AUD/USD

I think you may be right.

FARRRRRRRRRRRRRRK i missed it again ! Dam I cant wait to have more time to look at this !

Be careful with the aussie dollar. I read this recent report from saxo bank. It's only one opinion but it is food for thought.

Will the Aussie dollar come under enormous selling pressure, as a result of the shift in sentiment that’s currently underway?
In the past week, we’ve seen investors again seeking refuge in low-risk assets such as US Treasuries and German bunds. Oil prices are again under pressure, as fears about the global growth outlook fuels uncertainty about demand. And in foreign exchange markets, investors once again are turning towards safe havens such as the Japanese yen.
In its latest, Quarterly Outlook for the third quarter of 2010, the Danish investment bank, Saxo Bank, points out that in the three months to June 2010, the European sovereign debt crisis preoccupied foreign exchange markets. But while markets will remain concerned by eurozone problems, Saxo expects several new themes to emerge in coming months.
In the first place, it says, the commodity currencies – such as the Australian and Canadian dollars – will increasingly come under the spotlight.
Foreign exchange markets view commodity currencies as barometers of global risk appetite and global growth. According to Saxo, foreign exchange traders assume these currencies will see “the highest growth rates and interest rates during good times and appreciate the quickest on capital flows and carry trading, but will likewise see the fastest decline rates on the downside of the growth cycle as capital flows reverse due to quickly contracting interest rate spreads and as key commodity prices fall and see a contraction in key domestic export industries.”
As Saxo notes, “most of these elements were in play in the boom and subsequent 2008-09 bust in commodity currencies”. When doubts emerged about the global growth outlook in 2008, the Australian dollar plunged from a 25-year high to a five-year low against the US dollar in the space of a couple of months.
Saxo notes that the big commodity exporting countries such as Australia and Canada withstood the global financial crisis extremely well, because both had solid banking systems. They were also helped by the move by central banks around the world to quickly cut interest rates in the wake of the crisis, because this supported asset prices. In addition, Australia benefited from China’s massive stimulus program that caused a sharp rebound in industrial commodity prices. “So some countries escaped the turmoil relatively unscathed – but they won’t be so lucky this next time around as global growth begins to weaken in coming months.”
Saxo argues that Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden (which is an exporter, if not a commodity exporter) have all seen a massive surge in housing prices.
It warns that “when these bubbles pop in a weak global environment, this is likely to serve as a double whammy to these countries, particularly Australia and Canada, whose currencies are the strongest, and where private indebtedness is as bad or worse than it has ever been in the US or the UK.”
As a result, Saxo warns, “The commodity currency levels could look very different when 2011 rolls around.”
Saxo says that another big trend in foreign exchange markets will be the growing backlash against massive government deficits, which has caused government debt levels to balloon. This will result in a situation where there is “a private sector already desperately looking to deleverage (this theme is the most mature in the US, but Europe is very quickly catching up due to the crisis and Australia and Canada are, too, even if they don’t realise it yet) and now a public sector that is looking to deleverage as well out of political necessity.”
Saxo points to the US where state and local governments are slashing deficits, and the huge pressure on the debt-laden eurozone countries to cut government spending and raise taxes.
This impetus towards increasing government austerity, it says, will likely move into full swing in third quarter of 2010 “and put enormous pressure on economic growth, thus withdrawing the public sector support that enabled the recovery in the first place.”
And it will also have an impact on foreign exchange markets, in terms of “more weakness for those currencies for which current interest rate expectations and growth expectations are too high: that’s right, we’re talking about the commodity currencies again.”
The Australian dollar also faces a further threat from a potentially sharp slow-down in China. According to Saxo, “China’s move to forcefully grow itself out of the catastrophic contraction in its export-related industries was as impressive as it may have been misguided. Too much of the growth has been a matter of throwing funds at economically non-viable infrastructure projects. And the flooding of the bank system with easy credit has resulted in perhaps the world’s largest housing bubble.”
The problem is that the consequences of fostering this enormous, poor-quality, economic growth is likely to come back to haunt Beijing. Saxo says it “wouldn’t be surprised” if the cracks in the Chinese economy become more evident in the third quarter of 2010.
“If the Chinese economy drives off a cliff (or even if we simply see a sharp slowdown), this will further aggravate the most popular risk plays out there: emerging market equities and the currencies that are so dependent on related capital flows for their stability.”
Saxo warns that foreign exchange markets are about to become a whole lot more volatile, “so stay careful out there”.

as i mentioned..what ever its let it will fill the gap first..i saw possibility this monday open if not on tuesday...just be patient lil a bit

gold may pull back lil bit as well after making another new high..daily close is very interesting...right?

