

Now find a broker who publishes more than just the top 5 (or maybe 10 results).
I won't name the broker, but I do know of one that publishes the top 100 and gives the number of "contestants (suckers!)" each month.Not too many of the "top 100" manage more than break-even. Out of 900+ or so accounts that start each month, only 500 or so are still active at months end - that is 400 or so BLOWN accounts EVERY MONTH (that all had a MINIMUM of $500 in them to start with in order to enter the contest). So it is pretty easy for the broker to pay out the top 5 or so traders and encourage YOU to try and emulate the results of the top-trader - and of course you will do that by using the brokers training material and short time frames!!

Go for it.

I'm staying here!

(Now, can we get back to PASR?)
  • #14,043
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:31pm Sep 19, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting trogger
My apologies for posting before the daliy close and for not pointing out that we needed to wait for the close.

I am re-posting weekly and daily charts showing a SS(ish) bar on the weekly and a SS on the daily. The SS on the daily that formed at fridays' close, looks a lot better than the SS on the 14th which was referred to in the original post by Ruebens PP #14006
Better in the sense that it has a much longer wick and the close is at what I would identify as an important SR level(?)
Given the strong recent uptrend, would anyone short a break...
Only If once is looking for 100-200 pips trade. There is a strong support @ 9200 and our lovely 20 on Worker. If it breaks, it will find support at this level and try to test the wick again. Only then with bearish PA, I will take the risk to go short.
  • #14,044
  • Edited 10:02pm Sep 19, 2010 9:31pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting trogger
Have taken profits on first two positions and have one remaining with SL now at 60.30 or just under the low of the 14 Sept bar (arrowed).
Intention is to follow PA on this position, looking for signal from the daily to close (if not taken out at 60.30).Attachment
Now this is where I ALWAYS get into trouble....
To move, or not to move?

One remaining position with my plan to have PA on the daily dictate the close.
Great plan, but it presupposes that I can actually recognize - and correctly interpret - PA on the daily!!

Daily first
Attached Image


Following big bull bar of 15 Sept, we have IB/hanging man on the 16th (signal to tighten?). Then we have SS on the 17th (which failed to break the high of 15 Sept). Have sunday bar 18th as another IB and today upside break of sunday's bar, though we have a long time before the daily close.
Maybe academic as to exactly where the stop should now go as there is not too much in difference between the bottom of these bars but I want to know if I understand what I am doing?

I am going for under the hanging man (16th) rather than under the SS (17th) but I don't have a strong conviction that I am right. I see the SS on the 17th as a "Bond" in that I dont see it at a clearly defined SR level on the weekly.
Having said that, I do note that the low of the SS is at BRN 62 (62.05 on my chart) and that all of September's price is contained within the August monthly BEEB, so maybe a break of the SS may signal a re-test of lows?
Attached Image


The weekly looks (immediatelty) bullish.

What am I missing? Any comments please?
  • #14,045
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:36pm Sep 19, 2010 9:36pm
editted post. read the charts wrongly.

the monthly looks bullish but is in fact an IB as of yet. a lot of sideways movement for this pair looking at big boss and boss charts

ranging between 60 to 65 then 70

the conflict of daily pins reflect indecision between buyers and sellers.
pick another pair to trade.
this pair is in a mess.
but of course tradeable within a range

pls feel free to correct me if i'm wrong, seniors.
  • #14,046
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:43pm Sep 19, 2010 9:43pm
Hi Trogger,

It appears to me that the trend is up on the big boss and boss. Should we not be looking for an opprotunity to long this pair? I think I for one should stay away from trading against the trend.

I am watching to see what happens at the .9365ish level. This may become new support. If so then there may be an opportunity to go long.

Having said all that I do realize that price is approaching the highest level this pair has ever closed at on the monthly charts going back to 1988 the earliest data my broker displays. It put in a close in June 2008 of .95810 and spiked up to .98500 before closing back at .94130 in July.

Just an observation from a relative newcomer to this thread.

Thanks again Strat for all you share with everyone.

Quoting trogger
My apologies for posting before the daliy close and for not pointing out that we needed to wait for the close.

I am re-posting weekly and daily charts showing a SS(ish) bar on the weekly and a SS on the daily. The SS on the daily that formed at fridays' close, looks a lot better than the SS on the 14th which was referred to in the original post by Ruebens PP #14006
Better in the sense that it has a much longer wick and the close is at what I would identify as an important SR level(?)
Given the strong recent uptrend, would anyone short a break...
  • #14,047
  • Edited 1:51am Sep 20, 2010 12:06am | Edited 1:51am
Hi
I have attached the worker and boss us cad. Both show PA at S, for a possible trip north.(small hammer on Boss and a BUOB on Worker)
However, i observe 2 things that make me think twice.
1 You are trading straight into 20, 50 and Boss 20 which are all desending.
Would you trade into this or place order above them all, or by pass?
If placed above R&R is only 1:1 and questionable? Trading into the MA's would be better in terms of R&R but is it stress free?
2 Price maybe on way to 101.15 Support which appears to be the other side of the current range? and 102.90 maybe a wobble.

The target would be 106.17 ish R

I would appreciate any experienced observations of this please so i/we can learn. Thanks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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PASR student.
  • #14,048
  • Sep 20, 2010 1:50am Sep 20, 2010 1:50am
Quoting kiwipom
Hi
I have attached the worker and boss us cad. Both show PA at S, for a possible trip north.(small hammer on Boss and a BUOB on Worker)
However, i observe 2 things that make me think twice.
1 You are trading straight into 20, 50 and Boss 20 which are all desending.
Would you trade into this or place order above them all, or by pass?
If placed above R&R is only 1:1 and questionable? Trading into the MA's would be better in terms of R&R but is it stress free?
2 Price maybe on way to 101.15 Support which appears to be the other side of the current...
Hello Kiwipom
Thanks for posting PASR!
This is a pair I am watching too and have pretty much the same questions as you, but will make a couple of comments.

I am definitely NOT advocating "Bottom Picking" - but I would say that any long term trend change is ALWAYS going to involve trading against the 20 and 50 MA's at the start of the trend change. My (limited) understanding is that we as beginners with this strategy shouldn't be taking the set-up as we would be against the immediate trend?

Having said that, this pair is very clearly rangebound from May till present with price at/near the bottom of that range.

Attached Image


For me then, this is more a question of risk to reward than probability of success. Certainly there must be a set-up to take it but I would be looking for a minimal stop loss as I don't think there is anything to suggest a huge upside in this pair.
Would you trade into this or place order above them all, or by pass?
So, I think the answer to this Q must be to pass.
As you can see from the charts, I didn't pass. I am long (a very small position) that I took on 17Sept following the bars 14,15 16th

Attached Image

14th - not a perfect hammer, but hammer-like with long lower wick
15th - inverted hammer - will we see upside confirmation, or continuation of downtrend -50/50 call at this stage(?)
16th BUEB but hardly convincing - no upside break of previous day's bar
17th re-test of lows with limit buy and hard stop.
Yes, taken because I have a long bias from these levels
Reason for bias: Monthly
Attached Image

Hammer(ish) bar for April, followed by good upside move in May
Price has been trapped within the May candle since. Retest of lows in June, July and August have failed.

Hence I took a small long which I believe to be based on PA at SR.

Trading into the MA's would be better in terms of R&R but is it stress free?
Personally, I don't find any trade with real money "stress-free" but the smaller the risk the lower the stress for me, hence my requirement for high R:R above all else with this pair at this time.

Price maybe on way to 101.15 Support which appears to be the other side of the current..

Yes, it could be! But it could be heading to April's low at 99.28 and if that fails to.... and if that fails to ??.?? Hence a hardstop.

Hopefully Strat will answer you - maybe with something simple like: "look for a better pair to trade"
  • #14,049
  • Edited 5:30am Sep 20, 2010 5:28am | Edited 5:30am
Hi,

hope you all enjoyed the weekend.

I have found this setup over the weekend and would like to know if my analisis correco according to PARS:

Boss:

Lower highs (30th may + 01. august) and break of support at 1.5850 (29.august candle). Last weeks candle formed an BUOB with close well below the broken support, which converts support in resistance now. AM20 and 50 both looking south.

Worker:

That friday candle rejecting the broken support line is a valid short trade setup with a first target of 1.5375 and a SL at 1.60?

(Did not take the trade, as I am not yet there).

Thanks in advance for your comments.

Daniel
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  • #14,050
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:35am Sep 20, 2010 9:35am
Quoting elmasmas
Hi,

hope you all enjoyed the weekend.

I have found this setup over the weekend and would like to know if my analisis correco according to PARS:

Boss:

Lower highs (30th may + 01. august) and break of support at 1.5850 (29.august candle). Last weeks candle formed an BUOB with close well below the broken support, which converts support in resistance now. AM20 and 50 both looking south.

Worker:

That friday candle rejecting the broken support line is a valid short trade setup with a first target of 1.5375 and a SL at 1.60?

(Did not take the trade,...
A couple of points. Please post charts with a light/white background as some people like to print charts and a black background uses a lot of ink.

Now, as to the charts. On mine, the monthly S of 1.5600 has been repeatedly respected by the body of the candles on the B. Boss and the Weekly. This is very strong Support. On the Worker, yes Price has broken down through this but has been pulled back to 1.5860. In other words, I would say that the Break down is not secure and 1.5600 is still there as a meaningful S line.

If you shorted the Worker at this point you would be going straight into that B. Boss/Boss S. Not a good R:R - at least for me. I think there are better charts to consider for trading.

Remember Strat's dictum - 'If in doubt stay out'. I've had to learn (and am still learning!!) to be patient and reject any chart for trading that has a query against it.
  • #14,051
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:49am Sep 20, 2010 9:49am
Quoting trogger
My apologies for posting before the daliy close and for not pointing out that we needed to wait for the close.

I am re-posting weekly and daily charts showing a SS(ish) bar on the weekly and a SS on the daily. The SS on the daily...
Given the strong recent uptrend, would anyone short a break of the SS ?