believe me historical n chart never lie....keep learning n find my reason behind if all of u want
fundamental just to make it happen/completed as what it should

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=230738

read this link as i am posted somewhere else before....
n i have my own reason why i am interested in AUDUSD right now?
n definetely i am using big lot size for my swng setting

p/s : remember a new gov set-up? what will be happen? time will tell ...

happy weekend all and good luck

g

Short term top sure looks to be in place, 5a bar on friday was a clear signal.....selling all rallies

I did not take a position yet due to capital being wrapped up in gu, gj, gbp/chf shorts atm....As soon as I find a good entry for this pair I will post it

I still see this as true...even moreso now. I know I am not on this thread much-so take me lightly but do investigate, see for yourself.

fine..

..why use monthly? what type of trader u r? swing or what? why not u use weekly? ..have u seen daily vs weekly vs monthly?

I may understand u if u use monthly (if i am not wrong) on the pin ~ .80 area as well as current double bottom at above monthly pivot ~ 0.89 area where we could c another to test at 0.96572 area. But we still have 2 week to finish on sept 10 moth and anything could happen. Take a look H4 n daily gold...see somethings?

p/s : PA is not going straight line, so be smart

just my poor point as i was almost +100pips already on my second entry as mentioned b4....

Good points. My indie shows downtrend on all timeframes accept 1M which I rarely see. The monthly is just more pronounced and a little less pronounced as timeframes get shorter. The 1M is not clear either way as the 1M already hit the bottom with a very slight move up from the current move.
If I am wrong...my apologies. If I am right, Ill wish I bet the farm. I have just never seen these indications this clearly before, and past comparisions give me reason to believe what I see is a big move to come. I wish I knew how to post what I see and do it w/o showing my account info. Best to you.

dun worry..we just discussing n nobody right or wrong..but i just not quite comfortable on ur monthly basis view..still too early to confirm...unless in 3rd week, then i am ok for that...so i would love to c my filling gap target before align with urs...but i more particular on my entry even my margin are effort for 500-1000pips (5000-10,000 pips in my 5 decimal point) dd to avoid mess with all my position...

anyway happy weekend and have a good rest mate...take care


g

I was just checking some sites for weekend activity and I am totally clueless.

FxStreet is showing the current price as .9448 while Oanda is showing .9358.

For the sake of my short, I hope that FxStreet is wrong.

IBFX is showing 0.9360 which is pretty close to Oanda

Hi,
I usually refer to xe.com for prices movements over the weekend. The thing is currently at 0.9443. Looks like those who left short positions over the weekend may be dead.

but hey market open is only a few hours away so let's wait

Edit:
Google shows the rate as 0.9377 and X-rates.com shows 0.9405.

It is very strange that 2 brokerage sites show one price and the 2 non-brokerage sites show a price about 100 pips higher.

Just do not know what to think.

Update. Just checked the FxStreet charts instead of the rates and it is showing the same thing as the brokerages so basically where it closed on Friday, which is great. I do consider it highly likely for this pair to continue down.

Hi,
And to make things worse, prices for EU and GU are round about the same on the websites that I have checked. Something really wrong.

I was really expecting the price to move higher into 0.955X before tanking but it didn't reach there.

Gov stevens is on tonight. Suppose price opens at the 0.93XX area, will you be leaving your position open? You don't really have to answer this but I was just curious.

Thanks

Probably go to a trailing stop. It will really depend on how things are when we open and whether there is any indication of a change in direction.

Thanks

Good luck to you

weekend mate..forget all thos correlation. sorry to say useluss to u to explore...be honest....wait tll market open then decide...

I used OANDA, Fxstreet, Xe. before..but not now...currently i only use this...almost quite align with EST broker when open market...

http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quotes/AUD_majors.html

here u go n take a look if interested..

g

You can download snagit and use that for screen shots, or just a region of your screen. And then use their editing tools to cover up any information that you don't want people to see. I use snagit all the time for annotating stock charts. Try it out and see how you like it.

Here's a DL link for a trial addition and if you like it you can either buy it, or do what I did and download it for free on demonoid or BT Junkie. LOL

http://www.techsmith.com/screen-capt...FdFO5wodkDK-JQ

Hi,
Yip it's best to wait for market open.

Thanks for the link.

The interactive chart on fxstreet only shows data until 18 Sep. That is why you saw last week close. If you look at at the small chart below the "Rates and Charts page http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/) you will see small chart show that price has jumped up to .9448 some hours ago and stay there, the same as small chart on xe.com. Not sure we will has a opening gap again this week.