Reverse PASR in a strong trend is there for profit taking NOT trading against the trend
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,052
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:03am Sep 20, 2010 10:03am
Quoting elmasmas
Hi,

hope you all enjoyed the weekend.

I have found this setup over the weekend and would like to know if my analisis correco according to PARS:
Hi Daniel,

While on BOSS indeed is a BUOB is not a convincing one because it didn't close in a strong fashion. Even more if you go on BIG BOSS the downtrend is much more visible and last candle closed as a convincing BEOB.

All in all it does look good to me. On Worker it is clearly a strong rejection of 1.6 & EMAs.

Cheers,
-soso

EDIT: Please don't forget the trade management, it should be aggressive imo because the Worker is pretty rangy lately. I would move to BE at 1.56 and TP1 just above 1.55 - major round number.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #14,053
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:21am Sep 20, 2010 10:21am
Thanks for your comments, they are all very appreciated!

I didnt take that trade, as
- I didn't manage to analyse that pair until this morning
- I also wasn't 100% sure about the setup.

But I wanted to discuss it at least for training purposes (on page 70 now, still some way to go, but not in a hurry).

Looking forward to the next possible setup.

Regards.

Daniel
  • #14,054
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:27am Sep 20, 2010 10:27am
Quoting trogger
Now this is where I ALWAYS get into trouble....
To move, or not to move?

One remaining position with my plan to have PA on the daily dictate the close.
Great plan, but it presupposes...
Now this is where I ALWAYS get into trouble....
To move, or not to move?

One remaining position with my plan to have PA on the daily dictate the close.
Great plan, but it presupposes that I can actually recognize - and correctly interpret - PA on the daily!!

Maybe academic as to exactly where the stop should now go as there is not too much in difference between the bottom of these bars but I want to know if I understand what I am doing?

Is this your 3rd position out of your 3 lot trade?

If so, you should have profit locked away on the first two positions.

What did your PLAN say? Are you following your PLAN?

NZDJPY is in a trading range – why didn’t your PLAN say to TP at the top of the range?

One of the many reasons for the PLAN is to make PASR trading stress free.

YOU are making it stressful by not having a detailed PLAN and not following your PLAN

I want to know if I understand what I am doing?

Unbelievable!

If you don’t know or UNDERSTAND what you’re doing, don’t do it!

If you were going sky diving, would you jump out of the plane and say “ I want to know if I understand what I am doing?”
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,055
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:30am Sep 20, 2010 10:30am
Quoting miracle16
editted post. read the charts wrongly.

the monthly looks bullish but is in fact an IB as of yet. a lot of sideways movement for this pair looking at big boss and boss charts

ranging between 60 to 65 then 70

the conflict of daily pins reflect indecision between buyers and sellers.
pick another pair to trade.
this pair is in a mess.
but of course tradeable within a range

pls feel free to correct me if i'm wrong, seniors.
read the charts wrongly.

Which charts?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,056
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:32am Sep 20, 2010 10:32am
Quoting kiwipom
Hi
I have attached the worker and boss us cad. Both show PA at S, for a possible trip north.(small hammer on Boss and a BUOB on Worker)
However, i observe 2 things that make me think twice.
1 You are trading straight into 20, 50 and Boss 20 which are all desending.
Would you trade into this or place order above them all, or by pass?
If placed above R&R is only 1:1 and questionable? Trading into the MA's would be better in terms of R&R but is it stress free?
2 Price maybe on way to 101.15 Support which appears to be the other side of the current...
I don't think it is at the bottom of its range yet
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,057
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:47am Sep 20, 2010 10:47am
Quoting elmasmas
Hi,

hope you all enjoyed the weekend.

I have found this setup over the weekend and would like to know if my analisis correco according to PARS:

Boss:

Lower highs (30th may + 01. august) and break of support at 1.5850 (29.august candle). Last weeks candle formed an BUOB with close well below the broken support, which converts support in resistance now. AM20 and 50 both looking south.

Worker:

That friday candle rejecting the broken support line is a valid short trade setup with a first target of 1.5375 and a SL at 1.60?

(Did not take...
I took the trade. Classic case of support turned Resistance and PA. First position closed, second position @ BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf-09-20-10.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #14,058
  • Sep 20, 2010 11:20am Sep 20, 2010 11:20am
Quoting patrick25
I took the trade. Classic case of support turned Resistance and PA. First position closed, second position @ BE.
I, however, I did not take the trade because it was against the trend (weekly BUOB: PA against immediate trend)
  • #14,059
  • Sep 20, 2010 11:27am Sep 20, 2010 11:27am
Quoting extraneo
I, however, I did not take the trade because it was against the trend (weekly BUOB: PA against immediate trend)
Right BUT the Big Boss was a BEOB on my data so,

Conflict between Boss and Big Boss = NO TRADE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,060
  • Sep 20, 2010 11:30am Sep 20, 2010 11:30am
Quoting strat
Right BUT the Big Boss was a BEOB on my data so,

Conflict between Boss and Big Boss = NO TRADE

Sure Start, I meant just that.
Thanks for the reply.
I hope to learn how to fish
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